I won't be around until the results start coming in, so as a public service I'll provide this link which shows when polls close in all the States, what order they'll be counting mail-ins and early voting v. election day votes and how and in what direction that might skew early results: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/
I predicted a long time ago (pre COVID) that Biden would win the popular vote by 51% to 46% and get a clear EC victory. I see little reason to change that forecast though Biden make get a percentage point or so more. I don't think the EC is going to be terribly close; Biden should garner at least 300 EC votes and probably more.
I also predicted Dems would get a 5 seat gain in the Senate. I think that's about right though it might be only 4 as Jones seems to be a goner in Alabama. Gardner, McSally, Tillis and Collins I predict will all lose and the Dems will pick up another seat or so somewhere. I don't see any other Dem seat changing hands; Peters should beat James in Michigan by about as much as Stabenow did a couple of years ago.
I predict a small Dem gain in the House; 5 to 10 seats.
Everybody else have fun with your own predictions; I'll be on tomorrow as I usually am on Election Night.
trump and his cronies have been trying their best to disallow votes and voting for various groups for months.
They held rallies during a pandemic.
They’ve terrorized campaign busses.
trump has basically called for gangs of white extremists to go to voting locations (to guard? To threaten? WTF?).
trump and his hounds have called for vote counting to stop immediately after the election (when this for obvious reasons has never been the case).
And he’s threatened if the counting doesn’t stop that he and his lawyers will step in.
And yet people don’t see the writing on the wall.
trump will either declare himself the winner on election night. Or he’ll dispute the outcome immediatly if it is not in his favour.
Either way, it’s gonna end in violence on the streets of the USA.
@no1marauder saidWhat about the Harrison - Graham SC Senate seat? Any predictions there? RealClear Politics shows it as a toss-up.
I won't be around until the results start coming in, so as a public service I'll provide this link which shows when polls close in all the States, what order they'll be counting mail-ins and early voting v. election day votes and how and in what direction that might skew early results: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/
I predicted a long tim ...[text shortened]... body else have fun with your own predictions; I'll be on tomorrow as I usually am on Election Night.
@suzianne saidSeveral Rep.-held Senate seats are up for (re-)election. Those will be critical to Trump's remaining in power, should he be returned to the OO.
What about the Harrison - Graham SC Senate seat? Any predictions there? RealClear Politics shows it as a toss-up.
Senate races to watch:
https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2020-54504585
Four scenarios for the election:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-54782625
And my scenario no. 5: Trump stays in office, but loses the Senate majority. Trump then becomes the first and last president to be impeached twice, and the second time he strikes out!
@gareth-cobb saidHe still won’t give us a gracious acceptance speech. Win or lose he doesn’t have a gracious bone in his body.
How about you if he wins? 😉
@shavixmir saidEither way, it’s gonna end in violence on the streets of the USA.
trump and his cronies have been trying their best to disallow votes and voting for various groups for months.
They held rallies during a pandemic.
They’ve terrorized campaign busses.
trump has basically called for gangs of white extremists to go to voting locations (to guard? To threaten? WTF?).
trump and his hounds have called for vote counting to stop immediat ...[text shortened]... tly if it is not in his favour.
Either way, it’s gonna end in violence on the streets of the USA.
That's just the problem, Shav -- it won't end in violence. America is so polarised these days, that the violence is likely to continue, whatever the result. It's Caligula-on-steroids who's fanning the flames. He doesn't see America and doesn't want to make America great (again). He sees only red vs. blue, he sees Dem.-controlled states and cities as anarchist-enemies and takes punitive action against their governors and mayors. He was never a president for America as a whole nation; he was divisive from the git go.
@suzianne saidI think Graham hangs on (unfortunately).
What about the Harrison - Graham SC Senate seat? Any predictions there? RealClear Politics shows it as a toss-up.
@no1marauder saidI still think that it's going to be Trump, and possibly by more than last time. It sounds crazy, but I sense a sea change in global politics that the polls aren't capturing. I don't believe that a Biden victory is consistent with the direction of the world.
I won't be around until the results start coming in, so as a public service I'll provide this link which shows when polls close in all the States, what order they'll be counting mail-ins and early voting v. election day votes and how and in what direction that might skew early results: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/
I predicted a long tim ...[text shortened]... body else have fun with your own predictions; I'll be on tomorrow as I usually am on Election Night.
I think now is an appropriate moment to raise the issue of our wager. I haven't thought of an appropriate charity yet (although I might not have to).
I wish good luck to all Americans who have not yet voted. It's important to remember that whatever the outcome, the sky will not fall in. If I didn't have a deadline tomorrow or weren't graduating in a few weeks, I would entertain the idea of staying up to watch the results, but the time difference is a real killer.