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Employment Report Blues

Employment Report Blues

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@Mott-The-Hoople said
Every dept has a HEAD person that calls the final shots.
And Trump a phenomenally inept mind with very little insight into any particular subject is the Head Person?


Some leftover Biden appointee claims the figures are false. She previously claimed Bidenomics was awesome and had the figures to prove it....until Biden was out and it turns out she was giving us happy thought snow cones and bullchit figures.
She's gone now, no worries, we'll just stick to the real numbers.


@Cliff-Mashburn said
Some leftover Biden appointee claims the figures are false. She previously claimed Bidenomics was awesome and had the figures to prove it....until Biden was out and it turns out she was giving us happy thought snow cones and bullchit figures.
She's gone now, no worries, we'll just stick to the real numbers.
Are you guys really that stupid and/or gullible?

No one claimed the initial estimates were set in stone and they are routinely updated as more complete data is obtained. I gave you the links explaining the process. And this head of the BLS was the same one who was in office when there were large negative adjustments (over 800,000 in a year) under Biden. It may well be that structural changes in the economy after COVID make the flash estimates less precise - a technical issue requiring actual people trained in such matters to examine.

No evidence has been offered that the BLS chief did anything wrong but give out numbers that Trump didn't like.


@Cliff-Mashburn said
Some leftover Biden appointee claims the figures are false. She previously claimed Bidenomics was awesome and had the figures to prove it....until Biden was out and it turns out she was giving us happy thought snow cones and bullchit figures.
She's gone now, no worries, we'll just stick to the real numbers.
Rather hilariously, the White House, in an ignorant distorted hit piece against McEntarfer yesterday, nevertheless admitted the prior estimates were "faulty". https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/2025/08/bls-has-lengthy-history-of-inaccuracies-incompetence/

Needless to say, this contradicted Trump's foot stamping Truth Social post.


Although this is a bit dated, it seems to reflect still existing BLS practice:

" The estimate of employment change is based on a
monthly survey of about 560,000 worksites, selected
to represent the millions of businesses throughout the
country. (For simplicity, we will refer to worksites as
businesses even though many individual businesses
provide data for multiple worksites.) In the survey sample,
businesses report the total number of people who worked
or received pay during the pay period that includes the
12th of the month. Although BLS uses a variety of methods
to gather these reports as quickly as possible, many
businesses do not have their payroll data ready to report
by the scheduled date that BLS initially releases the data. In
2012, for example, the average collection rate at the time
of the initial release was 73.1 percent.


The initial estimate of job change for a month is based
on the growth or loss of jobs at the businesses that have
reported their data. Generally, BLS assumes that the
employment situation at businesses that had reported is
representative of the situation at those that had not yet
reported. BLS continues to collect outstanding reports
from the businesses in the sample as it prepares a second
and then a third estimate for the month. With each
subsequent estimate, more businesses have provided their
information. In 2012, the average collection rate at the
time of the third estimate for a month was 94.6 percent.
(See chart 1.)
"

" the key thing for users to remember is that the revised estimates represent
a more complete and therefore more accurate picture of
developments in the job market."

https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-2/pdf/revisions-to-jobs-numbers.pdf


@no1marauder said
Are you guys really that stupid and/or gullible?

No one claimed the initial estimates were set in stone and they are routinely updated as more complete data is obtained. I gave you the links explaining the process. And this head of the BLS was the same one who was in office when there were large negative adjustments (over 800,000 in a year) under Biden. It may well be ...[text shortened]... has been offered that the BLS chief did anything wrong but give out numbers that Trump didn't like.
They don’t want to face facts.
The narrative has to fit the pre-existing story line they’ve sunk their teeth into.

Anything else cannot be true.

2 edits

@Mott-The-Hoople said
You mean like during covid the number of deaths attributed to covid was extremely high, the number of deaths from heart attacks, regular flu (etc) plummeted.

Dont play the fool
False. The rightmost two data points on this graph show heart disease mortality numbers for 2020 and 2021:
https://www.consumershield.com/articles/how-many-people-die-of-heart-disease-each-year
(Source: World Health Organization Mortality Database)

Heart disease mortality in fact increased during those two years.

As for the flu plummeting, that's an easy one: during the pandemic people were mingling less, staying further apart, and wearing masks.


@Cliff-Mashburn said
Some leftover Biden appointee claims the figures are false. She previously claimed Bidenomics was awesome and had the figures to prove it....until Biden was out and it turns out she was giving us happy thought snow cones and bullchit figures.
She's gone now, no worries, we'll just stick to the real numbers.
The economy is so good right now that I'm firing the BLS Commissioner for reporting numbers so grim I refuse to believe them, and also demanding the Fed cut rates typically only done during a recession.


@Mott-The-Hoople said
Turns out another liberal appointed by biden is caught abusing their job due to TDS…nothing to see here.

How many times are you gullible folks gonna fall for this?
Don't spill that glass, it's full to the rim with irony.


@Mott-The-Hoople said
Every dept has a HEAD person that calls the final shots.
And Trump is the HEAD of all HEADs.


@wildgrass said
The economy is so good right now that I'm firing the BLS Commissioner for reporting numbers so grim I refuse to believe them, and also demanding the Fed cut rates typically only done during a recession.
We couldn't make this sh-- up.


@shavixmir said
They don’t want to face facts.
The narrative has to fit the pre-existing story line they’ve sunk their teeth into.

Anything else cannot be true.
At what point does reality stream through and the actual cost of living starts to destroy this narrative. Or do people simply refuse to believe what they see and say gas still costs $1.90?


@kmax87 said
At what point does reality stream through and the actual cost of living starts to destroy this narrative. Or do people simply refuse to believe what they see and say gas still costs $1.90?
Reality has become subjective to these people. If the party says A on day one, and then B on day 2, then the actual truth has no baring on the slippery scale of experience.

What then matters is what the reality of the day or moment is. And the all gnawing fear that it could be different tomorrow, just makes them cling to the daily truth such as it is.


@shavixmir said
They don’t want to face facts.
The narrative has to fit the pre-existing story line they’ve sunk their teeth into.

Anything else cannot be true.
That, and "whatever Trump says must be true."

Even though he lies all day every day.


@shavixmir said
Reality has become subjective to these people. If the party says A on day one, and then B on day 2, then the actual truth has no baring on the slippery scale of experience.

What then matters is what the reality of the day or moment is. And the all gnawing fear that it could be different tomorrow, just makes them cling to the daily truth such as it is.
At least we had about 400 years of science and enlightenment thinking. It won't be long and witch trials will be prime time.

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