Trump Beating Biden in Swing States, 6.5 - 0.5

New Poll: Trump Now Leading Biden in Swing States — With or Without RFK Jr

Anew poll from the Wall Street Journal has found that former president and presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump boasts leads over President Joe Biden in 6 of 7 key swing states both in head-to-head matchups, and when respondents are given the option of voting for Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is mounting an independent bid for the White House.
According to the Journal survey, Trump leads one-on-one in Arizona (47%-42😵, Georgia (44%-43😵, Michigan (48%-45😵, North Carolina (49%-43😵, Nevada (48%-44😵, and Pennsylvania (47%-44😵. He and Biden draw even, at 46%, in Wisconsin.

When RFK Jr. and other third-party candidates are included on the ballot, Trump still leads in Arizona (39%-34😵, Georgia (38%-35😵, Michigan (39%-37😵, North Carolina (42%-34😵, Nevada (37%-33😵, and Pennsylvania (41%-38😵. He does, however, fall behind Biden in Wisconsin by a margin of 3 points (41%-38😵.
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Sonhouse, don't bytch to me about the source, it's wall street journal.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/new-poll-trump-now-leading-biden-in-swing-states-with-or-without-rfk-jr/ar-BB1l00RS

@Earl-of-Trumps

Unless they come up with a way to have only American citizens vote and only vote once, you can bet your life savings the Democrats are going to do whatever it takes to avoid Trump getting into the white house.

The only way the Republicans can win is with another candidate.

@Fartacus

No question, the dems will try to cheat. And little-d dems don't wish to stop it.

power play. that's all

@earl-of-trumps said
@Fartacus

No question, the dems will try to cheat. And little-d dems don't wish to stop it.

power play. that's all

Well - here's the problem. Surveys are only of willing respondents.

I'm voting for Biden. And I'm not willing to answer those surveys! I've ignored 4 or 5 so far. I'm not interested - maybe I'm never going to be interested. Apparently Trump voters are more interested - fine.

That's the missing data problem they have.

And no, Biden doesn't have to cheat. He's already beat Trump once. This time, the margin will be even bigger. Cheating would be a waste of time and energy.

But I know Roger Stone is FEVERISH with plans of how to cheat, though. Let's see what he comes up with...

You guys also need to stop giving RFKJr any cred on the Dem side. NO dem I know is gonna vote for that lunatic.

Since Repubs are lunatics already, some of them might vote for RFKJr, but only if Trump isn't lunatic enough for them, but I doubt that, too.

@earl-of-trumps said
New Poll: Trump Now Leading Biden in Swing States — With or Without RFK Jr

Anew poll from the Wall Street Journal has found that former president and presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump boasts leads over President Joe Biden in 6 of 7 key swing states both in head-to-head matchups, and when respondents are given the option of voting ...[text shortened]... us/news/politics/new-poll-trump-now-leading-biden-in-swing-states-with-or-without-rfk-jr/ar-BB1l00RS

Polls at this point in time are valueless. Check them after Labor Day for a clearer picture of this race.

- or when Trump's N.Y. hush money trial is over. 😏

@spruce112358 said
Well - here's the problem. Surveys are only of willing respondents.

I'm voting for Biden. And I'm not willing to answer those surveys! I've ignored 4 or 5 so far. I'm not interested - maybe I'm never going to be interested. Apparently Trump voters are more interested - fine.

That's the missing data problem they have.

And no, Biden doesn't have to cheat. He's alr ...[text shortened]... know Roger Stone is FEVERISH with plans of how to cheat, though. Let's see what he comes up with...

That’s so EOT and the other totalitarians in the MAGA gang can scream and pull the last of their hair out when the election results don’t match the misleading polls. And obviously it’s a perfect justification for a ‘bloodbath’

@kevcvs57 said
That’s so EOT and the other totalitarians in the MAGA gang can scream and pull the last of their hair out when the election results don’t match the misleading polls. And obviously it’s a perfect justification for a ‘bloodbath’

That is exactly what they are doing.

@Earl-of-Trumps
Long time till November and in less than two weeks the first FELONY trial for your fascist orange anti Christ. BTW, as much as you will mewl and bitch about it, hush money payments to a porn star for the express purpose of keeping her quiet so folks won't be able to use that in a voting decision, THAT is a crime. Not the fact he paid Stormy to whack his ass the week his son was born.

@spruce112358 said
Well - here's the problem. Surveys are only of willing respondents.

I'm voting for Biden. And I'm not willing to answer those surveys! I've ignored 4 or 5 so far. I'm not interested - maybe I'm never going to be interested. Apparently Trump voters are more interested - fine.

That's the missing data problem they have.

And no, Biden doesn't have to cheat. He's alr ...[text shortened]... know Roger Stone is FEVERISH with plans of how to cheat, though. Let's see what he comes up with...

Dismissing all polling data with one flippant wave based on your own theory is borderline childish. The people that run these polls have access to the same guesses about human nature you have and they do everything that they can to correct for them. Granted, some pollsters are biased and others are incompetent. But on the whole, polls tend to be pretty good predictors.

A LOT can change between now and November, of course. But dismissing polls that show Trump with a (modest) advantage because you came up with a one sentence argument that polling in general is a useless pursuit is akin to putting your head in the sand.

@sh76 said
Dismissing all polling data with one flippant wave based on your own theory is borderline childish. The people that run these polls have access to the same guesses about human nature you have and they do everything that they can to correct for them. Granted, some pollsters are biased and others are incompetent. But on the whole, polls tend to be pretty good predictors.

A LOT ...[text shortened]... ence argument that polling in general is a useless pursuit is akin to putting your head in the sand.

I'm not trying to be flippant. I'm just saying the missing data is intractable - even for the best statisticians.

You have to get an estimate of how the people who you FIRST chose randomly to call but refused to answer would have responded. There are ways, but they are complicated and expensive and most pollsters don't bother - they just call someone else.

News services will buy any new poll, regardless of the quality, so there is nothing in it for pollsters to make it more accurate.

@spruce112358 said
I'm not trying to be flippant. I'm just saying the missing data is intractable - even for the best statisticians.

You have to get an estimate of how the people who you FIRST chose randomly to call but refused to answer would have responded. There are ways, but they are complicated and expensive and most pollsters don't bother - they just call someone else.

News ser ...[text shortened]... w poll, regardless of the quality, so there is nothing in it for pollsters to make it more accurate.

And you think that polling agencies such as Sienna, the WSJ and CBS don't know these things? You think they don't care about accuracy? They just want to sell their polls?

@sh76 said
And you think that polling agencies such as Sienna, the WSJ and CBS don't know these things? You think they don't care about accuracy? They just want to sell their polls?

To get an accurate answer, they'd have to call back the non-responders.

Nobody ever called me back, so... No (yes, they know), Meh, Affirmative - because people still buy them.

I will return later today to address your worthy posts. for now:

Donald Trump Holds Eight-Point Lead over Joe Biden

Former President Donald Trump now has an eight-point lead over His Fraudulency Joe Biden, per the latest poll from Rasmussen.

Currently, Trump sits at 49 percent, while Hunter’s Dad earns just 41 percent support.
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https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/04/04/nolte-donald-trump-holds-eight-point-lead-joe-biden/


Rasmussen. 8 points.,. Something tells me this is not right/

@earl-of-trumps said
Rasmussen. 8 points.,. Something tells me this is not right/

"The poll aggregation and evaluation site 538, part of ABC News, dropped the right-wing polling firm Rasmussen Reports from inclusion in its polling averages and forecasts."

"The decision comes after months of consideration that broke into public view in June. At that point, G. Elliott Morris, ABC News’s editorial director of data analytics and 538 lead, presented Rasmussen with questions meant to evaluate its objectivity and methodology. Rasmussen published the letter on its website, triggering backlash against 538 in right-wing media — and by Nate Silver, the founder of what was then called FiveThirtyEight. No change was implemented."

"As time passed, though, Rasmussen’s inability to meet the standards set by 538 — and two dubious polls conducted for right-wing organizations — eventually led 538 to make the change this week."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/03/08/rasmussen-538-polling/