Originally posted by no1marauder
BS. Due to the fact that the politicians were willing to run up to the last minute with a (still) possible default. If default was possible NOW, it's possible in the future. Before the recent shenanigans, this was almost unthinkable.
Agreed. But I’m not sure that the rating agencies would even be threatening a downgrade absent a combination of the current shenanigans, and their desire to redeem themselves for their utter failure with regard to the multi-tranched CDOs by “getting tough”, as they have in Europe (and, frankly, I don’t know why they should be trusted to get it right this time around). Further, absent the current shenanigans, the threat of a real downgrade by the markets would not be there—and wasn’t until quite recently. Any sign of a willingness to renege on
any of the governments bills will, however, raise that threat level.
An article in last week’s
Economist pointed out that investors (domestic and foreign) were still willing to acquire Treasury bonds (i.e., lend to the government), and Treasuries had not yet (as little as a week ago) lost their demand as a relatively safe security—any default, and they likely will.
“Whenever investors seek shelter, even from an American slowdown, they choose Treasuries, and thus the dollar. … American cannot wait forever to rein in its debt. It needs to lay out credible plans for medium-term deficit reduction. But it has more leeway to delay cuts [that would be fiscally damaging in the near term] than most countries
thanks to continued demand for its debt. Another year of recovery will help confidence more than a premature swing of the fiscal axe.” (
The Economist, July 16th 2011; brackets and italics mine.)
Further, this “let’s make sure we revisit this whole thing in six months” idea will only continue uncertainty, in the face of which businesses are still unlikely to engage capital in much long-term real capital investment—a further drag on the economy and employment.
All the partisans of “austerity now” and reneging on the government’s accounts payable, seem to think that
they are immune from the impact of cuts—e.g., that their retirement savings, ability to get a car loan, etc. (or even keep their job in the face of the austerity wave). My prediction (which I hope does not get an empirical test) is that the people of Main Street will suffer from these “shenanigans” more than the people of Wall Street (again). The best thing would be to do away with this charade of the debt ceiling altogether; second best is to just raise it without prejudice; third best is, sadly, probably a compromise based on something like the Reid bill. But I also share your pessimism.