Extinction-by-asteroid

Would we survive if we spotted a planet-killer at the last minute?

Here's a new study with promising findings, although 6 months advanced warning seems like wishful thinking...

We discuss a hypothetical existential threat from a 10 km diameter comet discovered 6 months prior to impact. We show that an extension of our work on bolide fragmentation using an array of penetrators, but modified with small nuclear explosive devices (NED) in the penetrators, combined with soon-to-be-realized heavy lift launch assets with positive C3 such as NASA SLS or SpaceX Starship (with in-orbit refueling) is sufficient to mitigate this existential threat. A threat of this magnitude hitting the Earth at a closing speed of 40 km/s would have an impact energy of roughly 300 Teratons TNT, or about 40 thousand times larger than the current combined nuclear arsenal of the entire world. This is similar in energy to the KT extinction event that killed the dinosaurs some 66 million years ago. Such an event, if not mitigated, would be an existential threat to humanity. We show that mitigation is conceivable using existing technology, even with the short time scale of 6 months warning, but that the efficient coupling of the NED energy is critical.

@wildgrass
Definitely addressing a truly nightmarish scenario. So much math and engineering, on levels most of us cannot imagine...One tiny mistake and it's over. Even partial success becomes a nightmare, 3-4 much smaller pieces still hit, possibly taking out entire cities or other populated regions.

The universe is indescribably big. The Milky Way galaxy alone is mind-boggling. We have to know that that much existence has many ways to implement our destruction.

Then, just as dangerously, is the many ways Planet Earth can destroy us. Super volcanos, massive earthquakes, tsunamis, climate change, etc., all could wreak havoc on mankind. But extinction events...those will almost certainly come from outside the Earth's atmospheric region. W-a-a-a-y outside...

And still, with all of that, mankind is only unified on one thing--division.

@liljo said
@wildgrass
Definitely addressing a truly nightmarish scenario. So much math and engineering, on levels most of us cannot imagine...One tiny mistake and it's over. Even partial success becomes a nightmare, 3-4 much smaller pieces still hit, possibly taking out entire cities or other populated regions.

The universe is indescribably big. The Milky Way galaxy alone is mind-bog ...[text shortened]... W-a-a-a-y outside...

And still, with all of that, mankind is only unified on one thing--division.

@wildgrass said
Would we survive if we spotted a planet-killer at the last minute?

Here's a new study with promising findings, although 6 months advanced warning seems like wishful thinking...

We discuss a hypothetical existential threat from a 10 km diameter comet discovered 6 months prior to impact. We show that an extension of our work on bolide fragmentation using an array o ...[text shortened]... hat the efficient coupling of the NED energy is critical.

https://arxiv.org/abs/2201.10663

@vivify said
What happens if this 10km planet killer landed in the middle of the ocean?

I hope something like this happens in my lifetime 🙏

@Contenchess
...If it does, I hope you have lived to be about 1000 years old.

I pray it doesn't happen in the lifetime of my grandchild, or her grandchildren, or their grandchildren.

But, the fact is, the Earth has been hit before, and will be hit again. Sooner or later. Or Yellowstone, which has blown before will blow again. Sooner or later.

Comets, asteroids, massive tectonic plate shifts causing giant tsunamis, super volcanic eruptions that spew enough into our atmosphere and spread enough ash to destroy crop growth, deadly viruses, coronal mass ejections of our Sun--there are just so many terrible events that could happen at any time to erase the existence of all or much of humanity.

All of these things are FAR more likely to happen than ANYONE'S politicians to "make things better."

@liljo said
@Contenchess
...If it does, I hope you have lived to be about 1000 years old.

I pray it doesn't happen in the lifetime of my grandchild, or her grandchildren, or their grandchildren.

But, the fact is, the Earth has been hit before, and will be hit again. Sooner or later. Or Yellowstone, which has blown before will blow again. Sooner or later.

Comets, asteroids, mass ...[text shortened]... All of these things are FAR more likely to happen than ANYONE'S politicians to "make things better."

@wildgrass said
Maybe I'm thinking too optimistically for our current age, but this article gives me hope. Someone, somewhere, is thinking about solutions to possible existential threats and formulating arguments on feasibility, alternatives, timelines, etc.

This is a good thing I think. We don't have to just lie down and accept our extinction, we can find ways to overcome challenges.

@wildgrass said
this article gives me hope. Someone, somewhere, is thinking about solutions to possible existential threats and formulating arguments on feasibility, alternatives, timelines, etc.

This is a good thing I think. We don't have to just lie down and accept our extinction, we can find ways to overcome challenges.

@vivify said
Thread 189870

@wildgrass said
SO you're saying we've been down this road in the forums before?

My take on this is more mathematical than scientific.
The probabilitythat we will destroy ourselves and our planet by our actions is ,I think more likely than earth being struck by an extra terrestrial object.
Perhaps we should be concentrating on these issues than worrying about asteroids.
Identifying the difference between want and need would be a good start.

@venda said
My take on this is more mathematical than scientific.
The probabilitythat we will destroy ourselves and our planet by our actions is ,I think more likely than earth being struck by an extra terrestrial object.
Perhaps we should be concentrating on these issues than worrying about asteroids.
Identifying the difference between want and need would be a good start.

@wildgrass said
Would we survive if we spotted a planet-killer at the last minute?

Here's a new study with promising findings, although 6 months advanced warning seems like wishful thinking...

We discuss a hypothetical existential threat from a 10 km diameter comet discovered 6 months prior to impact. We show that an extension of our work on bolide fragmentation using an array o ...[text shortened]... hat the efficient coupling of the NED energy is critical.

https://arxiv.org/abs/2201.10663