Pacific Weather Swings and Climate Warming

Informative statement:

"WEATHER SWITCH

The Pacific has historically switched between La Nina phases and El Ninos, which have the opposite impact by triggering droughts in Australia and Southeast Asia.

"We've always had El Ninos and we've had natural variability but the background which is now operating is different," said David Jones, head of climate monitoring and prediction at the Australia Bureau of Meteorology in Melbourne.

"The first thing we can say with La Nina and El Nino is it is now happening in a hotter world," he told Reuters, adding that meant more evaporation from land and oceans, more moisture in the atmosphere and stronger weather patterns.

"So the El Nino droughts would be expected to be exacerbated and also La Nina floods because rainfall would be exacerbated," he said, though adding it would be some years before any climate change impact on both phenomena might become clear.

He said the current La Nina was different because of the warmest ocean temperatures on record around Australia and record humidity in eastern Australia over the past 12 months.

Prominent U.S. climate scientist Kevin Trenberth said the floods and the intense La Nina were a combination of factors.

He pointed to high ocean temperatures in the Indian Ocean near Indonesia early last year as well as the rapid onset of La Nina after the last El Nino ended in May.

"The rapid onset of La Nina meant the Asian monsoon was enhanced and the over 1 degree Celsius anomalies in sea surface temperatures led to the flooding in India and China in July and Pakistan in August," he told Reuters in an email.

He said a portion, about 0.5C, of the ocean temperatures around northern Australia, which are more than 1.5C above pre-1970 levels, could be attributed to global warming.

"The extra water vapor fuels the monsoon and thus alters the winds and the monsoon itself and so this likely increases the rainfall further," said Trenberth, head of the Climate Analysis Section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado.

"So it is easy to argue that 1 degree Celsius sea surface temperature anomalies gives 10 to 15 percent increase in rainfall," he added.

Some scientists said it was still too soon to draw a definite climate change link to the floods.

"It's a natural phenomena. We have no strong reason at the moment for saying this La Nina is any stronger than it would be even without humans," said Neville Nicholls of Monash University in Melbourne and president of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society." <<

http://www.newsdaily.com/stories/tre70b1xf-us-climate-australia-floods/

Originally posted by Taoman
Informative statement:

"WEATHER SWITCH

The Pacific has historically switched between La Nina phases and El Ninos, which have the opposite impact by triggering droughts in Australia and Southeast Asia.

"We've always had El Ninos and we've had natural variability but the background which is now operating is different," said David Jones, head of climate ...[text shortened]... <<

http://www.newsdaily.com/stories/tre70b1xf-us-climate-australia-floods/

Now we have the most powerful cyclone about to hit Northern Queensland.
Whereas before the path of these storms were difficult to predict, this one, will definately hit tonight at midnight +/- 1 hour.

The premier has come out and said that "Storm chasers" will not be rescued.

Whatever is happenning out there, I think all average rain falls and other weather conditions will never get back to "normal" in this state. Or the rest of the world it seems.
It is currently catgory 5 and poised to cross land around Townsville. Residents have been evacuated.
At least we have had warnings for this one. The recent flood(s) came so fast that most were unprepared.

Originally posted by karoly aczel
Now we have the most powerful cyclone about to hit Northern Queensland.
Whereas before the path of these storms were difficult to predict, this one, will definately hit tonight at midnight +/- 1 hour.

The premier has come out and said that "Storm chasers" will not be rescued.

Whatever is happenning out there, I think all average rain falls and o have had warnings for this one. The recent flood(s) came so fast that most were unprepared.

And at the same time another monstrous blizzard in the northern Americas. Its getting a tad more frequent. Its all about the warming seas (directly with cyclones, indirectly with blizzards). Nah says the skeptics, its always been like that, but no, now we see records being broken more and more.

If I was cartoonist like my son, I'd have a bloke sitting in his chair with his beer, as his roof and the Harbour Bridge go flying through the air behind him. "No mate, its all a load of b.s.!" - as his mate goes flying off too (with his beer in his hand).

My commiserations to all caught in such disruptive and destructive events. I think we will see such weather extremes happening more regularly. How much more can Queensland take Karoly? Its all about toughing it out, which is ok if now and then, but one can get punch drunk too, when its repeated too often. Not good.

Originally posted by Taoman
And at the same time another monstrous blizzard in the northern Americas. Its getting a tad more frequent. Its all about the warming seas (directly with cyclones, indirectly with blizzards). Nah says the skeptics, its always been like that, but no, now we see records being broken more and more.

If I was cartoonist like my son, I'd have a bloke sitting in ...[text shortened]... s ok if now and then, but one can get punch drunk too, when its repeated too often. Not good.

Fruit and vege prices have gone through the roof. We couldn't get bread for days. It just reminds you that the way our system is set up, if some road gets blocked by water somewhere, all the trucks are off the road, nothing gets through.

Wet season has started with a bang.

I'd hate to be living up in north queensland on some farm....it would really suck.

Originally posted by karoly aczel
Fruit and vege prices have gone through the roof. We couldn't get bread for days. It just reminds you that the way our system is set up, if some road gets blocked by water somewhere, all the trucks are off the road, nothing gets through.

Wet season has started with a bang.

I'd hate to be living up in north queensland on some farm....it would really suck.

And yet, these asssholes would refute any implication humans are a causative factor.
What happens when the ocean temp goes up 2 degrees C or 3 degrees C? When the glaciers all melt in Iceland or Greenland or the Himalayan's? When it's too late to do something about it without totally disrupting world civilization. It might already be too late.

Originally posted by Taoman
Nah says the skeptics, its always been like that, but no, now we see records being broken more and more.

I am not a climate change skeptic, but I am skeptic of any claims that rely on 'feelings', or a statistical analysis of the frequency of news reports. I have often heard people say that earthquake records are being broken more and more - which after a detailed analysis turns out not to be true.

So can you back up your claim with any actual statistics? Do you even know of any records that were broken? I am fairly sure the Australian floods were not a record.

Originally posted by sonhouse
And yet, these asssholes would refute any implication humans are a causative factor.
What happens when the ocean temp goes up 2 degrees C or 3 degrees C? When the glaciers all melt in Iceland or Greenland or the Himalayan's? When it's too late to do something about it without totally disrupting world civilization. It might already be too late.

Oh we are contributing everyday....
I hear and see it all around. My neighbour, (looks like KG fro Tenacious D), drives to the shop which is like 100m away

Now the problem is that we might get too complacent it seems. "The boy who cried wolf " syndrome.
Seems they got through that one relatively alright last night. Who knows what the future holds?

The powers that be are conflicted. Its obvious to me.
Not to mention Obhama...(Is that how you spell it?) . That guy is a muppet

Originally posted by twhitehead
I am not a climate change skeptic, but I am skeptic of any claims that rely on 'feelings', or a statistical analysis of the frequency of news reports. I have often heard people say that earthquake records are being broken more and more - which after a detailed analysis turns out not to be true.

So can you back up your claim with any actual statistics? ...[text shortened]... now of any records that were broken? I am fairly sure the Australian floods were not a record.

no, those Brisbane floods did not reach 1974 hieghts, but only just. And only because it stopped raining.

Still, the waters came up so fast that it seems predicting these events becomes harder for the "predicters".

100 year old records have been being broken all over the place in Queensland.. (temperatures and rainfall), in the last couple of years.
Or so I hear on the news...

Originally posted by karoly aczel
Still, the waters came up so fast that it seems predicting these events becomes harder for the "predicters".

Well if it is a serious problem then it is time to stop predicting and start preventing.

The reason for the flash floods is high runoff. There are two ways to deal with that:
1. Better land management - including farming practices and forestry practices. It is possible to use vegetation etc to decrease the amount and speed of runoff at the source before the water even gets to the rivers.
2. Flood control measures along the waterways. This could include dams, embankments etc.

The basic problem is that floods of this nature are 1 in 50 years and it might be more economical to live with the damage than to prevent it. Even if prevention is cheaper, humans tend not to plan that far ahead.

Originally posted by karoly aczel
Seems they got through that one relatively alright last night. Who knows what the future holds?

The powers that be, are you and me. The reason for being conflicted is the trade off between short term gain and long term risk. If it is easier to drive than to walk to the shops 100m away then we must balance that against the possible long term risk. This is complicated by our inability to accurately calculate the long term risks.

I find that the vast majority of 'climate change skeptics' are concerned about the short term costs of doing something about it. They wish to avoid short term costs and so downplay the possible long term risk - even if it means lying to do so.

Originally posted by twhitehead
The powers that be, are you and me. The reason for being conflicted is the trade off between short term gain and long term risk. If it is easier to drive than to walk to the shops 100m away then we must balance that against the possible long term risk. This is complicated by our inability to accurately calculate the long term risks.

I find that the vas ...[text shortened]... hort term costs and so downplay the possible long term risk - even if it means lying to do so.

Thnx for your comments ,as always.

Like I said, this guy looks like the fat one from Ten D, so the 100m walk would prolly do him and everyone else a lot of good.
Just sayin....


And the powers that be aren't just you and me, if it were, I'm sure we'd have some better systems in place.

Just think: if karoly and twitehead ruled the world?

Nah mate. They have dished out your dose of "democracy" for this life.
Though you never know where this "silent majority" is headed. Maybe they'll actually start voting in the U.S.

Originally posted by karoly aczel
Like I said, this guy looks like the fat one from Ten D, so the 100m walk would prolly do him and everyone else a lot of good.
Just sayin.....

I am sure you are right. But he must balance the short term gain (easily getting to the shops, minimal effort required) with long term risk (global warming, pollution, and early death doe to obesity).
The prevalence smoking and obesity shows that human nature is to frequently choose the short term gain in the equation even when the risks are fairly well known. When the risks are a bit less solid, or the short term reward seems valuable, people will go to great lengths to justify choosing the short term gain. This applies not only to issues like global warming but things like AIDS too.

And the powers that be aren't just you and me, if it were, I'm sure we'd have some better systems in place.
I am sure we would, but nevertheless we do have some power and 'the powers that be' are not just governments but also the opinions of the populace.

Though you never know where this "silent majority" is headed. Maybe they'll actually start voting in the U.S.
I am actually of the opinion that there is way to much focus on voting and that it is a deliberate strategy by politicians to keep your focus away from where it should be. I strongly believe that actual democracy takes place between elections. Sure, elections help to encourage politicians to consult the populace, but too much focus on elections is a bad thing.

Originally posted by twhitehead
I am not a climate change skeptic, but I am skeptic of any claims that rely on 'feelings', or a statistical analysis of the frequency of news reports. I have often heard people say that earthquake records are being broken more and more - which after a detailed analysis turns out not to be true.

So can you back up your claim with any actual statistics? ...[text shortened]... now of any records that were broken? I am fairly sure the Australian floods were not a record.

Yes records are being broken regularly of late. Can't get them at present but will later.
Of course individual extreme events do not a climate make, but its the various aspects together that are convincing indicators - the increasing repetition and shorter time spans becoming evident; the alignment of what is appearing with what climate change scientisits predicted; the major moves in other aspects of nature, animal breeding and behaviour patterns, along with an increasing rate of extinction of species.
The difficulty is the wait of decades to confirm the changes are climatic rather than swings of weather patterns will leave us less time to seek to adjust human emissions in a significant way. It may not be just them, but they sure won't be helping. I am quite pessimistic, and I am not normally a pessimistic person. Humanity will not be able to act together in effective ways as a planet until serious and dangerous deterioration forces us to. Regular temperatures over 50'C become very difficult to live in and will bring major societal disruption by the drains on power etc. as does severe snow storms in the US. We had our hottest recorded temp ever here in Victoria last year, and others have too. 8 out of the last 10 years are the hottest years recorded overall.

We have a natural swing with what is called the Southern Oscillation, between wetter periods and drought, related to surrounding seas and temperatures. The swings are still there but they are becoming more extreme and more unpredictable.
We have just emerged from one doosey of an extended drought with immense bushfires, and now we getting flooded out and areas are experiencing precipitation that has never been recorded. Many have never recorded flooding in our national recorded history. Not long really, but even the ancient indigenous do not remember such.

I could go into the global changes that are occurring but won't. It is all adding up.

I wish and hope that I am wrong. Its damn serious and everyone is acting business as usual and quarrelling. It'll all be too bloody late when we sort ourselves out.

Rave,rave, rave.

Originally posted by twhitehead
I am not a climate change skeptic, but I am skeptic of any claims that rely on 'feelings', or a statistical analysis of the frequency of news reports. I have often heard people say that earthquake records are being broken more and more - which after a detailed analysis turns out not to be true.

So can you back up your claim with any actual statistics? ...[text shortened]... now of any records that were broken? I am fairly sure the Australian floods were not a record.

This Australian BOM site outlines clearly recent data on climate records of late. The principal movers on this continent are the La Nina and El Nino dry/wet oscillations so we see bushfire/dry extremes some years and flood/wet extremes other years. Both are related to global warming, as is the increased snow in the US. Floods and snow extremes are what skeptics point to to debunk GW, yet it is right down the line of scientific outcomes to warming.

http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/media_releases/climate/change/20110105.shtml

Originally posted by Taoman
Of course individual extreme events do not a climate make, but its the various aspects together that are convincing indicators - the increasing repetition and shorter time spans becoming evident;

Yes, but I am looking for actual statistics not general feeling based on news reports.

Regular temperatures over 50'C become very difficult to live in and will bring major societal disruption by the drains on power etc. as does severe snow storms in the US.
Yet parts of the world live quite happily with high temperatures or snow storms. What society finds difficult is unusual weather because they are not prepared. If it becomes regular, then we will be prepared and the impact will be lower.

We have a natural swing with what is called the Southern Oscillation, between wetter periods and drought, related to surrounding seas and temperatures. The swings are still there but they are becoming more extreme and more unpredictable.
Again, I am interested in actual stats to that effect. Do you have any graph showing previous predictability and current unpredictability?

Not long really, but even the ancient indigenous do not remember such.
Are you saying the indigenous people have a longer recorded history than the government? I really doubt that.

I wish and hope that I am wrong. Its damn serious and everyone is acting business as usual and quarrelling. It'll all be too bloody late when we sort ourselves out.

Rave,rave, rave.
I personally am not that concerned about the weather. I think we can learn to live with it. I think the two biggest issues will be rising sea levels and the acidifying of the oceans.