*Originally posted by OdBod*

**I had a vision I know it to be true ,God told me that creation occurred one hour ago. Everything we think we know is nothing more than implanted memories,and because God can do anything, the physical universe was set up exactly as we perceive it now. Prove me wrong!**

The Observed Universe has the appearance of being 13.77 Ga old.

If we consider the smallest unit of time to be the second that corresponds to approximately 4.3454815E+17 seconds.

If we consider the proposition that the universe could have been created any second in the last 13.77 billion years

looking like it was created at a point in time 13.77 billion years before the present then there are of the order of 4.35E+17

possible creation points.

With no evidence for choosing any of these creation points the probability of any one of them being the real creation point

is {1 / 4.35E+17} * [Probability the universe was created looking old]

In the limit where [Probability the universe was created looking old]=1

The probability mass for any given creation point is appx 2.3e-18 (or about 1 in 435 thousand trillion)*

This is the maximum probability we can assign to the hypothesis that the universe was created 1 hr before the OP in this thread.

However in reality the probability we would reasonable assign would be many orders of magnitude lower than that.

As Occam's razor (formalised by Solomonoff Induction and Bayesian theory) tells us that the hypothesis that the universe was

created at some arbitrary moment by a deity with an appearance identical to a universe created naturally some arbitrary time

earlier is incredibly improbable in of itself.

While I do not feel the need to do a full analysis of this here...

I would feel comfortable assigning odds of at least 1e-6 for [Probability the universe was created looking old]

This gives us a conservative estimate for the probability of the hypothesis in the op at 2.3e-24 (or about 1 in 435 billion trillion)*

This means that the evidence required to establish the premise in the OP must be sufficient to overcome a prior probability of

435,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 to 1 against.

Lacking such evidence the premise in the op is sufficiently improbable to be considered refuted.

*Short scale

EDIT: Oh, and anyone who wants to quibble about using seconds as the smallest measurement of time...

I am more than happy to readjust for plank time units... making it [the premise in the OP] ~5.4e+44 times less likely...