Blitz performance compared to ELO rating in Tal memorial

Originally posted by Cimon
Do you want to state that Ivanchuk, Jakovenko and Gelfand is in one level with Karpov today? Are they worse than Dominguez (winner of previous World Blitz championship) and Bareev? "Very strong" correlation indeed.

And the same question (which Tryfon Gavriel did not respond) also for you: Have you heard about Valentin Arbakov and Genrikh Chepukaitis ? Arba of them have beaten top GM's (including good blitzers like Tal) in blitz on a regular basis.

Checking on Chessgames.com:

http://www.chessgames.com/player/valentin_arbakov.html

"Valentin Mikhailovich Arbakov born 1952 was joint Moscow Champion in 1981. He became a Grandmaster in 1994."

Joint Moscow Champion in 1981 doesn't to me sound like "Average", considering especially the Russians in general dominated chess.

I think there are a large number of obscuring issues here, the main one being what exactly is being claimed.

I simply claim I think that Grandmasters in general have very fast intuition, generally very good opening and endgame knowledge as well. So the 5 minute game - or especially a 3 minute game with 2 second increment, is likely statistically to favour the more experienced player, and one with better calculation skills.

Whether those calculation skills "scale" up to longer time controls is a matter of considerable debate.

I noticed first hand in my youth that GM Michael Adams wiped the floor with other juniors (some of which also came GM's later), in 5-minute chess.

It seems also Kasparov is very good at Blitz chess, and was a champion among his Grandmaster peers. And I think there are a lot of other example players who as well as being top in classical time controls, were also mightily strong at speed chess - including blitz and 30 minute.

There are some blitz players who "specialise" by creating very simple opening repertoires and themes - one of which I remember is a player called "Salem" - but he had very quick calculating ability. He was annoying some English GM's regularly at the Barbican 30 minute tournaments by sometimes beating them. I remember GM Julian Hodgson playing with great determination to try and overcome him. One of Salem's friends is also a blitz specialist for 5 minute chess, and didn't do so well in the Gibraltar Long play tournament earlier in the year. So perhaps there are arguments that some blitz players limit their opening repertoires deliberately, or simply can't be bothered for longer time controls. Even with these cases, I do wonder with some training, determination, and more patience, if they could raise their long game rating a bit higher though.

BTW this game against Karpov looks a little bit of a "Lazy" plan, and casually giving away the queenside a6 pawn. But the theme would be a lot more dangerous in blitz chess I guess, for the K-side attack, especially without an increment time control:



For those interested in the quality shown by Carlsen's blitz, btw, you can check these videos on Youtube:

With White, part 1
YouTube

With White part 2
YouTube

With Black part 1
YouTube

With Black part 2
YouTube

With Black part 3
YouTube

Personally I think there were some very high quality positional ideas and tactics in these games, some of which would be useful not just for improving one's own blitz chess, but also for potential usage in longer OTB time controls.

Originally posted by Tryfon Gavriel
Checking on Chessgames.com:

http://www.chessgames.com/player/valentin_arbakov.html

"Valentin Mikhailovich Arbakov born 1952 was joint Moscow Champion in 1981. He became a Grandmaster in 1994."

Joint Moscow Champion in 1981 doesn't to me sound like "Average", considering especially the Russians in general dominated chess.

I think there are lso for potential usage in longer OTB time controls.

Moscow championships in 80ties usually were competitions amongst strong local masters + some GM's. So I find nothing extraordinary for GM to take 1st place there. Don't forget that he became GM only in 1994.

Andrei Sokolov who shared 1st place with Arbakov in that championship (he was only 17 years old and wasn't even IM) later became super GM (played in Candidates final in 1987) and he is known as weak blitz player.

Mikhail Tal won World Blitz Championship in 1988, when his results on standart time control were average. According to Kasparov ("My Great Predecessors" vol.2 ) Tal won him in blitz a few months before his death in 1992.

From my personal experience - many times I have seen untitled players and FM's beating GM's in blitz and taking higher places in blitz tournaments. In blitz it happened much more often than in standart time control.

My point is - "good in standart time control" and "good in blitz" is not the same and vipiu is wrong.

it just came to me that a very similar discussion was the reason why old, timed IQ tests got replaced by tests with unlimited time. - it was discovered that there indeed were very different kinds of deep intelligence, and that the timed tests discarded anyone who wasn't good at fast thinking. undeniably very intelligent researchers were left out, ie. people who took long time to think but produced extremely high quality results. so, they (once again) changed the definitions and made a new batch of tests.

I'm not sure how much that applies to chess, as chess is so mechanical in a general sense (compared to philosophy, literature etc.), but it's something to think about.

Originally posted by Cimon
Do you want to state that Ivanchuk, Jakovenko and Gelfand is in one level with Karpov today? Are they worse than Dominguez (winner of previous World Blitz championship) and Bareev? "Very strong" correlation indeed.

And the same question (which Tryfon Gavriel did not respond) also for you: Have you heard about Valentin Arbakov and Genrikh Chepukaitis ? Arba ...[text shortened]... of them have beaten top GM's (including good blitzers like Tal) in blitz on a regular basis.

do you understand the principle of performance?
Karpov is just +71,
Ivanchuk -46
Gelfand -82
Jakovenko -76

In Tal memorial, just finished before:
Kramnik +111
Ivanchuk +106
Morozevich -104

This ups and downs are happening in ANY tournament...if I would have given you the results form main Tal memorial but telling you it was in fact blitz, you would have said: impossible, Morozevich would not finish so low in standard games...

make it like this for the blitz:
take top 7(you will find top 3 rated players there)
take bottom 7(you will find lowest 3 rated players there)
take middle 7(you will find the the average players there)

I claim that the standing from the blitz tournament can be anytime the standing from a long tournament played against same players and none would be surprised...
Is it such a huge surprize taht Karpov performed 71 points better than expected?
We all not Ivanchuk, he is sometimes very weak, sometimes very strong, and he performed worse than -46 in many tournaments, it is not such a major proof his -46 performance..

Originally posted by vipiu
do you understand the principle of performance?
Karpov is just +71,
Ivanchuk -46
Gelfand -82
Jakovenko -76

In Tal memorial, just finished before:
Kramnik +111
Ivanchuk +106
Morozevich -104

This ups and downs are happening in ANY tournament...if I would have given you the results form main Tal memorial but telling you it was in fact blitz, you wou ...[text shortened]... performed worse than -46 in many tournaments, it is not such a major proof his -46 performance..

Compare last results (in standart time control) by Karpov and Ivanchuk, Gelfand & Jakovenko to see how absurd your "the standing from the blitz tournament can be anytime the standing from a long tournament played against same players and none would be surprised" claim is.

3/7 is less than 50% - isn't it?

Also you ignored well known examples of players strong in standart time control , but weak in blitz (Sokolov) and good blitz players weaker in standart time control (Arbakov & Chepukaitis).

Here is one of Karpov's last tournaments.

http://www.chessgames.com/perl/chess.pl?tid=68460

Can someone imagine Ivanchuk, Gelfand or Jakovenko to show such a "high" performance?

Originally posted by Cimon
Compare last results (in standart time control) by Karpov and Ivanchuk, Gelfand & Jakovenko to see how absurd your "the standing from the blitz tournament can be anytime the standing from a long tournament played against same players and none would be surprised" claim is.

3/7 is less than 50% - isn't it?

Also you ignored well known examples of players s ...[text shortened]... itz (Sokolov) and good blitz players weaker in standart time control (Arbakov & Chepukaitis).

you really do not read the performance numbers and only look at some arguments that you want to see only 🙂..
do you hate karpov, why can't you believe he can performe decent from time to time ?
in Corus 2009 Ivanchuck was last, but this does not mean he cannot score sometimes very well and sometimes very good, in the end his average performance goes to his actual rating...
don't come with examples like: in this tournament Karpov had a bad performance=> he is weak...this is a childish argument for a chess player...we use statistics, ratings, performances...
Where I live we also organize long and also blitz tournaments, and we have a blitz specialits: who is usually in 5-8 place (out of 40+) but when it comes to blitz it finishes in 1-3...and he is considered a blitz specialist...there are player that are better in a specific format, but the difference is not very big, you never see a buttom player (one from places 35-40) coming on top, it simply does not happen, the top is the top and the buttom is the buttom(like in Tal World blitz tournament)

Originally posted by Cimon
Compare last results (in standart time control) by Karpov and Ivanchuk, Gelfand & Jakovenko to see how absurd your "the standing from the blitz tournament can be anytime the standing from a long tournament played against same players and none would be surprised" claim is.

3/7 is less than 50% - isn't it?

Also you ignored well known examples of players s ...[text shortened]... itz (Sokolov) and good blitz players weaker in standart time control (Arbakov & Chepukaitis).

"3/7 is less than 50% - isn't it? "
why is this related to what I was saying ? actually for the top you can say 3/4...this is more than 50%, isn't it ? still, why is this related to our subject ?

If you need to look in history to find some examples of players good in long games but weak in blitz or viceversa it means that the majority is like I am saying, that's why you really need to find some couterexamples, hehe...

Originally posted by vipiu
you really do not read the performance numbers and only look at some arguments that you want to see only 🙂..
do you hate karpov, why can't you believe he can performe decent from time to time ?
in Corus 2009 Ivanchuck was last, but this does not mean he cannot score sometimes very well and sometimes very good, in the end his average performance goes to his ot happen, the top is the top and the buttom is the buttom(like in Tal World blitz tournament)

I repeat - compare Karpov's performance in standart time control in that tournament (1.5/9) with Ivanchuk's performance in Corus 2009 (5.5/13) and take into account that Ivanchuk had stronger opposition. I don't hate Karpov, but unfortunately his last results in standart time control are very bad for top GM. It's not only example of such a disastrous performance by Karpov (in 2007 he had similar "success"😉. According to FIDE web page Karpov has lost ELO points in all his standart time control tournaments during 2007-2009.

Tal in 1988 was far from being on top. Your ignorance is fascinating.

Originally posted by vipiu
"3/7 is less than 50% - isn't it? "
why is this related to what I was saying ? actually for the top you can say 3/4...this is more than 50%, isn't it ? still, why is this related to our subject ?

If you need to look in history to find some examples of players good in long games but weak in blitz or viceversa it means that the majority is like I am saying, that's why you really need to find some couterexamples, hehe...

3/7 only shows lack of logic in your "take top 7(you will find top 3 rated players there)" arguments. I we don't need to look in history - it's enough to look at chess playing servers to see many FM's and untitled players (to say nothing about IM's) having equal or better rating than many GM's. This is enough to refute your absurd claim.

Originally posted by Cimon
3/7 only shows lack of logic in your "take top 7(you will find top 3 rated players there)" arguments. I we don't need to look in history - it's enough to look at chess playing servers to see many FM's and untitled players (to say nothing about IM's) having equal or better rating than many GM's. This is enough to refute your absurd claim.

Hi there

If you do a "rank 5-minute smallville"

this is a useful way to see the top of any specific rating list on the ICC, as smallville is Nakumara

You will find:

Rank Rat. 5-minute
1 2800 Vidocq (GM)
2 2737 Pinkalmykia (GM)
3 2688 GUNSNROSES (No title shown)
4 2675 Sage (No title shown)
5 2663 Smallville<------ (GM Nakumara)
6 2639 KinkyLoek (GM Van Wely)
7 2624 Impitoyable (IM since 1996)
8 2618 denmanisgod (GM)
9 2607 KRASAVCHIK (GM)
10 2604 Hatred (IM)
11 2600 Alligator (IM)
12 2577 N-Chadaev (IM Nikolay Chadaev)
13 2575 VerdeNotte (GM Gawain Jones)
14 2573 DrainYou (GM Sune Berg Hansen)
15 2573 Yuka (IM Daniel Hausrath (ELO 2479)
4116 total

Now a lot of the current top 10 are Grandmasters. The ones that are untitled might be anonymous GM's because they don't want people looking at their openings, etc.

From a statistical perspective though, I have a few new points to make here:

- For FIDE player populations per country: There are statistically a lot more FM's in any country than IM's as a generalisation (it is easier to become an FM than to reach IM)
- For FIDE player populations per country: There are a lot more IM's than GM's in any country as a generalisation (it is easier to reach IM than GM)

And given this, then there are likely to be young strong FM's with very high blitz ratings, or younger IM's than GM's. Age does play a factor. Recently I played someone who was over 2500 on the autopairing, and it turned out they were an FM. But a very young FM on the rise in longer OTB chess.

But let's take for example British GM's Howell and GM Garwain Jones. These are young GM's that are also excellent blitz players. I don't see to be honest many equivalently young FM's or IM's doing that well in say either a 10 game 5-minute match or a 10 game 30 minute match, let alone normal classical FIDE time controls. My intuition tells me that statistically the young ambitious GM's like these guys can generally wipe the floor with equivalently young FM's and IM's. Howell also proved his blitz skill many times already winning the British Rapid, and also a heavy prize thing earlier in the year for 5 minute chess.

Why is it you think Grandmasters can do simultaneous displays, and play a move really quickly which is still a really good move?! A lot has to do with intuition and speed of calculation. Factor in also their age, and as a gross generalisation you could say that the young GM's are generally going to get better blitz results than the young FM's.

If we correlate the results of the recent World championship blitz but also factor in the ages of the contestants (age is deducable from the FIDE rating lists - birth year is given there), and also I think factor in when queens came off in games - i.e. endgames, there will be some more interesting patterns (generalisations) that could emerge. I think someone mentioned on another forum for example, that Carlsen's performance rating for games which had endgames (without queens), was actually in excess of 3000 performance rating. Carlsen is also a young Grandmaster, so fits the age affecting blitz ability assumption. The time control with the increment of 2 seconds a move favoured instantly played engames with less risk of running out of time.

I think this rather proves Cimon's point - some players (especially younger players) are significantly better at blitz than they are OTB. Of course, there are limits to this - most of the players on this list will likely be a GM someday, but there are some fairly low-rated (FIDE OTB) players on this list compared to the ICC 5-minute pool.

Originally posted by Erekose
I think this rather proves Cimon's point - some players (especially younger players) are significantly better at blitz than they are OTB. Of course, there are limits to this - most of the players on this list will likely be a GM someday, but there are some fairly low-rated (FIDE OTB) players on this list compared to the ICC 5-minute pool.

I think the only point which can be deduced is that it is very hard to make sweeping generalisations.

From my perspective I still stand behind the concrete examples I am aware of:

Adams, Kasparov, Howell, Jones - they have all exhibited first hand, an amazing ability at blitz chess. I also had the fine priveledge of playing Nakumara in real life blitz chess at Gibraltar. Nakumara tops a lot of the ICC all time records on the ICC and he is a GM - not an FM - not an IM. That is a fact which you or anyone else can't really argue about!

Highest human ratings:
----------------------
1-minute -- 3087 Smallville(GM) 31-Jul-2008
5-minute -- 2896 Smallville(GM) 01-Sep-2008
15-minute -- 2492 Smallville(GM) 27-Oct-2009
Bullet -- 3168 Smallville(GM) 18-Feb-2009
Blitz -- 3750 Smallville(GM) 14-Oct-2009
Standard -- 2855 Smallville(GM) 15-Jul-2004
Bughouse -- 2861 KingDan 22-Jan-2005
Crazyhouse -- 2699 Sage 25-Mar-2005
Loser's -- 2604 MST3K 12-Oct-2002

Here is a video of Nakumara playing a former Women's world champion which I put on youtube:

YouTube

Check out how well he plays the Nimzo indian in this video sample for yourself.

I actually get the impression that the strength of Nakumaras 5 minute chess game might be stronger than most peoples long OTB chess game on this and most correspondence sites. He is just completely awesome at blitz chess. But not in a way which is just winning games on time - his positinal play, tactics, and everything else are just brilliant.

Once you start factoring in other details like age, or queenless positions, then stronger patterns might emerge. It emerges that Carlsen was over 3000 performance rating in queenless endgames of his games.

For those that want to see Carlsen vs Nakumara, btw, the London classic is coming up: www.londonchessclassic.com

Originally posted by Tryfon Gavriel
I think the only point which can be deduced is that it is very hard to make sweeping generalisations.

From my perspective I still stand behind the concrete examples I am aware of:

Adams, Kasparov, Howell, Jones - they have all exhibited first hand, an amazing ability at blitz chess. I also had the fine priveledge of playing Nakumara in real lif ...[text shortened]... to see Carlsen vs Nakumara, btw, the London classic is coming up: www.londonchessclassic.com

I agree that "it is very hard to make sweeping generalisations" like "ability in blitz chess is the same as ability to play in standart time control". The fact that many strong GM's are good in both time controls means only that they have abilities for both of them and nothing more. It does not contradict "ability to play blitz is not the same as ability to play in standart time control" statement . Blitz Top 15 of ICC provided by you only supports my point (as Erekose has already pointed out).

Originally posted by Cimon
I agree that "it is very hard to make sweeping generalisations" like "ability in blitz chess is the same as ability to play in standart time control". The fact that many strong GM's are good in both time controls means only that they have abilities for both of them and nothing more. It does not contradict "ability to play blitz is not the same as ability to pl ...[text shortened]... op 15 of ICC provided by you only supports my point (as Erekose has already pointed out).

May I ask - how does the top 15 I presented support your point?!

Rank Rat. 5-minute
1 2800 Vidocq (GM)
2 2737 Pinkalmykia (GM)
3 2688 GUNSNROSES (No title shown)
4 2675 Sage (No title shown)
5 2663 Smallville<------ (GM Nakumara)
6 2639 KinkyLoek (GM Van Wely)
7 2624 Impitoyable (IM since 1996)
8 2618 denmanisgod (GM)
9 2607 KRASAVCHIK (GM)
10 2604 Hatred (IM)
11 2600 Alligator (IM)
12 2577 N-Chadaev (IM Nikolay Chadaev)
13 2575 VerdeNotte (GM Gawain Jones)
14 2573 DrainYou (GM Sune Berg Hansen)
15 2573 Yuka (IM Daniel Hausrath (ELO 2479)
4116 total

let's ignore the two untitled players (unless you really want to assume they are not even FMs ?!??)

That makes it about 10/15 are actually GM's in real life OTB classical chess. In percentage terms 10/15 = about 66%

Now let's ignore the 2 untitled players

10/13 = 76% of the top 10 who have titles are actually GM titled

and the other 5 are actually IM titles.

Where are all these amazing FM's that people seem to speak of as if blitz chess is a totally seperate game to Classical time controls?!

There is another point to be made here - as well as being difficult to make "sweeping generalisations", is how you treat data which you cannot be 100% certain of. Are you really treating the two "untitled" players on the top 15 list as literally untitled - i.e. as not even FM's ?! Is that what you wish to claim here about the data I presented from the top 15 list?! A straight YES or NO would be appreciated.