@petewxyz saidYou can go back on this very Forum and see that in June a similar situation was present in the US; confirmed cases were still high but deaths had dropped down to about 600 a week from a high of well over 2000 during April. The cry went out to relax mandatory public health measures particularly in States that had experienced few deaths. So that is what happened plus people in those areas started ignoring social distancing, mask wearing, gathering restrictions, etc. etc. etc.
@no1marauder
They key here is that admissions are down. The hospital system is not currently overwhelmed in the U.K. and there is therefore hopefully a reduction to come in the unnecessary deaths caused by introducing the virus to people with serious illnesses and vulnerable staff within the hospital system. It was suggested a couple of weeks ago that that group made up 20% ...[text shortened]... aths that must inevitably occur with any serious illness and that even those seem to be tailing off.
And the result was predictable; deaths per week almost doubled in July and have remained at a high plateau since.
So seeing the same argument played out in the UK (with the added attraction of the government there playing fast and loose with the death stats) brings an unpleasant feeling of deja vu.
Of course, DG refused to even tell us what measures presently in effect should be relaxed though I expressly asked him to. It's kinda hard to debate an issue when someone won't tell us what their actual position is (besides the number of people dying now is "insignificant" because the government changed the definition).
-Removed-Utter rubbish with no data to support it. In fact:
"The United Kingdom suffered the highest rate of excess deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic in a comparison of 21 European countries, an analysis from Britain’s statistics office showed on Thursday.
Epidemiologists say excess mortality - deaths from all causes that exceed the five-year average for the time of year - is the best way of gauging deaths from a disease outbreak because it is internationally comparable.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) analysis confirmed Britain’s place as one of the countries worst hit by a pandemic that has killed more than 666,000 people worldwide.
Around 65,000 more people than usual have died from all causes across the United Kingdom so far this year, the highest total in Europe.
Thursday’s figures showed the United Kingdom also had Europe’s highest excess death rate when adjusted for the size and age of its population."
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-britain-deaths/uk-had-europes-highest-rate-of-excess-deaths-during-covid-19-pandemic-official-idUSKCN24V1UC
I anxiously await your explanation for this. The UK government can fudge the COVID numbers by ludicrously claiming that no one dies of COVID 29 days after a positive test, but they can't hide the total number of deaths (at least they haven't yet).
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-Removed-The article you cite shows that the 28 day cut off point is totally arbitrary and unscientific:
"However, there is no agreed cut-off after which COVID-19 can be excluded as a likely cause and sadly, we know that some people die from their infection many weeks later."
And while you keep trying to ignore the excess deaths:
"Another approach to assessing the impact of COVID-19 is to calculate the excess death rate. This method compares the total number of deaths in a week to the average expected from previous years. This is an excellent method, but it also takes some time for the results to be available."
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@no1marauder saidIn a detached way that is what makes the U.K. an interesting case. Aside from the total mismanagement which resulted in the situation (which is not disputed) we allowed the population to be massively exposed to the virus. People even turned out to be asymptomatic carriers in Nursing Homes supposed to have barriers with the outside world. Hospitals reused tiny disposable plastic aprons and surgical masks as if that were PPE and in some places couldn't even get sufficient of those.
Utter rubbish with no data to support it. In fact:
"The United Kingdom suffered the highest rate of excess deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic in a comparison of 21 European countries, an analysis from Britain’s statistics office showed on Thursday.
Epidemiologists say excess mortality - deaths from all causes that exceed the five-year average for the time of ...[text shortened]... s after a positive test, but they can't hide the total number of deaths (at least they haven't yet).
I am curious to consider whether a fall in admission rates might mean something different in a country that possibly allowed itself to become saturated with virus carriers back in March and April before there was community testing to demonstrate just how far that went. There is room for curiosity from a position of uncertainty. It can certainly be said that the proportion of people in the U.K. for whom this virus is novel must be the lowest for any country in the world.
-Removed-It’s a balancing line: public safety vs business pressure.
The tories swung too much in favour of business and had to realign policy harshly.
Because of this they let go too soon.
See it as steering a boat. You have to look far ahead and very gently correct the path. Once you over compensate, you end up swinging from one correction to another.