@divegeester
I think people should be paying more attention to admission rates than to test results when making public policy. The two week duration was a myth. From my personal experience and many case reports the non-hospital cases were often lasting 7-11 weeks, but obviously not well studied with everybody focussed on the severe end at that time and no test kits. So if you study prevalence at any one time and your estimate of duration is out by a factor of four or more, then your estimate of incidence of new cases will be too high by that factor.
The issue with COVID is trying not to overwhelm the hospitals and not killing people with other serious illnesses who get caught in the crossfire so trends in admission rates are key in my opinion (in the absence of better data).
Admission rates are not going up again in the UK to the best of my knowledge and we seem to be making policy according to test results which seems too risk averse. We have no idea of what the community test results predict since we weren't doing testing at this level when COVID was its height so no meaningful data for comparison.
I'm increasingly thinking decisions should be made in response to changes in admission rates only rather than inconsistent and constantly changing reaction to local pockets of test results. Time for some strong decisive leadership?
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@torunn saidIt is confusing.
We now seem to have different reports on people who died with corona virus and those who died of corona virus.
Am currently dealing with several bereavements (all over 65) and still unsure if they died of the virus or simply died 'with the virus' but as a result of other factors.
@ghost-of-a-duke saidMy understanding is that earlier it was assumed that - and this particularly refers to old and elderly people - the corona virus was the cause of death but now I read that many of those had other serious issues and the doctors are uncertain what actually was the cause of death. It may not seem important but I think it is - old people should not be kept in isolation from their families if it isn't absolutely necessary.
It is confusing.
Am currently dealing with several bereavements (all over 65) and still unsure if they died of the virus or simply died 'with the virus' but as a result of other factors.
@torunn saidbeen trying to find info on recent normal cause of death numbers.
My understanding is that earlier it was assumed that - and this particularly refers to old and elderly people - the corona virus was the cause of death but now I read that many of those had other serious issues and the doctors are uncertain what actually was the cause of death. It may not seem important but I think it is - old people should not be kept in isolation from their families if it isn't absolutely necessary.
If cause of death is being wrongly attributed shouldnt those numbers be down? I cant find any info on this.
-Removed-It is certainly a dangerous illness. I was talking to a GP friend this morning and it seems that there is also an emerging picture (in a significant minority) of some longer term consequences with effects on local areas of brain and other organs. There are clearly reasons to treat this illness with respect.
On the other hand the picture of a longer lasting illness means that if somebody tests positive you really don't know if they are a new case. Maybe they have had the virus for months. This means that positive tests do not imply new cases and are perhaps a less good measure of the current rate of infection in new cases than people had hoped. On the other hand admission rates and death rates allow some comparison with data from four months ago and perhaps they should be guiding public health policy.
-Removed-Don’t go by deaths.
Many people have severe lung or heart problems for (at least) months after contracting it. Some have brain clots.
The people catching it at the moment are youths and healthy people out partying, swimming and things. Their death rate will be far lower than with the elderly.
Hospital admissions are on the up.
@torunn saidhttps://www.facebook.com/MsKHB/videos/779470169535453
My understanding is that earlier it was assumed that - and this particularly refers to old and elderly people - the corona virus was the cause of death but now I read that many of those had other serious issues and the doctors are uncertain what actually was the cause of death. It may not seem important but I think it is - old people should not be kept in isolation from their families if it isn't absolutely necessary.
I bet its the same in most countries.