1. Joined
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    30 Jul '09 07:56
    Originally posted by SlyArmenian
    I'm not sure why I'm debating this.
    I'm not sure what you mean "by your own word."
    A mortgage-backed security is a derivative, so are credit-default swaps. Practically every journal and report I have read within context, attributes the collapsing of these two derivatives to the housing bubble burst, and the initial triggers to the late-2000's recessio ...[text shortened]... to know what I believe was needed in the 2000's. 😉
    Cheers!
    You're right about one thing: I don't want to know what you think was needed in the 2000's, too much overdone drama distorting the power of the Fed.

    Time-value of money already having been considered, you still haven't explained how this would force anyone to borrow "as much as you are fiscally able"... that is just stupid greed. I wouldn't leverage my personal finances for a short-term profit, nor would responsibly run companies with reasonable internal checks and balances.

    I have a feeling however that you are too wrapped up in your Federal Reserve conspiracy theory to accept realities. Interesting twist on financial reality and history though. As I've written before, the Federal Reserve conspiracy theories are fun for people who like their conspiracy theories to be more intelligent than those about big foot and alien abductions.

    To each his own, enjoy your hobby.
  2. Los Angeles
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    30 Jul '09 15:48
    Originally posted by eljefejesus
    You're right about one thing: I don't want to know what you think was needed in the 2000's, too much overdone drama distorting the power of the Fed.

    Time-value of money already having been considered, you still haven't explained how this would force anyone to borrow "as much as you are fiscally able"... that is just stupid greed. I wouldn't leverage ...[text shortened]... than those about big foot and alien abductions.

    To each his own, enjoy your hobby.
    I never said "force." I said "basically told." Which they did, by encouraging flooding the market with capital (to their own admission). This is in many, many major news articles and economic journals. I really don't need to debate this. I did mention the Fed forcing banks to accept bailout money. Maybe you're getting confused.

    "...nor would responsibly run companies with reasonable internal checks and balances."
    But this is exactly what many major banks and investment houses did, now didn't they?

    "Interesting twist on financial reality and history though."
    I haven't twisted anything. If I have, please prove it, or is this not a debate forum? I didn't get my MBA out of a dumpster, nor did I learn "how to debate" on google.
  3. Joined
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    30 Jul '09 16:132 edits
    Originally posted by SlyArmenian
    As to Greenspan and the FED, I'm saying I smell a stinky fish. Interpret as you may. Are you an officer of a bank or financial institution? Banks like it when people owe them money, lots of money is best. Banks like collecting assets and property. Banks like lots and lots of money. This is what banks do. You think they lend for the good of humanit www.nytimes.com/2008/02/12/business/worldbusiness/12iht-inflate.1.9963291.html
    I agree that banks, like any other businesses, seek to maximize their profits. So they want to lend as much money as they possibly can, while offloading as much of the risks as they can to someone else.

    Banks would be very interested with deregulating the financial sector as much as possible. They'd be very interested in instruments that allowed to them lend gobs of money to subprime borrowers while minimizing any risks they might face from default. They'd be interested in bankruptcy laws that penalized the borrower much more than the lender when a risky loan went bad. And they'd be making every effort to influence Congress and regulators to enact "bank-friendly" policies

    But Greenspan assumed that these bankers would ALSO be interested in avoiding insolvency and would make sure to avoid doing anything that would put them in such danger. This was a mistake. He admitted it. He assumed bankers would be "rational" when in fact they were, like most other human beings, short-sighted.

    It's likely that the Fed is always under a lot of pressure from the "irrationally exuberant" banks to keep the punchbowl on the table -- and this time, Greenspan may've been swayed by this. But I still see no Plot to Takeover the World here.
  4. Los Angeles
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    30 Jul '09 17:39
    For the record, I never said the Fed had a "plot to take over the world." The Fed, just like any other bank, has an innate desire to increase volume. In some sense, all banks desire to have such power and influence. It's in the nature of the game we play. However, most banks by overlending will never obtain such a feat, as history has proven. The Fed, on the other hand, doesn't seem capable to even have "losses" when it does overlend. If the Fed buys back bad deals, it just throws the debt at the feet of the American people to pay twofold. Is this fiscal responsibility?
  5. Joined
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    30 Jul '09 19:051 edit
    Originally posted by SlyArmenian
    For the record, I never said the Fed had a "plot to take over the world." The Fed, just like any other bank, has an innate desire to increase volume. In some sense, all banks desire to have such power and influence. It's in the nature of the game we play. However, most banks by overlending will never obtain such a feat, as history has proven. The Fe he debt at the feet of the American people to pay twofold. Is this fiscal responsibility?
    Now the federal & state governments, privately held banks & corporations are getting "bailed out" by the FED. I've been in this business too long not to see it as a hostile takeover orchestrated by a fraudulent corporation with power beyond that of the federal government.

    I may have interpreted this sentence more strongly than you intended it to be. I apologize.

    As for the bailouts, Congress had to pass legislation to authorize them - the Fed wasn't doing this on its own. The main reason for the bailouts was because of the mass panic that followed after Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, and no one wanted to find out what would happen if more banks were allowed to go under.

    In a perfect world, businesses should be allowed to fail -- it serves as a lesson for all the other businesses that excessive risks have consequences. But the real world has businesses that are essentially "too big to fail" or at least they're "so big we don't really want to ever know exactly what will happen if they should fail". And so we have bailouts for the big banks, as well as big automakers.

    But bailouts leave a nasty taste - what do you think would be a better way to handle businesses that are "too big to fail"?
  6. Los Angeles
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    30 Jul '09 20:43
    Originally posted by Melanerpes
    Now the federal & state governments, privately held banks & corporations are getting "bailed out" by the FED. I've been in this business too long not to see it as a hostile takeover orchestrated by a fraudulent corporation with power beyond that of the federal government.

    I may have interpreted this sentence more strongly than you intended it to ...[text shortened]... do you think would be a better way to handle businesses that are "too big to fail"?
    What I would propose would most definately send us into a huge depression. Most definately the worst depression we would ever see. Compared to a much longer recession, a short depression sounds fine to me, with the practical inability of future recessions or depressions.

    Let the economy and the fiat dollar completely crash. Get rid of our debt-based economy and the Fed, by going back on the Gold standard, issuing Gold certificates to citizens based upon the percentage of current dollars they hold. Tell the rest of the world to take a hike, and stay out of foreign affairs. Privatize most social welfare programs. Privatize schools, hospitals, etc. Get rid of income taxes, and institute a 10% flat sales tax rate paid to your local town, who in turn pays 10% to the county, which pays 10% to the state, which pays 10% to the union.

    Am I a madman? Maybe. However, think 5 years later when we would have no interest rates on money supply, creating a steady and secure economy, with sound accounting practices. It really wasn't that long ago that this nation grew so quickly and so strong because we were on the Gold standard.

    However, this is a dream. Too many powerful people stand in the way, they would rather make huge profits to the detriment of others, instead of have sound accounting practices, they would rather cheat and steal.

    Ridicule, as you may, it would be an economy which promotes future growth, not immediate gain.

    You did ask.
  7. Joined
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    03 Aug '09 00:58
    Originally posted by SlyArmenian
    I never said "force." I said "basically told." Which they did, by encouraging flooding the market with capital (to their own admission). This is in many, many major news articles and economic journals. I really don't need to debate this. I did mention the Fed forcing banks to accept bailout money. Maybe you're getting confused.

    "...nor would res ...[text shortened]... I didn't get my MBA out of a dumpster, nor did I learn "how to debate" on google.
    Ok, I'll bite the bate, where did you get your MBA from, exactly? A top 50 institution not counting online degrees?

    That may be too personal, so in sticking to this particular argument about the FED criticisms, the FED did indeed try letting some institutions fail (Lehman) and then saw too big a drop and decided to rescue many irresponsibly leveraged firms that could have totally failed without intervention.

    Though the government pressured manky companies to accept TARP to avoid stigmatizing other companies, the bonuses scandal convinced some that the government was not going to as reasonable as they should, so they paid back the TARP money.

    This is a very different picture than the one you painted that makes the FED look like some evil omnipotent beast, isn't it? Do you believe your statements did not sound too harsh and emotional against the FED?
  8. Joined
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    03 Aug '09 01:14
    Originally posted by SlyArmenian
    What I would propose would most definately send us into a huge depression. Most definately the worst depression we would ever see. Compared to a much longer recession, a short depression sounds fine to me, with the practical inability of future recessions or depressions.

    Let the economy and the fiat dollar completely crash. Get rid of our debt-base ...[text shortened]... u may, it would be an economy which promotes future growth, not immediate gain.

    You did ask.
    So why stop there and not completely revert back to the stone age?

    That'll teach them evil banks and their fiat money... LOL!

    Sorry Slick and Sly, but as you said yourself, your scenario is unrealistic.

    I don't completely disagree with some of your proposals about privatizing schools, hospitals, etc, but they are equally unrealistic to so dramatically change them.

    I have to correct your economic analysis and disappoint you that your proposals would not end the business cycle or the credit cycle. If anything, they would make the government's ability to enact countercyclical policies weaker. I'm not saying that it would have not benefits, but it would not end the business or credit cycles.

    The gold standard and tell the rest of the world to take a hike? I guess that's the type of nonsense you hear when a person who studied accounting tries their hand randomly at marco-economics. It's not only unrealistic due to political support, and due to short-term economic consequences, but rather also for its long-term economic consequences.
  9. Los Angeles
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    04 Aug '09 16:541 edit
    "So why stop there and not completely revert back to the stone age?"
    It's comments like this that tell me I'm wasting my time with you.

    "they would make the government's ability to enact countercyclical policies weaker."
    duh, that's the point. There is no need for the government to do anything, except to exercise sound accounting practices on an already stable currency, a currency that sustains itself.

    "I'm not saying that it would have not benefits, but it would not end the business or credit cycles."
    If a notepad was voided, would it's scribbles of "credit" still apply? I shouldn't have to explain this. If, fiat money (Fed) is declared illegal and fraudulent, then credit lines (essentially, scribbles on ledgers) based upon them would be illegal and fraudulent as well. Duh.

    As to TARP monies, since you already "know" everything I won't discuss what I witnessed firsthand.

    Enough with you. You mention debating in favor of government and economic freedom on your page, yet don't have the sense to see that it is fiat money and this type of economic system which enslaves the globe, to the proud admission by the very creators of the international banking system and the Fed. I'm not worried, though. Like all things, this too shall pass. That's not unrealistic, quite the contrary.
    Cheers!

    btw, I'm accredited with much more than accounting degree and a masters in finance, but there's no need to bring out the yard stick.
  10. Joined
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    04 Aug '09 21:43
    Seems like the business cycle was very much in effect back when we were on the gold standard.
  11. Joined
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    08 Aug '09 16:32
    Originally posted by SlyArmenian
    "So why stop there and not completely revert back to the stone age?"
    It's comments like this that tell me I'm wasting my time with you.

    "they would make the government's ability to enact countercyclical policies weaker."
    duh, that's the point. There is no need for the government to do anything, except to exercise sound accounting practices on an al ...[text shortened]... nd a masters in finance, but there's no need to bring out the yard stick.
    I no longer believe you have any respectable credentials, except maybe from semieducated.degrees.com

    You would end credit? This would benefit who and how? The truly ignorant overly-indebted people of the world, tie their hands down to the matt so they stop over-borrowing? What about all the economic activities it would destroy.

    It seems you are living in some fantasy world where less wealth for all is better for you.

    Weird.
  12. Joined
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    08 Aug '09 16:42
    Originally posted by Melanerpes
    Seems like the business cycle was very much in effect back when we were on the gold standard.
    I agree, here is some economic literature on it:



    http://econ161.berkeley.edu/Politics/whynotthegoldstandard.html

    "Recessionary bias. Under a gold standard, the burden of adjustment is always placed on the "weak currency" country.

    Countries seeing downward market pressure on the values of their currencies are forced to contract their economies and raise unemployment.
    The gold standard imposes no equivalent adjustment burden on countries seeing upward market pressure on currency values.
    Hence a deflationary bias which makes it likely that a gold standard regime will see a higher average unemployment rate than an alternative managed regime.
    The gold standard and the Great Depression. The current judgment of economic historians (see, for example, Barry J. Eichengreen, Golden Fetters) is that attachment to the gold standard played a major part in keeping governments from fighting the Great Depression, and was a major factor turning the recession of 1929-1931 into the Great Depression of 1931-1941.

    Countries that were not on the gold standard in 1929--or that quickly abandoned the gold standard--by and large escaped the Great Depression
    Countries that abandoned the gold standard in 1930 and 1931 suffered from the Great Depression, but escaped its worst ravages.
    Countries that held to the gold standard through 1933 (like the United States) or 1936 (like France) suffered the worst from the Great Depression"
  13. Los Angeles
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    08 Aug '09 22:38
    Originally posted by eljefejesus
    I no longer believe you have any respectable credentials, except maybe from semieducated.degrees.com

    You would end credit? This would benefit who and how? The truly ignorant overly-indebted people of the world, tie their hands down to the matt so they stop over-borrowing? What about all the economic activities it would destroy.

    It seems you are living in some fantasy world where less wealth for all is better for you.

    Weird.
    Where did I say I would end all credit? A free banking system based on gold of course is able to extend credit, based upon the banks gold reserves.
  14. Los Angeles
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    08 Aug '09 23:06
    Originally posted by eljefejesus
    I agree, here is some economic literature on it:



    http://econ161.berkeley.edu/Politics/whynotthegoldstandard.html

    "Recessionary bias. Under a gold standard, the burden of adjustment is always placed on the "weak currency" country.

    Countries seeing downward market pressure on the values of their currencies are forced to contract their economie ...[text shortened]... (like the United States) or 1936 (like France) suffered the worst from the Great Depression"
    I dug up the following article that you might be interested in:

    "...A fully free banking system and fully consistent gold standard have not as yet been achieved. But prior to World War I, the banking system in the United States (and in most of the world) was based on gold and even though governments intervened occasionally, banking was more free than controlled. Periodically, as a result of overly rapid credit expansion, banks became loaned up to the limit of their gold reserves, interest rates rose sharply, new credit was cut off, and the economy went into a sharp, but short-lived recession. (Compared with the depressions of 1920 and 1932, the pre-World War I business declines were mild indeed.) It was limited gold reserves that stopped the unbalanced expansions of business activity, before they could develop into the post-World War I type of disaster. The readjustment periods were short and the economies quickly reestablished a sound basis to resume expansion.
    But the process of cure was misdiagnosed as the disease: if shortage of bank reserves was causing a business decline — argued economic interventionists — why not find a way of supplying increased reserves to the banks so they never need be short! If banks can continue to loan money indefinitely — it was claimed — there need never be any slumps in business. And so the Federal Reserve System was organized in 1913. It consisted of twelve regional Federal Reserve banks nominally owned by private bankers, but in fact government sponsored, controlled, and supported. Credit extended by these banks is in practice (though not legally) backed by the taxing power of the federal government. Technically, we remained on the gold standard; individuals were still free to own gold, and gold continued to be used as bank reserves. But now, in addition to gold, credit extended by the Federal Reserve banks ("paper reserves"😉 could serve as legal tender to pay depositors.
    When business in the United States underwent a mild contraction in 1927, the Federal Reserve created more paper reserves in the hope of forestalling any possible bank reserve shortage. More disastrous, however, was the Federal Reserve's attempt to assist Great Britain who had been losing gold to us because the Bank of England refused to allow interest rates to rise when market forces dictated (it was politically unpalatable). The reasoning of the authorities involved was as follows: if the Federal Reserve pumped excessive paper reserves into American banks, interest rates in the United States would fall to a level comparable with those in Great Britain; this would act to stop Britain's gold loss and avoid the political embarrassment of having to raise interest rates. The Fed succeeded; it stopped the gold loss, but it nearly destroyed the economies of the world, in the process. The excess credit which the Fed pumped into the economy spilled over into the stock market, triggering a fantastic speculative boom. Belatedly, Federal Reserve officials attempted to sop up the excess reserves and finally succeeded in braking the boom. But it was too late, by 1929 the speculative imbalances had become so overwhelming that the attempt precipitated a sharp retrenching and a consequent demoralizing of business confidence. As a result, the American economy collapsed. Great Britain fared even worse, and rather than absorb the full consequences of her previous folly, she abandoned the gold standard completely in 1931, tearing asunder what remained of the fabric of confidence and inducing a world-wide series of bank failures. The world economies plunged into the Great Depression of the 1930's.
    With a logic reminiscent of the generation who insisted on the Fed, statists argued that the gold standard was largely to blame for the credit debacle which led to the Great Depression. If the gold standard had not existed, they argued, Britain's abandonment of gold payments in 1931 would not have caused the failure of banks all over the world. (The irony was that since 1913, we had been, not on a gold standard, but on "a mixed gold standard"; yet it is gold that took the blame.) But the opposition to the gold standard from a growing number of welfare-state advocates was prompted by a much subtler insight: the realization that the gold standard is incompatible with chronic deficit spending (the hallmark of the welfare state). Stripped of its academic jargon, the welfare state is nothing more than a mechanism by which governments confiscate the wealth of the productive members of a society to support a wide variety of welfare schemes. A substantial part of the confiscation is effected by taxation. But the welfare statists were quick to recognize that if they wished to retain political power, the amount of taxation had to be limited and they had to resort to programs of massive deficit spending, i.e., they had to borrow money, by issuing government bonds, to finance welfare expenditures on a large scale.
    Under a gold standard, the amount of credit that an economy can support is determined by the economy's tangible assets, since every credit instrument is ultimately a claim on some tangible asset. But government bonds are not backed by tangible wealth, only by the government's promise to pay out of future tax revenues, and cannot easily be absorbed by the financial markets. A large volume of new government bonds can be sold to the public only at progressively higher interest rates. Thus, government deficit spending under a gold standard is severely limited. The abandonment of the gold standard made it possible for the welfare statists to use the banking system as a means to an unlimited expansion of credit. They have created paper reserves in the form of government bonds which, through a complex series of steps, the banks accept in place of tangible assets and treat as if they were an actual deposit, i.e., as the equivalent of what was formerly a deposit of gold. The holder of a government bond or of a bank deposit created by paper reserves believes that he has a valid claim on a real asset. But the fact is that there are now more claims outstanding than real assets. The law of supply and demand is not to be conned. As the supply of money (of claims) increases relative to the supply of tangible assets in the economy, prices must eventually rise. Thus the earnings saved by the productive members of the society lose value in terms of goods. When the economy's books are finally balanced, one finds that this loss in value represents the goods purchased by the government for welfare or other purposes with the money proceeds of the government bonds financed by bank credit expansion.
    In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. If there were, the government would have to make its holding illegal, as was done in the case of gold. If everyone decided, for example, to convert all his bank deposits to silver or copper or any other good, and thereafter declined to accept checks as payment for goods, bank deposits would lose their purchasing power and government-created bank credit would be worthless as a claim on goods. The financial policy of the welfare state requires that there be no way for the owners of wealth to protect themselves.
    This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard."

    --By Alan Greenspan

    Published in Ayn Rand's "Objectivist" newsletter in 1966, and reprinted in her book, Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal, in 1967.
  15. Los Angeles
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    12 Aug '09 18:26
    Originally posted by SlyArmenian
    I dug up the following article that you might be interested in:

    "...A fully free banking system and fully consistent gold standard have not as yet been achieved. But prior to World War I, the banking system in the United States (and in most of the world) was based on gold and even though governments intervened occasionally, banking was more free than ...[text shortened]... er in 1966, and reprinted in her book, Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal, in 1967.
    Really?...no comment?
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