07 Nov '09 09:36>
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Originally posted by greenpawn34This method is too crude and is only suitable for blatant cheaters. Take a look at the work of people like Kenneth W. Regan and you'll start to get an idea of the real complexity of the problem.
using Squelch's top 3 method
Originally posted by greenpawn34a few years ago there was a big engine shootout at most of the big boys, and if I remember right capablanca did indeed come out on top. fischer has also done well in these as I remember. -one interesting point that I remember about it, was that a lot of the old guys were barely mediocre compared to current players, punching away as low as the 2000 level. the really big boys did all okay, but their opponents... the genius of morphy wasn't the only reason why he was crushing the competition.
It's sometimes good to 'bump' a post if it has, as is the case here, relevant
and excellent information in it.
I'm positive there is a good chess book waiting to be written using this data
crunching method.
A scan could be run over every World Champion using the one match that won
them the World Title. This would give an indication who played t ...[text shortened]... he
greatest ever pawn pusher this book is simply wating to be written.
A good bump.
Originally posted by VarenkaTop 3 matchup will of course only catch blatant engine users, but as I said, these are the most annoying.
This method is too crude and is only suitable for blatant cheaters. Take a look at the work of people like Kenneth W. Regan and you'll start to get an idea of the real complexity of the problem.
http://www.cse.buffalo.edu/~regan/chess/fidelity/
Originally posted by Fat LadyYou have to be careful because of the birthday paradox. The problem is that with millions of games played on the site the chances that someone has innocently replicated 20 engine moves in a row (I mean by chance rather than cheating) starts to get large. Since you'd expect a persistent engine user to be in the top couple of hundred players on the site and further checking is done before they ban someone it's not so much of a problem, but statistical proofs are notoriously tricky.
Despite having a degree in maths, I was never very interested in statistics.
However, if you consider that a very strong player has, say, a 0.65 chance of choosing a move which is Fritz' first choice in a particular position, then the probability of this player choosing Fritz' #1 move for the last 21 moves in a particular game would be 0.00012. I.e. you might expect to see this happen 1 game in every 8000.
Originally posted by DeepThoughthence the need for a large sample of games (i recall squelch recommended 20+) - but i expect Russ would want more for banning purposes.
You have to be careful because of the birthday paradox. The problem is that with millions of games played on the site the chances that [b]someone has innocently replicated 20 engine moves in a row (I mean by chance rather than cheating) starts to get large. Since you'd expect a persistent engine user to be in the top couple of hundred players on th ...[text shortened]... they ban someone it's not so much of a problem, but statistical proofs are notoriously tricky.[/b]