How to get into the MLB playoffs

Originally posted by quackquack
Tampa has won the AL East two of the last three years and has the second lowest payroll, can you guarantee they will not make it this year? Did you guarantee they would not make it last year? did you guarantee they would not make it two years before that?

Cleveland is a half game out they have the fifth lowest payroll and Arizona has the sixth lowest payroll they are three out. Can you guarantee these two teams won't make it?

Exactly my point. And don't forget Pittsburgh is in the hunt as well as Cincinnati
(although I have already guaranteed they won't win).

I also believe the Rangers payroll is not that high either, although I haven't checked.

There is a movie coming out called Moneyball, which depicts the Oakland A's under
Billy Beane when the concept of competing on a shoestring using statistical matrices
to determine talent level and relative costs.

Since you probably didn't read about it, you can watch it and learn a bit, although
I am not sure how much Hollywood will play it up from what it was in reality.

Originally posted by shortcircuit
Exactly my point. And don't forget Pittsburgh is in the hunt as well as Cincinnati
(although I have already guaranteed they won't win).

I also believe the Rangers payroll is not that high either, although I haven't checked.

Good point, Pittsburgh has the third lowest payroll and they are one game out. So Tampa, Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Arizona (all in the bottom six) are currently very competitive for playoff spots.

Originally posted by quackquack
Good point, Pittsburgh has the third lowest payroll and they are one game out. So Tampa, Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Arizona (all in the bottom six) are currently very competitive for playoff spots.

I guess uzless with come back with the argument that the season is only half over.
Especially since I chided him on his declaration of who was already in the playoffs.

At least we have shown the hypothesis they presented is quite porous and won't hold water.

Originally posted by uzless
I guarantee you the bottom 4 payroll teams don't get in.

I wouldn't say that. As I have said, a handful of "poor" teams have winning seasons and a handful of "rich" teams have losing seasons. When it is all said and done this correlates to the majority of teams in the playoffs being "rich" teams. This then correlates to a greater chance that a "rich" team will win it all.

In addition, you fail to take into consideration some confounding factors regarding some teams like Tampa. Tampa resides in a tax free state. This means that even though players may make much less than a player in New York, their take home pay is closer than you think after taxes are taken out. In addition, many get payed in sunshine, not just $$$. And lastly, Tampa resides in the most brutal division in baseball. This can only make them play better against the rest of the Major Leagues. Also, Tampa appears to have really good management. Good management of teams is why low pay rolls like the Twins consistantly have winning seasons, even though they have no prayer in winning it all.....ever.

Originally posted by shortcircuit
I guess uzless with come back with the argument that the season is only half over.
Especially since I chided him on his declaration of who was already in the playoffs.

At least we have shown the hypothesis they presented is quite porous and won't hold water.

Actually, the more teams play the more the odds play out to favor the better teams. It is kinda like Las Vegas. Sure, you can win a hand or two to begin with but the more you play the more the odds dictate that you will lose because the odds are simply stacked against you.

Originally posted by whodey
I wouldn't say that. As I have said, a handful of "poor" teams have winning seasons and a handful of "rich" teams have losing seasons. When it is all said and done this correlates to the majority of teams in the playoffs being "rich" teams. This then correlates to a greater chance that a "rich" team will win it all.

In addition, you fail to take into co ...[text shortened]... antly have winning seasons, even though they have no prayer in winning it all.....ever.

The Houston Astros and Texas Rangers both reside in a state that has no state income tax.

Toronto pays no US tax at all!!

So, your point is not exactly as clear as you paint it. Houston's payroll used to be among the top 8 or 10 prior to the fire sale last year.

Originally posted by shortcircuit
The Houston Astros and Texas Rangers both reside in a state that has no state income tax.

Toronto pays no US tax at all!!

So, your point is not exactly as clear as you paint it. Houston's payroll used to be among the top 8 or 10 prior to the fire sale last year.

And both teams have been to a World Series of late.

As for the Blue Jays, what taxes do they pay? Any ideas what goes on in Canada?

Originally posted by whodey
Actually, the more teams play the more the odds play out to favor the better teams. It is kinda like Las Vegas. Sure, you can win a hand or two to begin with but the more you play the more the odds dictate that you will lose the more you play because the odds are simply stacked against you.

Not a big poker player are you??

I happen to be...Las Vegas style.

Ever heard of being short stacked for the bulk of the tournament, only to catch fire at the end and win it all?

Happens in baseball too.
The chip leaders at the midpoint aren't guaranteed a seat at the final table, much less
to win the big prize.

Originally posted by whodey
And both teams have been to a World Series of late.

As for the Blue Jays, what taxes do they pay? Any ideas what goes on in Canada?

Yes, because EVERY visiting player from EVERY team pays the same tax level for
EVERY city they play in. Guess you didn't know that???

That means, the New York players play state tax free in Florida and Texas, and when
the Rays, Marlins, Astros and Rangers play in NY, they pay New York state tax.

Weren't you aware that players earn money on a game by game basis and then are
paid for the previous week or two weeks accumulated revenue based on their contract?

Originally posted by shortcircuit
Yes, because EVERY visiting player from EVERY team pays the same tax level for
EVERY city they play in. Guess you didn't know that???

That means, the New York players play state tax free in Florida and Texas, and when
the Rays, Marlins, Astros and Rangers play in NY, they pay New York state tax.

Weren't you aware that players earn money on a gam ...[text shortened]... then are
paid for the previous week or two weeks accumulated revenue based on their contract?

Some players play half of their games in Florida or Texas and others play a handful of games. This is a huge reason why in capped sports (where you can't make more via higher salaries) like the NBA, LeBron goes to Miami where his after tax money will be higher and Texas has three good basketball teams.

State tax is tiny relatively. That shouldn't be a factor. You're not talking about each team's farm system. The Marlin's recruitment has been rated at the top year after year. Does this matter?

I know they sell them off when they prove themselves at the Major League level, but this obviously sheds more light on the debate.

TV revenue should be considered also.

Originally posted by SmookieP
State tax is tiny relatively. That shouldn't be a factor. You're not talking about each team's farm system. The Marlin's recruitment has been rated at the top year after year. Does this matter?

I know they sell them off when they prove themselves at the Major League level, but this obviously sheds more light on the debate.

TV revenue should be considered also.

It is less tiny when we talk about capped sports and certain teams can offer more purchasing power to players than others.

Originally posted by shortcircuit
[b
You cannot show me ONE year where the top 8 highest salaried teams all made the playoffs.[/b]

of course not, considering that the 8th payroll team is so much closer to the rest of the lower payroll teams that the top 4 are. Being 6, 7, or 8 doesn't guarantee much but being 1,2,3, or 4 usually does.

This really isn't that hard to understand.

Originally posted by uzless
of course not, considering that the 8th payroll team is so much closer to the rest of the lower payroll teams that the top 4 are. Being 6, 7, or 8 doesn't guarantee much but being 1,2,3, or 4 usually does.

This really isn't that hard to understand.

Your complaint simply does not show the true picture.

(1) Small markets teams such as Tampa and the Twins continually make the playoffs.
(2) We have divisions like the AL and NL central where small market teams primarily play against each other and get a playoff spot even if teams like Boston, New York and Philly are better.
(3) There is huge revenue sharing so the more big teams spend the more small market teams get.
(4) There is a draft and bad teams get the opportunity to get the best shot of future stars while the good teams simply don't get that opportunity. Thus players like Strausberg and Mauer who people think are can't miss stars go to teams that did worse and are paid far less than they would be if they were free agents.
(5) There is compensation for signing free agents and in a post steriod era free agents have been less and less reliable.

Finally, and to me most importantl. MLB is not an intramural sport if you want a team you need to do more than just pay a franchise fee you need to have investment in the team. The higher payroll teams have made the investments (and so have their fans) and the teams that just pocket revenue sharing deserve what they get.