Originally posted by HandyAndyThat's the basic idea. The next level of analysis is, which number in the gap do you pick? Whatever you think is best, others will thing best too. So there are elements of game theory involved for one's inner geek. And the reward being trivial makes this truly geeky.
Gap strategy works best just before the entry deadline.
Originally posted by JS357If the free-sub winning number is truly random, identify the largest gap and select the number
That's the basic idea. The next level of analysis is, which number in the gap do you pick? Whatever you think is best, others will thing best too. So there are elements of game theory involved for one's inner geek. And the reward being trivial makes this truly geeky.
in the middle. This gives you the maximum range of possible winners.
If the free-sub number is not random, which is likely, intuition and chance enter the equation.
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Originally posted by HandyAndyAndy, doubt ranges will help. May, in fact, mislesd. Appreciate your conversational participation. Will you also be participating in our contest? Bobby
If the free-sub winning number is truly random, identify the largest gap and select the number
in the middle. This gives you the maximum range of possible winners.
If the free-sub number is not random, which is likely, intuition and chance enter the equation.
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Quick question GB.
1) Is the number selected a completely random number - or 2) does it have some significance to you or someone/something else?
I have been reading about Gregory Treverton ideas about puzzles and mysteries, and last night was wondering if this was a puzzle of sorts, 3) if it was possible to figure out what number you selected.
e.g. the Mayan date 13.0.0.0.0 is 21 December 2012 - so 1300 would be a good guess. Or 4) maybe some combination of your birthday or anniversary or postal code if someone possibly knew that etc.
5) Did you select a completely random number or a number with a narrative?
Thanks
John (Mercurial)
Note: Copy & Paste Surgery needed to restore your full text, otherwise truncated/shortened by the forum software.
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Terrific questions.
1) NO.
2) Yes.
3) Random number generator trial and error within the parameter range; rational process of deductive/inductive reasoning; synthesis and/or elimination of variables, no. Intuitively, maybe.
4) No comment (though these considerations you suggest may or may not apply directly to me. Please understand that I do not wish to overcomplicate or mislead).
5) Please see 1) -4) above.;
NOTE: HAVING PROVIDED THESE ANSWERS PUBLICALLY TO YOU, MECURIAL, I'M COMPELLED TO ALLOW THOSE MEMBERS MEMBERS WHO MADE PICKS 1 -13 TO CHANGE THEM IF THEY SO WISH. iN THE INTEREST OF KEEPING THINGS CURRENT, ANY AND ALL CHANGES MUST BE MADE BY ON OR BEFORE MIDNIGHT (GMT-5) OCTOBER 31, 2012.
Glad you've decided to participate. Please inform your friends of the contest and prizes. Thanks.
Originally posted by Grampy BobbyThe theory calls for delaying one's pick as long as possible.
Your call, HandyAndy.
Your pick ___ ?
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Of course the theory also calls for not disclosing the theory, one would think.
But perhaps some aspects of the theory are not being disclosed...
Which might mean that disclosing SOME aspects of the theory is part of the theory. 😉
Second Free Member Subscription Contest, 2012 (Entrants as of Saturday, October 27, 2012)
01) Drewnogal: 0005
02) CLL53: 123
03) Maxwell Smart: 1012
04) Vivify: 337
05) Ponderable: 233
06) Lolof: 0044
07) Mikelom: 1937
08) Roma 45: 1964
09) Lloyd E. Adkins: 179
10) Karoly Aczel: 589
11) Talisman: 1471
12) ChessPraxis; 117
13) Divegeester: 1969
14) Boonon: 1234
15) Mrhuma: 1997
16) RevRSleeker: 0046
17) Robbie Carrobie: 1999
18) Vartiovori: 1261
19) Marinkatomb: 1407
20) Greenpawn34: 1966
21) Great Big Stees: 0001 (Low)
22) Ale1552; 119
23) Uzless: 2045 (High)
24) Tomtom232: 567
25) Kevcs57: 666
26) zakkwylder: 2012
27) Silverstriker: 1007
28) Mike1947mini: 1947
29) Scotty70: 1970
30) Ketchuplover: 1386
31) Baron Von Chickenpants: 585
Low: Great Big Stees: 001
High: Uzless: 2045
Average = 1071 (33,215 / 31)
Trend: Still Upward!
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Note: In the unlikely event that the member with the winning number so chooses, he or she may opt
to redeem the winnings for RHP Logized Merchandise at Russ & Chris' convenient on-line store.
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Originally posted by karoly aczel08 Oct '12 12:53
so when is the winner announced?
SECOND FREE MEMBER SUBSCRIPTION CONTEST, 2012
* There will be a second contest (following Moose's successful event) to coincide with Christmas, 2012, sponsored by Santa Claus himself.
* The jolly guy in red has chosen three Red Hot Pawn Members as his worker elves (Sumydid, Great Big Stees and Grampy Bobby).
* Format changes include elimination of member status as a participation criteria. Both subscribers and non-subscribers may enter the contest
(Including provisional status, brand new members). We’ll have nearly twelve weeks to for members to post picks (October 8 to Friday, December 21, 2012).
Prize Winners will be announced Sunday morning, December 23, 2012.
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15 Oct '12 16:34 :: 1 edit
Quick question GB.
1) Is the number selected a completely random number - or 2) does it have some significance to you or someone/something else?
I have been reading about Gregory Treverton ideas about puzzles and mysteries, and last night was wondering if this was a puzzle of sorts, 3) if it was possible to figure out what number you selected.
e.g. the Mayan date 13.0.0.0.0 is 21 December 2012 - so 1300 would be a good guess. Or 4) maybe some combination of your birthday or anniversary or postal code if someone possibly knew that etc.
5) Did you select a completely random number or a number with a narrative?
Thanks
John (Mercuria)
Note: Copy & Paste Surgery needed to restore your full text, otherwise truncated/shortened by the forum software. -gb
..........................................
Terrific question.
1) No.
2) Yes.
3) Random number generator trial and error within the parameter range; rational process of deductive/inductive reasoning; synthesis and/or elimination of variables, no. Intuitively, maybe.
4) No comment (though these considerations you suggest may or may not apply directly to me. Please understand that I do not wish to overcomplicate or mislead).
5) Please see 1) -4) above.
NOTE: HAVING PROVIDED THESE ANSWERS PUBLICALLY TO YOU, MECURIAL, I'M COMPELLED TO ALLOW THOSE MEMBERS MEMBERS WHO MADE PICKS 1 -18 (updated) TO CHANGE THEM IF THEY SO WISH. iN THE INTEREST OF KEEPING THINGS CURRENT, ANY AND ALL CHANGES MUST BE MADE BY ON OR BEFORE MIDNIGHT (GMT-5) OCTOBER 31, 2012.
Glad you've decided to participate. Please inform your friends of the contest and prizes. Thanks. -gb
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