GOP disapproval hits 59 percent

Originally posted by USArmyParatrooper
He's a moron who fancies himself an intellectual.

According to his chart McCain received 46 percent of the vote for high school graduates, 47 percent for those with "some college", and 48 percent for college graduates. A single percentage point increase at each level is statistically insignificant, especially when you consider these polls typic ...[text shortened]... range. What's more, his votes dropping to 40% for post graduates IS statically significant.

To be fair though, those results have been fairly consistent over the last 5 or so elections. The chances they are due to random statistical fluctuations appear slim.

Originally posted by FMF
Well he is now saying that an aberration does NOT exist in isolation and that it must be analyzed by looking at what it aberrates from. He has done a 180 degree about face.

I gave you a shot to try and some make kind of point. 5 or 6 pages later you're still rambling. I'm getting bored and tired.

Originally posted by no1marauder
Trying to wade through his "reasoning", I think what he is actually trying to claim is that McCain got progressively higher percentages of the vote (though the increases were slight after the "High school dropout" to "high school graduate" increase) but that the result that his percentage dropped among post grads is an "aberration". In fact, that result ...[text shortened]... alidates his general claim that McCain percentage increased with the voters' education.

You kind of starting to get it.

Look, if you flipped a coin 1000 times and it came up heads every single time and then on the 1001st it came up tails- would you conclude that the 1000 heads were blind luck or that the tails was an aberration?

In other words, would you think the coin was legitimate and somehow you beat the odds or would you conclude that something was wrong with the coin and somehow,one time, it accidently landed on tails?

The trend points in one direction. Yes there are data points that don't line up perfectly but that doesnt change anything. They almost never line up in a perfectly straight line.

Originally posted by USArmyParatrooper
LOL!

When you can atually understand 1/10 of whqt I'm saying without having it explained to you 15 times then you can laugh....maybe.

Originally posted by savage4731
You kind of starting to get it.

Look, if you flipped a coin 1000 times and it came up heads every single time and then on the 1001st it came up tails- would you conclude that the 1000 heads were blind luck or that the tails was an aberration?

In other words, would you think the coin was legitimate and somehow you beat the odds or would you conclud fectly but that doesnt change anything. They almost never line up in a perfectly straight line.

OMG.

The trend stops cold and then reverses. Your statement was incorrect.

There is no "aberration" in the data nor is it the result of random statistical fluctuations. The majority of people at the highest level of educational achievement in the US vote Democrat and have done so consistently for the last 5 Presidential elections.

Originally posted by savage4731
You kind of starting to get it.

Look, if you flipped a coin 1000 times and it came up heads every single time and then on the 1001st it came up tails- would you conclude that the 1000 heads were blind luck or that the tails was an aberration?

In other words, would you think the coin was legitimate and somehow you beat the odds or would you conclud fectly but that doesnt change anything. They almost never line up in a perfectly straight line.

There is no reason to assume there is a linear relation between the level of education and the proportion of voters voting GOP. You are the only one making such an assumption, and then use your baseless assertion to conclude that a very large group of relatively well-educated voters not conforming to this trend is an aberration!

Originally posted by USArmyParatrooper
He's a moron who fancies himself an intellectual.

According to his chart McCain received 46 percent of the vote for high school graduates, 47 percent for those with "some college", and 48 percent for college graduates. A single percentage point increase at each level is statistically insignificant, especially when you consider these polls typic ...[text shortened]... range. What's more, his votes dropping to 40% for post graduates IS statically significant.

35- 46% isnt significant?

Originally posted by no1marauder
OMG.

The trend stops cold and then reverses. Your statement was incorrect.

There is no "aberration" in the data nor is it the result of random statistical fluctuations. The majority of people at the highest level of educational achievement in the US vote Democrat and have done so consistently for the last 5 Presidential elections.

It doesn't reverse. There's just one data point.

Originally posted by savage4731
It doesn't reverse. There's just one data point.

The "one data point" represents 17% of the electorate, and shows a statistically significant difference between Dem and GOP voters.

Originally posted by savage4731
It doesn't reverse. There's just one data point.

A single voter would be "one data point" not an entire subcategory representing 17% of actual voters.

Originally posted by savage4731
I gave you a shot to try and some make kind of point. 5 or 6 pages later you're still rambling. I'm getting bored and tired.

As for the topic of this thread, do you agree that Obama, who had been trailing behind a hypothetical "generic Republican" in recent polls, is now moving into a solid lead according to the latest Gallup poll?

Originally posted by Kunsoo
I guess a few people out there could sort through the "pox on both houses" crap the media was selling.

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/08/cnn-poll-grand-old-party-downgrade.php?ref=fpb

I think this last debt ceiling mess hit the GOP hard. They really were seen as the party of "NO". There refusal to bend on almost anything did not make them very popular with swing voters.

Originally posted by bill718
I think this last debt ceiling mess hit the GOP hard. They really were seen as the party of "NO". There refusal to bend on almost anything did not make them very popular with swing voters.

It seems they did not learn from 1995.

Originally posted by bill718
I think this last debt ceiling mess hit the GOP hard. They really were seen as the party of "NO". There refusal to bend on almost anything did not make them very popular with swing voters.

Their Presidential candidates don't seem to be interested in following the wise maxim of "When you're in a hole, stop digging" either. ALL publicly disavowed support of any deficit reducing measure even if it was composed of ten parts spending cuts and one part tax increases. This is flying in the face of the wide public support for a plan that includes both.

Originally posted by bill718
I think this last debt ceiling mess hit the GOP hard. They really were seen as the party of "NO". There refusal to bend on almost anything did not make them very popular with swing voters.

Yeah, I'm never sure whether the public is paying attention or not. Clearly this time they have been paying attention, despite the media trying to draw equivalency between the two sides.