17 Oct '08 20:29>
Originally posted by SwissGambitHow about this one:
This is clearly wrong.
Let's say I buy a lottery ticket. There are two possible results; I either win, or I don't win. Does that mean I have a 50/50 shot of winning?
Or let's say I roll a standard 6-sided die, and I want to know the probability of getting:
a) A roll of 5 or higher
b) A roll less than 5
Again, only two possible results, but is the probability 50/50?
a) c guy1 doesn't understand anything about probability.
b) c guy1 knows at least something about probability.
Therefore there is a 50/50 chance that he hasn't got a clue- meaning that his estimate for the existence of God only has a 50% chance of being right, and when we add these probabilities together, the chance of God existing has already dropped to a mere 25% or 1 in 4.