16 Jun 13
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Originally posted by no1marauderYes you did! Want me to pull it up? You said the difference was statistically insignificant.
I never said CK didn't throw more "deep" balls.
What you said is that Smith "artificially inflated" his completion percentage. But the fact is he is a more accurate passer on short and medium throws than CK and virtually any other QB. That is why he had such a high completion percentage.
Those short and so-called "medium" passes are the SAFE passes everyone is talking about. Add that to the fact that he was way more prone to take sacks because he was always looking for the perfect pass opportunity.
Alex Smith played it safe. Everyone, including NFL coaches know it, except for you.
16 Jun 13
Originally posted by USArmyParatrooperIt's "statistically insignificant" to YOUR claim that Alex Smith only had a high completion percentage because he threw an inordinate number of "short" passes. In fact, every NFL QB throws a heavy majority of his passes short and medium AND Alex Smith in 2012 was more accurate on those passes then virtually any other QB.
Yes you did! Want me to pull it up? You said the difference was statistically insignificant.
Those short and so-called "medium" passes are the SAFE passes everyone is talking. Add that to the fact that he was way more prone to take sacks because he was always looking for the perfect pass opportunity.
Alex Smith played it safe. Everyone, including NFL coaches know it, except for you.
Admitting you were wrong won't kill you; there are legitimate reasons to favor CK over Smith. But that Smith isn't a very accurate passer isn't one of them.
16 Jun 13
Originally posted by USArmyParatrooperI linked the stats which are broken down in 10 yard increments. AS was more accurate than CK behind the line: 84.6% v. 78.3%; from 1-10: 74.1% to 67.0%; and from 11-20: 56.4% v. 50.0%.
Wonderful. And a pass "under 20 yards" could be a 19 yard pass or it could be a pass behind the line of scrimmage.
I'll take misleading statistics for 1000, Alex.
17 Jun 13
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Originally posted by no1marauderOK, before I dig it up, are you denying ever arguing that Kaepernick does NOT have a higher propensity to throw deep? You know it's too late to edit your older posts, right? Just say the word and I'll dig it up. It's OK to admit you were wrong.
It's "statistically insignificant" to YOUR claim that Alex Smith only had a high completion percentage because he threw an inordinate number of "short" passes. In fact, every NFL QB throws a heavy majority of his passes short and medium AND Alex Smith in 2012 was more accurate on those passes then virtually any other QB.
Admitting you wer s to favor CK over Smith. But that Smith isn't a very accurate passer isn't one of them.
Alex Smith may or may not be the most accurate short passer, I would have to compare the stats. But either way, his propensity to rarely exceed a 15-yarder certainly helps his overall completion percentage.
Edit: As does his willingness to take sacks waiting for the perfect pass to open up.
17 Jun 13
Originally posted by USArmyParatrooperDoing some mathematical extrapolations based on AS completion percentages at the various distances, if he thrown the exact same mix as CK, he would have completed 5 or 6 less passes and would have had a completion percentage in the range of 67.5-68.0% rather than 70.2%. I think that is "statistically insignificant"; only Matty Ice and Peyton Manning would have been higher and he still would have been at least 5 percentage points higher than CK.
OK, before I dig it up, are you denying ever arguing that Kaepernick does NOT have a higher propensity to throw deep? You know it's too late to edit your older posts, right? Just say the word and I'll dig it up. It's OK to admit you were wrong.
Alex Smith may or may not be the most accurate short passer, I would have to compare the stats. But e ...[text shortened]... ensity to rarely exceed a 15-yarder certainly helps his overall completion percentage.
17 Jun 13
Originally posted by no1marauderWell, fortunately for my side of the argument only a moron would extrapolate if Smith took more chances by throwing deep more often his percentage would remain the same.
Doing some mathematical extrapolations based on AS completion percentages at the various distances, if he thrown the exact same mix as CK, he would have completed 5 or 6 less passes and would have had a completion percentage in the range of 67.5-68.0% rather than 70.2%. I think that is "statistically insignificant"; only Matty Ice and Peyton Manning would have been higher and he still would have been at least 5 percentage points higher than CK.
Also, you're deflecting. The original disagreement came when I chastised Smith for rarely attempting to throw deep. Do you admit you were wrong, or are you going to continue changing the argument?
17 Jun 13
Originally posted by USArmyParatrooperSmith was sacked 24 times; CK 16 times on the same amount of pass attempts. Considering CK is far more mobile, that doesn't seem like a big difference based on Smith's decision making; more likely CK was able to avoid the rush more times than Smith (an advantage surely).
OK, before I dig it up, are you denying ever arguing that Kaepernick does NOT have a higher propensity to throw deep? You know it's too late to edit your older posts, right? Just say the word and I'll dig it up. It's OK to admit you were wrong.
Alex Smith may or may not be the most accurate short passer, I would have to compare the stats. But e ...[text shortened]... tage.
Edit: As does his willingness to take sacks waiting for the perfect pass to open up.
17 Jun 13
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Originally posted by USArmyParatrooperYes a "moron" would suppose that someone should extrapolate based on actual statistics rather than simply fill in the blanks with their preconceived notions like you do.🙄
Well, fortunately for my side of the argument only a moron would extrapolate if Smith took more chances by throwing deep more often his percentage would remain the same.
Also, you're deflecting. The original disagreement came when I chastised Smith for rarely attempting to throw deep. Do you admit you were wrong, or are you going to continue changing the argument?
No, the original disagreement was on your claim that Smith only had a high completion percentage BECAUSE he rarely threw deep. Now that that has shown to have been wrong and that AS, in fact, was more accurate on his short and medium throws than virtually every QB in the NFL, it is YOU who should help yourself to that plate of crow but you seem to be too little of a man to do so.
EDIT: In case you forgot:
Stormtrooper: You can artificially inflate those numbers by only throwing short high percentage passes
17 Jun 13
Originally posted by no1marauderAlex Smith is no slouch when it comes to the bootlegs.
Smith was sacked 24 times; CK 16 times on the same amount of pass attempts. Considering CK is far more mobile, that doesn't seem like a big difference based on Smith's decision making; more likely CK was able to avoid the rush more times than Smith (an advantage surely).
I'm not sure there's a statistical way to show it, but I can tell you from watching the 49ers every week that Alex Smith has a tendency to hang on to the ball too long and needlessly take the sack instead of trying for the tighter window, or just throwing the ball away (hurting his % numbers).
To many 49ers fans it seemed like he was overly protective of his numbers, although that's pure speculation. He's otherwise a very classy player.
17 Jun 13
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Originally posted by USArmyParatrooperEven CK got sacked 7.0% of the time he dropped back to throw (excluding scrambles for gains) which is rather high (of teams that made the playoffs only GB appears to be higher). Maybe your OL wasn't that good at pass protection.
Alex Smith is no slouch when it comes to the bootlegs.
I'm not sure there's a statistical way to show it, but I can tell you from watching the 49ers every week that Alex Smith has a tendency to hang on to the ball too long and needlessly take the sack instead of trying for the tighter window, or just throwing the ball away (hurting his % number ...[text shortened]... ctive of his numbers, although that's pure speculation. He's otherwise a very classy player.
EDIT: R.Wilson was a bit higher and RG III about the same.
17 Jun 13
Originally posted by no1marauderYou don't HAVE actual statistics of Smith throwing more deep balls.
Yes a "moron" would suppose that someone should extrapolate based on actual statistics rather than simply fill in the blanks with their preconceived notions like you do.🙄
No, the original disagreement was on your claim that Smith only had a high completion percentage BECAUSE he rarely threw deep. Now that that has shown to have been wrong an ...[text shortened]... oper: You can artificially inflate those numbers by only throwing short high percentage passes
No1, I know you're not stupid so I can only assume you're being disingenuous right now.
The dynamics of football are far more complex simply taking a tiny sample size of passes and assuming you can multiply them to the same effect. Why do you think the NFL requires a minimum amount of passes to hold a record? I know you know this.
Do you think "Captain Checkdown" was checking down to shorter passes because I thought less yards is better? He can throw just as well long and he just chooses to settle for less yards?
Also, I said the ORIGINAL argument. The one I pointed to where I said I proved you wrong (and did, because now you're admitting I'm right).
17 Jun 13
Originally posted by USArmyParatrooperThe entire difference between the number of passes thrown over 20 yards by AS and CK was 14. So, yes, it is reasonable to extrapolate considering such a small sample size. Actually Smith was more accurate than CK on passes over 30, so CK's only advantage was in passes between 21-30. I'm not being disingenuous, but you are being stubborn and unreasonable by absolutely refusing to accept evidence just because it is contrary to your argument. You've been hanging around the right wingers in Debates too long .....................................................
You don't HAVE actual statistics of Smith throwing more deep balls.
No1, I know you're not stupid so I can only assume you're being disingenuous right now.
The dynamics of football are far more complex simply taking a tiny sample size of passes and assuming you can multiply them to the same effect. Why do you think the NFL requires a minimu ...[text shortened]... ted to where I said I proved you wrong (and did, because now you're admitting I'm right).
17 Jun 13
Originally posted by no1marauderThese numbers you're using ignore the playoffs and the Super Bowl, right?
The entire difference between the number of passes thrown over 20 yards by AS and CK was 14. So, yes, it is reasonable to extrapolate considering such a small sample size. Actually Smith was more accurate than CK on passes over 30, so CK's only advantage was in passes between 21-30. I'm not being disingenuous, but you are being stubborn and unreasonable ...[text shortened]... d the right wingers in Debates too long .....................................................
Also, you can NOT take less pass attempts, add to them, and then assume the percentage would stay the same. Those passes you're magically adding.... those are throws that Alex Smith did not want to make.
17 Jun 13
http://www.redhotpawn.com/board/showthread.php?threadid=150111&page=&page=7
Here's the post where you accuse me of "seeing what I want to see" and having "bias" because I rightfully and correctly observed that Colin Kaepernick throws the ball deep much more often than Smith.