Originally posted by @philokalia
Is it going to happen?
I heard it characterized today as a brexit in name only.
You're referring to the transition period. The transition is pretty much EU membership but we can sign our own trade agreements. Brexit still happens in December 2020. Too long if you ask me.
While our own trade arrangements is the most important part of brexit I would prefer no deal to this transition. I'm fed up with many other aspects of the EU. The CFP, CAP and ECJ need to be consigned to the dustbin of history as soon as possible. Our poor fisherman who have seen the industry decimated by EU trawlers in British waters have been sold out by the government for the sake of big business.
The only bright spot is that the EU member states might not ratify the transition this Friday. That would put the government in an uncomfortable position as it would force them to face up to this sellout.
I want to leave the EU with no arrangements in March 2019. Make of bonfire of EU rules and red tape. Compete with them in every aspect of the economy. The British economy is very flexible and able to adapt.
The chancellor has his work cut out for him - fixing productivity and the dangerous levels of debt that the UK has. There have been hugely positive signs as of late - we'll post a budget surplus for the first time in nearly 20 years, productivity and manufacturing are growing at the fastest since the economy boomed in the 90's and unemployment is at 4.2%. The budget surplus will give him room to ease off austerity which will further boost growth. He needs to implement an industrial strategy to rebalance the economy away from London and bring manufacturing back to post industrial areas such as Northern Ireland and the north of England.
Inflation is rapidly falling back to the target of 2% and the record low unemployment is driving wage growth higher. For the first time in a while wages will outstrip inflation. This will ease pressure on consumers and boost the UK's spending economy.
London is still booming and extended its lead as the world's foremost financial centre this year. Despite the best efforts of France and to a lesser extent Germany to lure business away, tech startups and financial institutions still vastly prefer London to Paris or Frankfurt.
The truth is that the EU whinges about Trump and protectionism as it's some sort of champion of free trade. What a total joke. They whine about Trump putting 25% tariffs on their steel while simultaneously putting close to 80% tariffs on Chinese steel. The EU imposes 10% on some American goods while EU goods only have 2.5% added in America. That's not fair.
The EU's agricultural protectionism to protect continental European farmers is highly damaging to third world producers like here in South Africa as well as to net food importers like the UK. The CAP drastically increases food prices by close to 20% in the UK.
The only reason that the EU included the ability for us to make our own trade arrangements in the deal is because they know that if they didn't include that at the very least we would walk away, or worst of all for them, Boris, Michael Gove, Priti Patel, Olukemi Badenoch, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Penny Mordaunt, Kwasi Kwarteng, Liam Fox, David Davis or any brexiteer really in the Tory party could oust Mrs May and opt to leave with no deal.
I don't fancy funding a centralized EUSSR with the economic disaster that is the Euro that the British public want nothing to do with any longer than March 2019. I guess you can't have everything you want. There might be merit to Mrs May's approach of not being too rash and seeing how things play out. We might look back and say that she did the right thing and didn't leave with no deal prematurely.
Getting free trade with America (our closest ally, best friend and of course, the largest economy and most powerful country is a priority for the UK at the moment. Hopefully there will be some progress on that soon.