04 Apr '11 15:48>
Originally posted by dj2beckerThis is a sufficient condition, not a necessary one.
So 'evolution' as you define it cannot take place without 'parents' to pass on the genetic code to the 'offspring'?
Originally posted by twhitehead
The first error you made in your OP, was to pick Shakespeare. Even assuming that a human being came about via purely random typing on a type writer, you should have done your calculation not for Shakespeare, not for all books in existence, but for any possible book. Now redo your calculation and I think you will find quite a big difference. However, you w ...[text shortened]... kespeare can be produced in a remarkably short space of time.
Does anyone have a link for this?
I believe that people have written programs that use evolutions processes and monkeys, and have proven that even something as unique as Shakespeare can be produced in a remarkably short space of time.
Originally posted by KellyJayWithout arguing for evolution, I want to point out that anyone looking at the issue neutrally, cannot rationally accept your position. Given enough trials (die throws, roulette spins, lotto ticket purchases, etc.,) events that are highly unlikely on a single trial, become likely to have occurred at least once. And of course, we have no data on the probabilities and number of trials concerning the emergence and evolution of life. People pick the analogies and numbers that suit their preconceived conclusions.
I think what it is being given credit for is highly unlikely yes.
Kelly
Originally posted by twhiteheadSaying it's a necessary condition seems a very strong statement. If I think of epigenetics I don't think it fits my condition very well. I can think of other potential (but hypothetical) problems with demanding the condition to be necessary.
Surely it is the only necessary condition? Of course with the understanding that a 'parent' may be a single cell, or anything capable of self replication.
Originally posted by JS357Again, evolution on this planet seems to be given a limitless amount of time with
Without arguing for evolution, I want to point out that anyone looking at the issue neutrally, cannot rationally accept your position. Given enough trials (die throws, roulette spins, lotto ticket purchases, etc.,) events that are highly unlikely on a single trial, become likely to have occurred at least once. And of course, we have no data on the probabilitie ...[text shortened]... to get any one of the numbers in 13,983,816 drawings is 63.212057% (0.63212057).
unquote
Originally posted by KellyJayNobody said a limitless amount of time was needed. You were the one that set that condition by saying "given enough time".
Again, evolution on this planet seems to be given a limitless amount of time with
all the right conditions at hand till it was done right! Was that ever true, and if so
for how long was true? I don’t think there ever was a limitless amount of trial
and error let alone one that just lets us keep just the good results that suit life.
Just simply having al ...[text shortened]... redited for is beyond reason in my opinion, not beyond faith of true
believers it seems.
Kelly
Originally posted by JS357With roulette spins or lotto picks once a spin is made or number is picked nothing
Without arguing for evolution, I want to point out that anyone looking at the issue neutrally, cannot rationally accept your position. Given enough trials (die throws, roulette spins, lotto ticket purchases, etc.,) events that are highly unlikely on a single trial, become likely to have occurred at least once. And of course, we have no data on the probabilitie to get any one of the numbers in 13,983,816 drawings is 63.212057% (0.63212057).
unquote
Originally posted by PalynkaDoes your stipulation regarding cardinality overcome the following, so that the definite statement "...anything that could happen, will" is valid?
Given enough time (i.e. if time is infinite and with a cardinality of time bigger than the cardinality of possible events) then anything that could happen will.
Note that for this condition on cardinalities to be true, then I'm excluding the definition of possible events as being time conditional (i.e. "humans will evolve" is an event but not "humans will evolve before time t" is not).
Originally posted by KellyJay“...The random mutations are all the feeds natural selection so getting bad hands (mutations) can end the life, getting non-death threatening hands
Think of it this way, evolution is like playing cards except there are a lot more
than 52 in a deck. No matter how fast each hand is dealt you still only get what
was dealt to you. The random mutations are all the feeds natural selection so
getting bad hands (mutations) can end the life, getting non-death threatening hands
(mutations) is still bad if th ...[text shortened]... e is that the deck is
stacked towards life, I see no reason to accept that what so ever.
Kelly
Originally posted by JS357Almost surely. 😀
Does your stipulation regarding cardinality overcome the following, so that the definite statement "...anything that could happen, will" is valid?
Given an event E having a finite probability 0<P<1 of occurrence on a single trial; as the number of trials N approaches (but does not reach) infinity, the probability that E will occur at least once, approaches (but does not reach) 1 and is given by 1-((1-P)^N)
Originally posted by KellyJayThe formulas are the same.
With roulette spins or lotto picks once a spin is made or number is picked nothing
about the odds change the next time a spin or pick is made. With chemical
reactions if you need X and Y to make something and if X gets altered into Q due to
it getting mixed wrong you lose all chances of making whatever it was you needed
X and Y for. Not only would that ...[text shortened]... another throw or spin. So evolution does not
get limitless chances over countless years!
Kelly
Originally posted by PalynkaOK, I focused on the 'parent' and didn't see the 'genetic code'.
Saying it's a necessary condition seems a very strong statement. If I think of epigenetics I don't think it fits my condition very well. I can think of other potential (but hypothetical) problems with demanding the condition to be necessary.
Of course, most of epigenetic variation is (as the etymology of the word indicates) on top of genetic variation so it's just a minor quibble.