Originally posted by shortcircuit Big money Boston Red Sox don't make it in and small market Tampa does.

Big money Atlanta Braves don't make it in and mid market St. Louis does.

In the NL only ONE big money team, Philadelphia, out of 4 make playoffs.

In the AL only ONE big money team, NY, out of 4 make the playoffs.

Your theory is WRONG!!!!!!!!!!!

Except his theory doesn't deny anomalies and outliers.... I don't know whodey or the debates that have raged in this forum except for what I've seen recently and I don't see anything wrong with the theory that big money teams have a much better chance of winning the big dance. I wish it were a guarantee that big money makes championships though because a few years back the Mariners had the biggest payroll in the MLB and still sucked.

Originally posted by tomtom232 Except his theory doesn't deny anomalies and outliers.... I don't know whodey or the debates that have raged in this forum except for what I've seen recently and I don't see anything wrong with the theory that big money teams have a much better chance of winning the big dance. I wish it were a guarantee that big money makes championships though because a few years back the Mariners had the biggest payroll in the MLB and still sucked.

Anomalies??? Look at the last few years.
You would be incorrect.

The Yankees have been the big spenders for years, yet have only won a few times.

Originally posted by shortcircuit Anomalies??? Look at the last few years.
You would be incorrect.

The Yankees have been the big spenders for years, yet have only won a few times.

There has been only one year since 1995 that the Yankees have NOT made the postseason (2008). During that time they've been to the World Series SEVEN times, while winning it FIVE times. The next closest are the Florida Marlins and the Boston Red Sox who have each won two World Series during that same time span.

There are 12 teams that have not been to the World Series at all since 1995, and Pittsburgh, Washington/Montreal, Toronto and Kansas City have not been to the postseason even once during that period.

I'd say the evidence is clear: big money does buy more World Series victories than not.

So, to recap: in the last 17 years the Yankees have made it to the postseason 16 times. They've won the ALDS 9 times (with this year pending). They've won the ALCS 7 times, and the World Series 5 times.

Money may not buy you love, but it sure buys World Series rings.

Originally posted by rwingett So, to recap: in the last 17 years the Yankees have made it to the postseason 16 times. They've won the ALDS 9 times (with this year pending). They've won the ALCS 7 times, and the World Series 5 times.

Money may not buy you love, but it sure buys World Series rings.

You are speaking of the #1 spender. Everyone is aware of them.

They won 5 out of 17.

How many times did non-big money teams win it during that time span?....Half??

You can look up the winners and tally them.
Several big spenders have not won it during that time period as well.
This only bolsters my argument.

"Big money does not guarantee you anything." Sure, it does improve your odds.
Ask Boston and Atlanta how it helped them this year?

Originally posted by shortcircuit "Big money does not guarantee you anything." Sure, it does improve your odds.
Ask Boston and Atlanta how it helped them this year?

That's the whole point. There are no guarantees, but it DOES improve your odds. In the long run, big money teams will win more World Series than small money teams. The point is indisputable.

Originally posted by rwingett That's the whole point. There are no guarantees, but it DOES improve your odds. In the long run, big money teams will win more World Series than small money teams. The point is indisputable.

I never said it didn't improve the odds. Whodey said it guaranteed the teams making
the playoffs......which is why I started this post.

Please note this year, 75% of the teams that made the playoffs were not big money teams.

Originally posted by rwingett That's the whole point. There are no guarantees, but it DOES improve your odds. In the long run, big money teams will win more World Series than small money teams. The point is indisputable.

And, no, it is not indisputable that big money teams will win more World Series.

Look it up. They will win several, but I don't believe they are winning half of them.
Flipping a coin has the same odds.

Originally posted by shortcircuit And, no, it is not indisputable that big money teams will win more World Series.

Look it up. They will win several, but I don't believe they are winning half of them.
Flipping a coin has the same odds.

New York and Boston have represented the AL in the World Series 9 out of the last 16 times. They've won 7 of the last 16. There's no coin in the world that could replicate that level of success.

Originally posted by rwingett New York and Boston have represented the AL in the World Series 9 out of the last 16 times. They've won 7 of the last 16. There's no coin in the world that could replicate that level of success.

A coin has no memory, yet the odds of flipping heads on any flip is 50-50.

It is possible to hit 16 in a row, or to miss 16 in a row.
Odds are, it will be close to 50-50, which would exceed 7/16

Originally posted by shortcircuit A coin has no memory, yet the odds of flipping heads on any flip is 50-50.

It is possible to hit 16 in a row, or to miss 16 in a row.
Odds are, it will be close to 50-50, which would exceed 7/16

Huh?

All things being equal, every team has a 1 in 30 chance of winning the World Series at the start of the year. That's a 3.33% chance for each team to win the Series on any given year. A team that wins it 5 out of 16 years is clearly exceeding what could be expected by random chance. The chance of rolling a 30 sided dice and having it come up with a '1' five out of sixteen times, while not statistically impossible, is clearly very small.

Originally posted by shortcircuit Big money Boston Red Sox don't make it in and small market Tampa does.

Big money Atlanta Braves don't make it in and mid market St. Louis does.

In the NL only ONE big money team, Philadelphia, out of 4 make playoffs.

In the AL only ONE big money team, NY, out of 4 make the playoffs.

Your theory is WRONG!!!!!!!!!!!

What has Whodey actually said in the past? Did Whodey say that every high payroll team makes it to the playoffs? Nope. Did Whodey say that every low payroll team does not make it to the playoffs? Nope.

To be clear, ONCE AGAIN, Whodey makes the claim that a hand full of high payroll teams do not have winning seasons and a hand full of low payroll teams DO not have a winning season.

At the end of the day, this year will be no different and I will wager with 99.9% certainty that the Red Sox will be in the playoffs next year. In addition, I wager with around 90% certaintly that the winner of the World Series will be a high payroll team

All things being equal, every team has a 1 in 30 chance of winning the World Series at the start of the year. That's a 3.33% chance for each team to win the Series on any given year. A team that wins it 5 out of 16 years is clearly exceeding what could be expected by random chance. The chance of rolling a 30 sided dice and having it come up with a '1' five out of sixteen times, while not statistically impossible, is clearly very small.

In my example it is one team either wins or does not win the world series.
That is a 1-1. It is an either / or scenario, just like flipping a coin.

You are trying to say that all teams stand in their way is 30-1
which is akin to saying hitting heads 30 times in a row.

Originally posted by shortcircuit I never said it didn't improve the odds. Whodey said it guaranteed the teams making
the playoffs......which is why I started this post.

Please note this year, 75% of the teams that made the playoffs were not big money teams.

No I did not. You failed once again to READ what I posted.

Great balls of fire, that's it, the boy does not know how to read.