Interesting comment from chessgames.com:
according to the poster, the odds of Ivanov matching 27 consecutive moves of an Houdini are more than one in 18 QUINTILLION. Others pointed out that was too high as some moves were forced. Still they say it's basically zero chance
senojes: To get some idea of the improbability of two chess games containing a series of 27 identical moves in a row by chance:
Assume for the sake of illustration that there are 4 candidate moves (e.g. as listed by a chess engine) in each of 27 positions in a chess game. The probability that two players (or one player and a chess engine) would play a series of 27 identical moves in a row by chance in a game would then be of the order of 1 in 4^27, i.e. 1 in ~1.8x10^16 or 18 followed by 15 zeros. To be more exact, using Windows 7's calculator, it would be 1 in 18,014,398,509,481,984!
If someone wants to quibble about the number of candidate moves then they can plug their own estimate in. I used 4 candidate moves per move to be conservative. The improbability will still be ASTRONOMICAL that Ivanov (rating 2277) by chance played exactly the same move as Houdini 3 (rating 3344) for 27 moves in a row in a game of chess.
And as we shall see, that also happened in at least one other Ivanov game (I haven't checked then all out yet) in the same tournament.
Stephen E. Jones
Jan-08-13
Maatalkko: <senojes> I have to quibble a little with your math. In a wide-open position, sure there might be an average of four candidate moves that a GM would consider. However, there are also plenty of positions with forced recaptures, obvious plans, etc. where there are either one or two possibilities. For example, if there are 27 moves but seven are forced, then 4^20 is "only" one in ten trillion.
Obviously, your point remains valid. Try to play a consultation game with a friend of similar strength to you, and you will see how quickly two equal players will choose totally divergent paths. The odds of ANY two players choosing 27 identical moves are basically zero, let alone two players 1000 points apart in strength.
Jan-08-13 csmath: There are at least two games by Ivanov that match move-by-move Houdini engine. The best chess players in the world cannot do this, they deviate and sometimes not bad at all but they deviate. This guy was clearly using chess engine and not just any engine. He was using Houdini version 2.
Ivanov also claims he BEAT BOTH HOUDINI AND RYBKA BY A SCORE OF 10-0 EACH.
"I dont think there was anything special in my games at all. The Croatian GMs made some horrible mistakes during our games. Of course I practiced a lot with the computer, and after beating Rybka and Houdini by 10-0 each, i was absolutelly sure that no-one was gonna stop me winning. After all the arbiters were kind of polite and intelligent, you know, the other players weren't though..."
I guess if you believe he doesn't cheat, or that he's better than Carlsen & Capablanca, you'll believe his outrageous claim about CRUSHING those two 3200+ elo engines.
Give me a break.
Chess Scandal - the videos
10 Jun '13 18:521 edit
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