@ashiitaka saidI may have misread Pennsylvania's count. The Trump lead there is getting large but few votes from Philly have been counted and they will be counting absentee votes until Friday.
As far as I can see, Donald Trump leads in Pennsylvania by 600000 votes with nearly 60% of the vote counted.
Biden leads in Arizona with 3/4 of the vote in but I'm not sure he'll flip it. I think he'll struggle to hold onto Nevada.
Ohio, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Texas, Georgia, Wisconsin and Michigan look safe for the Donald. Joe looks like he'll hold Minnesot ...[text shortened]... If his underperformance with Latinos in Florida is anything to go by, Nevada is far from a sure win.
You are wrong to consider Michigan and Wisconsin and even Georgia "safe" for Trump - all of those have many absentee ballots and there main population centers have returned only a fraction of their votes so far.
Biden's lead in Arizona has been consistent all night and some networks have already called it for him including Fox.
Regarding Georgia:
Geoffrey Skelly: NOV. 4, 12:14 AM
"One of the big uncalled states is Georgia, where Trump leads by about 8 percentage points with 79 percent of the expected vote reporting, according to ABC News. On its face, that would seem to be pretty good for Trump. But The New York Times’ needle now gives Biden a slight edge, probably because there are many votes left to be counted in the Atlanta area. Only half of the expected vote is in from deep-blue Fulton County, and only about one-third is in from next-door DeKalb County. Fulton’s count was slowed by a burst pipe at State Farm Arena, and a couple of precincts in DeKalb had their poll-closing times extended by a judge. So it appears a fair number of Democratic-leaning votes are outstanding, but it could take a while before we know what the near-final tallies look like."
https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2020-election-results-coverage/
@ashiitaka saidWhat's not happening?
Biden at 223.
Pennsylvania (20) + Nevada (6) + Arizona (11) + Maine (3 or 4) gets him to 263-264.
It's not happening.
@cheesemaster saidAsh has already added Michigan, Wisconsin and Georgia to Trump's count, something no network has been willing to do.
What's not happening?
Here's some info on Michigan:
"Margins will probably shift toward Democrats in the days after Nov. 3 as mail votes are added to the results."
Wisconsin:
"Most municipalities count absentee and Election Day votes together, but others — including Milwaukee — count them separately and may release absentee votes all at once toward the end of the night, which could nudge races toward Democrats."
Milwaukee county, which contains the largest city in the State won't finish counting until " sometime between 4 and 7 a.m. Eastern. "
@ashiitaka saidI saw some numbers for just Pittsburgh.
As far as I can see, Donald Trump leads in Pennsylvania by 600000 votes with nearly 60% of the vote counted.
Biden leads in Arizona with 3/4 of the vote in but I'm not sure he'll flip it. I think he'll struggle to hold onto Nevada.
Ohio, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Texas, Georgia, Wisconsin and Michigan look safe for the Donald. Joe looks like he'll hold Minnesot ...[text shortened]... If his underperformance with Latinos in Florida is anything to go by, Nevada is far from a sure win.
Biden ahead by 80000 votes with 17% votes in.
Extrapolating that....
80000 ÷ .17 = 470000
Then subtract the 80000 to get 390,000.
That is the reduction in Trump's lead for just Pittsburgh.
Then there's Philadelphia. Still lots of votes to be counted there as well.
Of course, Trump is sending out his lawyers to try block further vote counting in selected states.
Pennsylvania being one of them.
@mghrn55 saidHow can lawyers stop voted that have been cast from being counted?
I saw some numbers for just Pittsburgh.
Biden ahead by 80000 votes with 17% votes in.
Extrapolating that....
80000 ÷ .17 = 470000
Then subtract the 80000 to get 390,000.
That is the reduction in Trump's lead for just Pittsburgh.
Then there's Philadelphia. Still lots of votes to be counted there as well.
Of course, Trump is sending out his lawyers to try block further vote counting in selected states.
Pennsylvania being one of them.
Surely that is interfering with the democratic system and should have the laywers sent down for 20 years hard labour.
@mghrn55 saidWisconsin tells a similar story:
I saw some numbers for just Pittsburgh.
Biden ahead by 80000 votes with 17% votes in.
Extrapolating that....
80000 ÷ .17 = 470000
Then subtract the 80000 to get 390,000.
That is the reduction in Trump's lead for just Pittsburgh.
Then there's Philadelphia. Still lots of votes to be counted there as well.
Of course, Trump is sending out his lawyers to try block further vote counting in selected states.
Pennsylvania being one of them.
"NOV. 4, 1:03 AM
With 72 percent of the expected vote in from Wisconsin, Trump leads by a little more than 4 points and around 114,000 votes. But in terms of what’s left, it might be enough to put Biden over the top. The big story is Milwaukee County, where only 36 percent of the expected vote is in. That along with 10 percent of the expected vote left out in deep-blue Dane County (Madison) leaves things very much up in the air."
https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2020-election-results-coverage/
In 2016, Milwaukee County cast 441,000 votes and HRC won it by 37 points. If there are close to 300,000 more votes to be cast there, that seems enough to erase the Donald's lead on its own and 10% of Dane County is another 30,000 votes at least in a county that went for Hillary by 3:1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election_in_Wisconsin
@no1marauder saidIndeed, Biden's now moved into the lead in Wisconsin.
Wisconsin tells a similar story: