1. Standard memberkaroly aczel
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    30 Sep '13 18:13
    This is the name of a book by some scientists that predict that as human systems become more complex, (resulting from the processes playing out that man has put into place via industrialization, technology and the net, transport and less reliance on physical activity),where the near future will be impossible to predict.

    So does anyone have any predictions for the world in the next 20 years?

    All I know is that these years since industrialization to now, with the potential change for clean and reusable energy imminent, these years will be known as "the Oil Years".

    I certainly hope that the human race doesn't have to go backward before it can go forward again.
    Since the turn of 1900 the human race has been increased its population exponentially (seen the graph?) , made life better via technology which in turn has enabled nearly every person to learn about the world they live in.
    Now we hope everyone has realized that some guy on the other side of the world is prolly more like we are than once thought.

    With a bit of luck and some persistence from people that have long been aware of this planets ills, we may just step into a better, more peaceful future, although how this may manifest is becoming increasingly difficult to see - or so the authors claim
  2. Dublin Ireland
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    30 Sep '13 18:47
    Originally posted by karoly aczel
    This is the name of a book by some scientists that predict that as human systems become more complex, (resulting from the processes playing out that man has put into place via industrialization, technology and the net, transport and less reliance on physical activity),where the near future will be impossible to predict.

    So does anyone have any predic ...[text shortened]... though how this may manifest is becoming increasingly difficult to see - or so the authors claim
    I predict that the next big war will be between the Muslims and

    wait for it......................


    no not the Jews...........

    the Christians.


    I predict that the west will grow tired of all these Islamic terrorists
    and will seek them all out and destroy them.

    This will also involve attacks on Muslims which are not terrorists
    resulting in a global war between the followers of Jesus
    against the followers of Mohammed.
  3. Standard memberkaroly aczel
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    30 Sep '13 18:511 edit
    Originally posted by johnnylongwoody
    I predict that the next big war will be between the Muslims and

    wait for it......................


    no not the Jews...........

    the Christians.


    I predict that the west will grow tired of all these Islamic terrorists
    and will seek them all out and destroy them.

    This will also involve attacks on Muslims which are not terrorists
    resulting in a global war between the followers of Jesus
    against the followers of Mohammed.
    Thats definately a possibility.

    Extremists from all sides who display intolerance and fascism and threaten to willfully corrupt the world will hopefully evolve.... or develop Alzeimers

    Perhaps the key suicide bombers will die from the mysterious illness that killed Bruce Lee and this will be seen as a sign by those type of aggressive Muslims to knock it off (?)
  4. Standard memberAgerg
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    30 Sep '13 19:232 edits
    Originally posted by karoly aczel
    This is the name of a book by some scientists that predict that as human systems become more complex, (resulting from the processes playing out that man has put into place via industrialization, technology and the net, transport and less reliance on physical activity),where the near future will be impossible to predict.

    So does anyone have any predic ...[text shortened]... though how this may manifest is becoming increasingly difficult to see - or so the authors claim
    Given that we are better fed, better housed, have better health, etc ... then new births far outstrip the number of deaths. As such the demands on a finite amount of resources that the earth is equipped to provide are accelerating along with population growth.
    Globally we may well have exceeded some natural equilibrium point already and are merely compounding future catastrophe as we find new and artificial ways to procure new resources (which too will eventually run out) thus prolonging population acceleration.
    Supposing we manage to stave off major wars, engineer against natural disasters, protect against pandemics, and so on we *will* reach a point where the earth finally collects on its debts - and on that day I assert things will become very bad, very fast, for lots of people.

    That we will still have a nice world to live in 20 years from now seems fairly optimistic to me.
  5. Standard memberkaroly aczel
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    30 Sep '13 19:271 edit
    Originally posted by Agerg
    Given that we are better fed, better housed, have better health, etc ... then new births far outstrip the number of deaths. As such the demands on a finite amount of resources that the earth is equipped to provide are accelerating along with population growth.
    We may well have exceeded a natural equilibrium point and are merely compounding future catastrophe ...[text shortened]... That we will still have a nice world to live in 20 years from now seems fairly optimistic to me.
    "That we will have a nice world to live in 20 years from now seems fairly optimistic."
    I thought this about 10 years ago and things are more or less the same in most countries. so another 20 years can flicker by pretty quickly without that much changing essentially.

    of course eventually we will have to move off this planet because it will become unihabitable, but for now the problems still seem to lie largely with one another getting along rather than nature.
  6. Standard memberAgerg
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    30 Sep '13 19:362 edits
    Originally posted by karoly aczel
    "That we will have a nice world to live in 20 years from now seems fairly optimistic."
    I thought this about 10 years ago and things are more or less the same in most countries. so another 20 years can flicker by pretty quickly without that much changing essentially.

    of course eventually we will have to move off this planet because it will become uni ...[text shortened]... or now the problems still seem to lie largely with one another getting along rather than nature.
    Our population boom is just as much a bubble as the financial bubble that finally burst in 2008. I'm sure many people thought things were going pretty well in 2007; equally, many people will think we're doing pretty well now.

    And I think we are way way too far away from the point where colonizing other planets at such scale that we fall back to equilibrium is possible.

    If there is to be a correction - I'm placing my bets on disease more than I am war.
  7. Standard memberkaroly aczel
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    30 Sep '13 19:501 edit
    Originally posted by Agerg
    Our population boom is just as much a bubble as the financial bubble that finally burst in 2008. I'm sure many people thought things were going pretty well in 2007; equally, many people will think we're doing pretty well now.

    And I think we are way way too far away from the point where colonizing other planets at such scale that we fall back to equilibrium is possible.
    Long time before colonizing planets no doubt.

    Of course you mention fair points here but I would like to question what really equates with "better" and "happier"? Because any talk of "economy", in the system I've grown accustomed to, only leads to imbalance and short cuts that may or may not be handled by future generations.
    If the old capitalist beast dies then so what?
    Not all revolutions are bloody or long.
    Czeckoslovakia comes to mind.

    Also you never know when some scientists discovers or invents some technology that will revolusionize human life.
  8. Standard memberAgerg
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    30 Sep '13 20:107 edits
    Originally posted by karoly aczel
    Long time before colonizing planets no doubt.

    Of course you mention fair points here but I would like to question what really equates with "better" and "happier"? Because any talk of "economy", in the system I've grown accustomed to, only leads to imbalance and short cuts that may or may not be handled by future generations.
    If the old capitalist b ...[text shortened]... ow when some scientists discovers or invents some technology that will revolusionize human life.
    I'm not so sure capitalism will ever die to be honest, it is a natural, and stable system (survival of the fittest) as opposed to artificial systems such as socialism (which I am inclined towards saying is a better system - but far from perfect).

    As for whether scientists will find new ways of improving and extending our lives - I am in little doubt that they will but then with respect to my first response in this thread that will only have the effect of delaying (and so magnifiying) a collapse in the future.

    Indeed once the ratio: supply / demand, becomes so low that the cost of food, heating, shelter, etc... is set beyond the ability of most of us to pay then you can forget your i-holograms, and hover-cars; the single most important questions on most of our minds will be one of:

    Who's got all the food? who else knows who? and how do I get it first!?
    or
    Do I have enough yet? who wants to take it? and how do I stop them!?

    and regardless of which group you fall under, these questions will be asked on a global scale.
  9. Standard memberRajk999
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    30 Sep '13 21:111 edit
    Originally posted by karoly aczel
    This is the name of a book by some scientists that predict that as human systems become more complex, (resulting from the processes playing out that man has put into place via industrialization, technology and the net, transport and less reliance on physical activity),where the near future will be impossible to predict.

    So does anyone have any predic ...[text shortened]... though how this may manifest is becoming increasingly difficult to see - or so the authors claim
    I will agree with the good news prophets for the next 20 years. Since WWII it has been good news since. Rather than try to predict forward as Agerg did [and I would agree with
    most of his predictions] it is useful to go back 20 years, and 40 yrs etc to see where the world came from

    For those who can remember 20 yrs ago in 1993 life was not as good as it was in most parts of the world. There was far more war, famine, drought and lower standard of living in many parts of the world.

    In 1973 .. poverty and starvation in many parts of the world, poor medical care, low incomes, cold war, aparteid in SA, the scourge of comminusm etc

    In 1953 .. I shudder to think what life was like then ..

    In 1933 .. get out the history books and read what real suffering was like in the Great Depression.

    Anyway 2033 .. the world will be a great place to be. hope Im still alive to see it.
  10. Standard memberAgerg
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    30 Sep '13 21:502 edits
    Originally posted by Rajk999
    I will agree with the good news prophets for the next 20 years. Since WWII it has been good news since. Rather than try to predict forward as Agerg did [and I would agree with
    most of his predictions] it is useful to go back 20 years, and 40 yrs etc to see where the world came from

    For those who can remember 20 yrs ago in 1993 life was not as good as it ...[text shortened]... ression.

    Anyway 2033 .. the world will be a great place to be. hope Im still alive to see it.
    Before someone beats me to it, having looked closer at the data I should acknowledge that population growth is not accelerating as I first stated (so I will) - but it is still an increasing function - and looks set to stay that way for the considerable future (as for the logistic equation and what not ... we just need the right breakthrough, the right organisation, and boom! population growth accelerates again (because who thinks birth control is a good thing!?) - and so I'm suspicious that we're heading for a maximum of 10 billion ).

    All the while we will be draining more resources and destroying (via deforestation or pollution) that which helps to maintain supply.
  11. Standard memberRajk999
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    01 Oct '13 02:34
    Originally posted by Agerg
    Before someone beats me to it, having looked closer at the data I should acknowledge that population growth is not accelerating as I first stated (so I will) - but it is still an increasing function - and looks set to stay that way for the considerable future (as for the logistic equation and what not ... we just need the right breakthrough, the right organisa ...[text shortened]... e resources and destroying (via deforestation or pollution) that which helps to maintain supply.
    One of the most important controls on population growth is economic prosperity. The countries who have previously been accused of massive and expanding pop are now in a state of increased prosperity and development ie India and China. For sure that will slow their pop growth rate in the next 20 to 30 years. The African countries will follow eventually.
  12. Standard memberkaroly aczel
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    01 Oct '13 05:091 edit
    Originally posted by Agerg
    I'm not so sure capitalism will ever die to be honest, it is a natural, and stable system (survival of the fittest) as opposed to artificial systems such as socialism (which I am inclined towards saying is a better system - but far from perfect).

    As for whether scientists will find new ways of improving and extending our lives - I am in little doubt that th ...[text shortened]...
    and regardless of which group you fall under, these questions will be asked on a global scale.
    I understand the gist of your point. People have been talking about future nanotech where people can make anything out of carbon or whatever, even food.
    But we both know that every human could be adequately fed now if we measure how much food we need against some other collosal government spendings, particularly the military. No. there are forces that are not just going to go away and relinquish power. (Of course I believe a proper education to be virtually mandatory as well.)

    I'm not interested in extending lifespans much further via science, however if people stay living long (say 90-100) due to living healthier lives (due to better living conditions), well that's different.


    2 Years ago when we had major flooding in Brisbane city and our Woolworths ran out of bread in three days and the shelves looked about a quarter full. So I am a little acquainted with survival scenarios, however I dont think most other urban dwellers would have a clue what to do if the shops ran out of food.

    But that's beside your point. These(food) questions will be asked because we are conditioned to respond to such primal "givens". It would seem totally counter-intuitive to think that we would run out of food in the future, when we've competently progressed in agriculture,etc.

    And yet your point remains , hanging there because of it's weight.
  13. Standard memberkaroly aczel
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    01 Oct '13 05:181 edit
    Originally posted by Rajk999
    I will agree with the good news prophets for the next 20 years. Since WWII it has been good news since. Rather than try to predict forward as Agerg did [and I would agree with
    most of his predictions] it is useful to go back 20 years, and 40 yrs etc to see where the world came from

    For those who can remember 20 yrs ago in 1993 life was not as good as it ...[text shortened]... ression.

    Anyway 2033 .. the world will be a great place to be. hope Im still alive to see it.
    I "feel" that if the world genuinely improves, permanently for the better,(for common sense if not anything else), then it will be weird in the sense that it will be an adjustment that we've never had.

    Again, the change should be as swift and as smooth as possible. Linger too long in an 'adjustment phase' and other forces may again put their spin/religion on our human condition, play on our fears , and 'make us sign contracts without reading the fine print'.

    I genuinely hope you live til 2033 🙂
  14. Standard memberkaroly aczel
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    01 Oct '13 05:24
    Originally posted by Agerg
    Before someone beats me to it, having looked closer at the data I should acknowledge that population growth is not accelerating as I first stated (so I will) - but it is still an increasing function - and looks set to stay that way for the considerable future (as for the logistic equation and what not ... we just need the right breakthrough, the right organisa ...[text shortened]... e resources and destroying (via deforestation or pollution) that which helps to maintain supply.
    Again, some natural disaster may "cull" the population or even some radical policy (like China's one child policy) to directly address a problem that may cause misery for the entire population.... the universe does seem to have a lot of balance in it after all.

    I believe when I last looked at that population curve it had flattened quite significantly in the last 10-20 years, as opposed to the 70-80's where it looked like it would just go vertical if it turned up any further!!!
  15. SubscriberAThousandYoung
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    03 Oct '13 18:41
    Originally posted by johnnylongwoody
    I predict that the next big war will be between the Muslims and

    wait for it......................


    no not the Jews...........

    the Christians.


    I predict that the west will grow tired of all these Islamic terrorists
    and will seek them all out and destroy them.

    This will also involve attacks on Muslims which are not terrorists
    resulting in a global war between the followers of Jesus
    against the followers of Mohammed.
    "The Muslims" and "The Christians"?

    You think the Queen of England is going to support the Pope when he calls a Crusade against an alliance between Iran and Saudi Arabia?

    Right...
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