1. Republicans do better in off-year elections than in Presidential races
2. Republicans have generally done badly in the off-elections since 2020.
THEREFORE,
Donald Trump will almost certainly lose the 2024 election.

Polls notwithstanding, we've seen this argument trotted out again and again in the media, and even on this forum.

Certainly, not long ago, it was axiomatic that Republicans did better in off year elections. The reason was simple. Republicans did better in the part of the electorate that was more well off and more white. And well-off white people vote in off-year elections more so than other groups.

However, are things changing?

Nate Silver seems to think so.

Democrats are doing much better than they ever did amongst the affluent white communities, while minority groups, which still Dem-leaning on the whole, have broken away from the Democratic party.

The reason is simple. When minority rights and economic policy were the flashpoint issues, Dems did better amongst minorities. Minorities, however, are not heavily invested in social leftism. Even if minority interests and economic policies are still as differentiated between the parties as they once were, those issues are not what gets the most press. The press covers social leftism issues (to keep the thread adult-level if possible, I'm not going to list them), while minority communities are often socially moderate or even conservative.

We might be living in a new world where it's Democrats who overperform in off-year elections and Republicans who do better in Presidential ones.

https://www.natesilver.net/p/democrats-are-hemorrhaging-support?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1198116

@sh76 said
1. Republicans do better in off-year elections than in Presidential races
2. Republicans have generally done badly in the off-elections since 2020.
THEREFORE,
Donald Trump will almost certainly lose the 2024 election.

Polls notwithstanding, we've seen this argument trotted out again and again in the media, and even on this forum.

Certainly, not long ago, it was axiomati ...[text shortened]... tesilver.net/p/democrats-are-hemorrhaging-support?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1198116

@kevcvs57
Rest easy, you dependents. The government is being fahioned to your life-styles as I speak, you will certainly own it in '28. It will be, if you have properly amassed the assets of others, enough to live on for some time. Some, on this very thread, will have found a find a place in this new society and take it for all that it is worth.
I worry, though, that the art supplies that I ordered this morning will no longer be delivered by Amazon on the same day that I order them. Downer. Well, we will have to setle for a little give and take. Give for some folks, take for others.

@AverageJoe1
So what country will you move to when Biden wins again? I assume you won't consider Hari Kari.

@kevcvs57 said
Don’t all non incumbent parties do well in off year elections I’m sure that was a pattern because people have had two whole years to form a dislike of the president, plus people like their checks and balances.
The difference now is the polarisation of the country and the disappearance of the conservative Republican Party and its replacement by a radical MAGA movement

@sonhouse said
@AverageJoe1
So what country will you move to when Biden wins again? I assume you won't consider Hari Kari.

@sh76 said
1. Republicans do better in off-year elections than in Presidential races
2. Republicans have generally done badly in the off-elections since 2020.
THEREFORE,
Donald Trump will almost certainly lose the 2024 election.

Polls notwithstanding, we've seen this argument trotted out again and again in the media, and even on this forum.

Certainly, not long ago, it was axiomati ...[text shortened]... tesilver.net/p/democrats-are-hemorrhaging-support?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1198116

@sh76 said
1. Republicans do better in off-year elections than in Presidential races
2. Republicans have generally done badly in the off-elections since 2020.
THEREFORE,
Donald Trump will almost certainly lose the 2024 election.

Polls notwithstanding, we've seen this argument trotted out again and again in the media, and even on this forum.

Certainly, not long ago, it was axiomati ...[text shortened]... tesilver.net/p/democrats-are-hemorrhaging-support?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1198116

@mott-the-hoople said
silver had cliton with 86% chance of winning of 2016

@suzianne said
There's no accounting for stupid.

You've heard that before, right?

It's the massive numbers of stupid people that Trump attracted with his simplistic way of viewing the world. Who knew he would become the poster boy for all of America's stupid people?

Clinton should have won, but there's no accounting for stupid.

@averagejoe1 said
Sue. Candidate A is running, and proposes that successful citizens would have to give a lot of their wealth to people who have had the same opportunities but squandered their wealth.
Candidate B is running and believes in self reliance and is against requiring the successful responsible citizens among us to be punished for their success by giving over their sa ...[text shortened]... hey do not even know.
I know which you would vote for, but may I ask you to state it here?

@shavixmir said
Again a stupid question.
It’s not about people squandering their chances, it’s that some people don’t have chances in the first place.

@shavixmir said
Again a stupid question.
It’s not about people squandering their chances, it’s that some people don’t have chances in the first place.

@djj said
Don't you know America is the land of opportunity?

@averagejoe1 said
So you vote to spread the wealth of the successful.
What if a person is like Shav, who elects voluntarily to not work very much. At the end of the day he has much less money than does the guy who works a lot, the person I referred to above as the wealthy.
Should the ‘wealthy’ guy give some of his money to Shav? He could actually live next-door to Shav.
I certainly hope that I am appreciated for my simple straight to the point questions.