24 May '11 19:55>4 edits
Originally posted by jaywill=================================
[b]==========================
Well lets see who chickens out first.
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What's that suppose to mean ? If one has nothing else to do for the rest of his life but to go back and forth on this Internet argument, he has not "chickened out" ?
Some kind of test of endurance here ?
============================= is really impressively thin. It will be hard for you to undermind this realization.
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Which is more likely:
1. You winning the lottery six times in a row.
2. The following six people winning the lottery in the order given: James Connelly, John Jackson, Gordon Winston, Kenneth Smith, Vanessa Williams, Jane Merredith.
Assume that both you and the above six people all bought one ticket in each lottery.
================================== [/b]
Seems you demand some answer from me on this. Okay.
I assume that these six names are arbitrary. I don't know if these are celebrities whose names I should recognize.
But regardless, these six people win six lotteries? And they win in the order of their names.
Which is more improbable ? Not sure.
This is the way I would go about finding out.
I would want to know how many people beside me got tickets.
How many tickets there were.
You have to use multiplication to decide how many ways the first ticket could be won, times how many ways the second ticket could be one ... to the Nth ticket.
N tickets purchased by N people of which I am number something.
A long permutation calculation would give the odds of me getting the ticket.
You end up dividing with some huge number as the denominator into the 1 win (mine) as numerator. I think this has to all be multiplied by six for six wins before the division. And I think you have to figure in how many times the game was played of which these six are a consecutive group of wins for me.
Something similar would have to be multiplied out for the six individuals, knowing the same info. You would have to account for the exact order that you specified.
I have not guessed here. I have told you something of the kind of method I would use.
Let me know when I'm suppose to get a realization that biological life amidst the cosmos is no big deal.