@eladar saidAnd some fear that if you admit to some unknown pollster that you are for Trump,
My wife, who supports Trump the NRA and pro life has a theory why Trump does not poll accurately. She says that people like her will not respond to pollsters. She does not like them and just hangs up on them.
you get doxed by the democrat activist pollster. you're screwed.
There is that, too.
@earl-of-trumps saidThere is zero evidence that Republicans and/or conservatives are underrepresented in polling samples.
And some fear that if you admit to some unknown pollster that you are for Trump,
you get doxed by the democrat activist pollster. you're screwed.
There is that, too.
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@no1marauder saidWell, hot damn, man. They were way off again this cycle. Worse than 2016.
There is zero evidence that Republicans and/or conservatives are underrepresented in polling samples.
Can you answer why polling numbers are off from reality like that?
We're just kicking things around to try and figure out why
@earl-of-trumps saidI'm not sure the polls were that far off in the aggregate in the Presidential race this year. Maybe in Florida, where the Republicans also were underestimated in 2018, a year when polling was by and large quite accurate.
Well, hot damn, man. They were way off again this cycle. Worse than 2016.
Can you answer why polling numbers are off from reality like that?
We're just kicking things around to try and figure out why
It will be interesting to check the exit polls to see how late deciders went.
The post that was quoted here has been removedExit polls this year incorporated measures to reach mail in and early voters:
"CNN's exit polls this year incorporate in-person interviews at early voting locations and telephone interviews to target by-mail voters. Those surveys are in addition to the in-person interviews with voters on Tuesday."
https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/04/politics/exit-polls-2020-update/index.html
@athousandyoung saidBiden's shaved about half a million off Trump's lead in PA since 6 AM.
Looks like Suzianne saved the day by defeating Dood and flipping AZ for the Dems. Unless Biden gets Penn it looks like he will be at exactly 270 and flipping AZ tipped the balance.
I suspect he'll pull ahead to stay in the state sometime tomorrow afternoon.
@earl-of-trumps saidIt's been reported that some Trump supporters were either hanging up on pollsters, or saying they supported Biden to "mess with the system."
Well, hot damn, man. They were way off again this cycle. Worse than 2016.
Can you answer why polling numbers are off from reality like that?
We're just kicking things around to try and figure out why
The more paranoid or victimized the mindset, the less likely you are to give a frank answer to a cold call.
@spruce112358 saidGiven that campaigns focus their efforts on tight states there would be an advantage for the opposition in skewing the data one way or another and Trumps base are committed and active if the rallies and online activity are anything to go by.
It's been reported that some Trump supporters were either hanging up on pollsters, or saying they supported Biden to "mess with the system."
The more paranoid or victimized the mindset, the less likely you are to give a frank answer to a cold call.
Campaigns are perhaps lured into taking certain states for granted whilst at the same time focusing resources on states unnecessarily or where it’s actually an exercise in futility.