Originally posted by epiphinehas
[b]you are making the dreadful all-to-common fallacy of probability here of completely confusing and completely failing to make the distinction between two DIFFERENT types of probability; specifically, the probability of a process occurring that inevitably gives an unlikely outcome and the probability of that unlikely outcome being whatever it is.
remain, etc., etc.
Your case against faith is misguided and muddled.[/b]
“..There is no confusing of the two different probabilities because I only ever referred to one of them, the probability of the outcome. Of course the probability of the process of picking the lottery numbers is virtually guaranteed to provide an improbable outcome, but for my purposes that is irrelevant. ...”
but it is relevant! To see why, lets see what you say next:
“...What matters is that the news reporting the exact set of numbers P had picked is extraordinary considering the odds against. ...”
-which is totally irrelevant since just such an unlikely outcome of this kind was expected -unless you confuse the two probabilities so as to THINK it is relevant.
“...From P's perspective, the fact that the lottery is virtually certain to have picked some improbable number doesn't factor in; according to Hume's in principle argument, based on the improbability of P's number being the winning number, P is right to require enough evidence of the news agency's reliability to counter-balance that improbability. ...”
no it isn't! Because nobody made a prediction that P would win BEFORE he won ( that WOULD require a lot of evidence to justify ) and we KNOW that whomever wins will INEVITABLY have had a low probability of winning -so no need to think you need additional evidence to counter-balance that improbability of THAT PARTICULAR person winning.
“...If verifiable evidence were the standard in terms of past events, we might as well disregard as false much of world history. ...”
that is simply not true. Where did you get that from? We have verifiable ( physical ) evidence of, for example, evolution, even though we have no current eye witnesses of species change.
“...verification is not the issue. What is at issue is the irrational standard of evidence for miracles you've proposed; namely, that no eye-witness account (e.g., the NT) is sufficient to establish the occurrence of a miracle. ...”
but verifiable ( preferably physical but can be verifiable by some other means ) evidence WOULD be sufficient to establish the occurrence of a miracle -so where is this evidence?
“...Again, how does one "make" oneself believe in something? ...”
rationally or irrationally?
“...how does that make it possible to believe in God? I don't think anyone really has a choice concerning what they believe or don't believe. ...”
that would only be true if everybody was rational. But they are not. Irrational people CAN choose what to believe by whatever twisted logic they employ for such a function.
“...I see here that you consider God's existence "absurd". Did you choose to believe this? ...”
No, because I am rational. Not everyone is rational.
“...Could you likewise choose to believe in God's existence despite its being absurd to you? ...”
only if I was BOTH irrational AND wanted there to be a God. But I am not irrational so I cannot. Some people ARE irrational so CAN convince themselves that there is a God.
“...IF SO, you'd have to commit yourself to the notion that evidence and justification play no part in your current beliefs, ...” (my emphasis)
But it ISN'T “SO”, is it!
“...Otherwise, you are simply presenting a slipper slope fallacy (if you believe in God, this will lead to hatred, which will lead to violence, etc.). ..”
did I say this? Answer no. and that is simply false; there is no “slipper slope” as you claim above.
“...It is not AT ALL the case that faith inevitably leads to any of the horrible, terrible outcomes you cite. ..”
If you read my posts you will see I never claimed this so that point is irrelevant to my argument and so all my assertions still stand.
“...I understand that you may believe that religious faith, in itself, is dangerous. The problem is, you have no evidence of this. ...”
I have already presented evidence for this in the form of an argument which you have yet to invalidate.
“...If all faith disappeared from the face of the Earth, borders would still remain, supply and demand would remain, wealth inequalities would remain, hatred would remain, conquest would remain, racism would remain, etc., etc. ...”
-and there would almost certainly be less evil actions for evil people would find it harder to convince themselves that such action is excusable.