WHO publishes inferred COVID infection fatality rate

@athousandyoung said
Europeans do indeed use decimal points instead of commas for big numbers. It's weird. How do they know where the actual decimal point is? How do they write $100,000.15? I DON'T KNOW

100.000,15

But that could just be the Dutch.

@divegeester said
In the UK we are about to continue to dismantle the economy, further increase mental health issues, further increase domestic violence and drive the nation into a generational recession where unemployment and cuts in social spending will harm millions and spread misery for decades.

Q. Why?

A. Because covid infections are much higher than wave one back in March

Er ...[text shortened]... t’s below the average age of death in the uk overall.

Here’s a gun - shoot yourself in the face.

How many tests were you doing in early September? The number of daily cases is 10 times what it was then: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

And even with the statistical funny business of excluding any deaths from COVID that occur more than 28 days after a positive test (the significant majority), you're still getting an average of about 140 deaths over the last three days?

You might have a deadly epidemic there, DG; probably be best to do something about it.

@no1marauder said
You might have a deadly epidemic there, DG; probably be best to do something about it.

Can you please define “deadly”, and I mean specifically in a comparative context to all morbidities, pathogens and disease, which supports your rebuttal of my post.

@no1marauder said

You might have a deadly epidemic there, DG; probably be best to do something about it.

What is it that makes you presume that I don’t think we are or should be “doing anything about it”?

The post that was quoted here has been removed

Their initial lockdown was so effective that they're getting their real first wave now (though thankfully, it seems to be waning). They had few deaths in the Spring because they had few cases.

The death rate per case is extremely low now (well under 1% case fatality rate). but alas, they have had a lot of cases.

@no1marauder said
(Shrug) Every other week when you start a thread saying COVID is no big deal, I glance at the WM numbers for that day and they always seem to be around 1000, But you're right, "only" 20-25,000 Americans will die this month and for the foreseeable future from this minor annoyance.

You should consider that the type of posts you are making contribute to that death toll if anyone pays any actual attention to them.

That's not my intent. I think people should be careful, as I keep saying in all of these threads.

But I see lockdowns and the damage they do to the education and economic well-being of hundreds of millions or billions as the greater evil.

Edit: I also think it's good for people's mental health to not walk around all day terrified. I was freaking terrified of this thing in March. I lost 5 pounds in 3 weeks because I couldn't eat normally. I literally socially distanced from my own wife and kids - I didn't hold my baby for weeks.

Then I started to read the studies as they came out and realized that this thing was far less dangerous than CNN and the NYT had convinced me that it was; and gradually, my life went back to normal. I'd like to pass on that gift to anyone else who might still be terrified.

To be completely clear, I'm very much in FAVOR of trying to slow the spread of COVID and reduce mortality by:

1. masking up (when indoors or not able to distance)
2. avoiding large gatherings such as sporting events (though I think drastically limiting capacity like they're doing in Philly and KC is fine)
3. employing distancing and limiting crowds at risky indoor environments such as bars and restaurants
4. Being extremely careful with long term care facilities and with elderly people
etc.

What I'm dead set AGAINST is:

1. Shutting down businesses and forcing them into insolvency
2. Discouraging exercise, especially outdoors, which is good for both physical and metal health and for reducing COVID comorbidities
3. (especially) closing schools

@divegeester said
In the UK we are about to continue to dismantle the economy, further increase mental health issues, further increase domestic violence and drive the nation into a generational recession where unemployment and cuts in social spending will harm millions and spread misery for decades.

Q. Why?

A. Because covid infections are much higher than wave one back in March

Er ...[text shortened]... t’s below the average age of death in the uk overall.

Here’s a gun - shoot yourself in the face.

Yup. While in March one could still have argued about it, at this point, the cure is worse than the disease.

@sh76 said
Yup. While in March one could still have argued about it, at this point, the cure is worse than the disease.

I agree because if this keeps going, and luckily we cure the COVID problem and "open up",
we're going to find that many many business will no longer be able to open and
the workers there are in trouble in more ways than one.

Take anyone in the food and beverage industry. They now have to take up a whole
new career because it's not just their former place of employ that is closed, it's
many of them, and jobs are quite scarce in the field.

Just read an article about American bowling alleys that are in the same dire shape.
There are other type s of businesses, too, like museums, golf course, and others.

Then we come to individuals who were laid off. I am sure many have lost their
homes already and of course, the figure will rise. Families without food.

Very sad.

@sh76 said
That's not my intent. I think people should be careful, as I keep saying in all of these threads.

But I see lockdowns and the damage they do to the education and economic well-being of hundreds of millions or billions as the greater evil.

Edit: I also think it's good for people's mental health to not walk around all day terrified. I was freaking terrified of this thing in ...[text shortened]... life went back to normal. I'd like to pass on that gift to anyone else who might still be terrified.

So your a utilitarian?
Is there a greater evil than dying?
More to the point the UK has put the nightingale hospitals on standby, because health chiefs are telling them to. Its not necessarily those dying of covid that are going to overwhelm the health services but those who need icu treatment and ongoing out patient treatment, potentially for years to come.
We do not know nearly enough about covid to risk letting it run rampant through the population for the sake of the economy.
For sure governments are getting stuff wrong, they always do.

@sh76 said
Yup. While in March one could still have argued about it, at this point, the cure is worse than the disease.

That’s because the cure works and we’ve no real idea how bad the disease would or could have been.

@sh76 said
To be completely clear, I'm very much in FAVOR of trying to slow the spread of COVID and reduce mortality by:

1. masking up (when indoors or not able to distance)
2. avoiding large gatherings such as sporting events (though I think drastically limiting capacity like they're doing in Philly and KC is fine)
3. employing distancing and limiting crowds at risky indoor environme ...[text shortened]... both physical and metal health and for reducing COVID comorbidities
3. (especially) closing schools

Nobody is discouraging exercise indoors or outdoors. They are discouraging heavy breathing indoors whilst in large groups for pretty obvious reasons.
I think if masks were made absolutely mandatory in every public space and private workplace except for those with official exemptions for severe conditions then we could open up our economies to a much greater degree.

@sh76 said
https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdf

This was originally submitted in May, before we were using convalescent plasma, Dexamethasone, mab treatments and Remdesivir (in fact, it was right in the heart of the hydroxychloroquine era).

Long story short, the paper infers a median COVID infection fatality rate of 0.23% (or about 1/15 of the scary 3.6% number ...[text shortened]... re under 70 and relatively healthy, it's exceedingly unlikely that this poses a danger to your life.

If you're under 70 and relatively healthy, it's exceedingly unlikely that this poses a danger to your life.


You and no1marauder both seem to make valid points, personally I think the truth is somewhere between the two. Unlikely that this poses a danger? perhaps, but I'd prefer to err on the side of caution.

@kevcvs57 - Nobody is discouraging exercise indoors or outdoors.

Maybe where you are. Where I am and in many states in America, gyms are closed
down and may be going extinct, like many other public gathering businesses.

@mchill said
If you're under 70 and relatively healthy, it's exceedingly unlikely that this poses a danger to your life.


You and no1marauder both seem to make valid points, personally I think the truth is somewhere between the two. Unlikely that this poses a danger? perhaps, but I'd prefer to err on the side of caution.

"... err on the side of caution".

The problem is, there are two problems and two cautions that need evaluating.

Ruining the economy will eventually kill more people - or at least permanently immiserate their lives than COVID.