The Racial Electoral Realignment?

@sh76 said
Those things may also be true, but that Republicans do better in low-turnout elections has was practically a political race horse truism for 20 years prior to the recent past.

Not disagreeing, suppressing the turnout is their only hope with trump on the ticket.
I think Biden managing to thread the needle between placating the young an minority voters and the pro Israeli majority in the dems on the Gaza issue might be the crux of the election in November
October the 7th was a bonus ball for Netanyahu, Putin and Trump. I’m not a conspiracy theorist but these timing issues have turned history many times

@shavixmir said
Dude. You can’t use me as a comparison to you, your like, the average joe or even what is neccesary.

What I am saying is that not everybody starts equal. And what is needed is two-fold:
- education
- help to start off on an equal setting

So, to counter-act your equity fears, it’s not about equilisation of outcome, but of start.

Happy?

Yes happy. We are all born and placed in a basinett, and go our separate ways. We all start equally. Some, maybe you and certainly me, start from scratch, borrowed education money, eyes set high, and make good choices. I never thought about trying to work less hours, maybe someone else did. At end of the day, one guy may be ahead of another buy, and life goes on.
Given that simple scenario, please apply what you are talking about to all the people who end up in different situations. Please?

@AverageJoe1
I am trying to get the Crux of Shav posts. I will say that a guy decides to be a barber, a commendable profession, satisfying to him but an average income. And one that does not grow beyond typical inflation. In effect a haircut cost simply keeps up with the CPI Index.
His neighbor chose another course in life, utilizing his creativity and resources to work his way (up the ladder) from one job/profession to another.
Shav seems to find some imperfection, if you will, of a society where the complacent barber has quite a lesser net worth than does the neighbor. Both nice guys, good friends. The neighbor is going to put a pool in his backyard. Not the barber.
So I want Shav to explain the logic of his discontent, and how he can rationalize some change in their relationship which 'evens things out'.........if you will.

@averagejoe1 said
Sue. Candidate A is running, and proposes that successful citizens would have to give a lot of their wealth to people who have had the same opportunities but squandered their wealth.
Candidate B is running and believes in self reliance and is against requiring the successful responsible citizens among us to be punished for their success by giving over their sa ...[text shortened]... hey do not even know.
I know which you would vote for, but may I ask you to state it here?

You assume that Trump gives one hot damn for America.

ALL he cares about is himself.

If that means lying his ass off, so be it.

@mott-the-hoople said
silver had cliton with 86% chance of winning of 2016

Actually, on the day of the election, he pegged Trump's chances at about 31%; down from about 35% a couple of days earlier before pollsters started herding. It was the NY Times that had Clinton at 85%. HuffPo had her ay 98%.

Silver was more bullish on Trump's chances than any other mainstream poll analyst.

@zahlanzi said
oh geezus, nate silver again


a magic 8 ball would be easier to read and just as accurate.


My magic 8 ball says you will soon post that you don't actually agree with him and you just posted this

Hock the 8 ball. It sucks.

I agree with Silver.

@kevcvs57 said
Not disagreeing, suppressing the turnout is their only hope with trump on the ticket.
I think Biden managing to thread the needle between placating the young an minority voters and the pro Israeli majority in the dems on the Gaza issue might be the crux of the election in November
October the 7th was a bonus ball for Netanyahu, Putin and Trump. I’m not a conspiracy theorist but these timing issues have turned history many times

I don't think Oct 7 was a big enough issue to swing the election unless it was super-close anyway. If a few Muslims from Dearborn staying home is enough to swing Michigan to Trump, Biden was in trouble anyway.

Anyway, aside from Muslims, I don't think most young voters really give a damn about Gaza anyway. Marching on campus against white colonialism is all good fun, but they don't really give a damn about the starving Gazans any more than they give a damn about the starving Haitians (does anyone even know that crisis is occurring?).

The election is about whether the Biden negatives of his age, inflation and immigration are enough to overcome the Trump negatives of being Trump.

I still think Biden is going to win ultimately because Trump is just too toxic, but I'm not as confident as I was 2 months ago.

@sh76 said
I don't think Oct 7 was a big enough issue to swing the election unless it was super-close anyway. If a few Muslims from Dearborn staying home is enough to swing Michigan to Trump, Biden was in trouble anyway.

Anyway, aside from Muslims, I don't think most young voters really give a damn about Gaza anyway. Marching on campus against white colonialism is all good fun, but they ...[text shortened]... g to win ultimately because Trump is just too toxic, but I'm not as confident as I was 2 months ago.

I stopped being confidant about electorates after Brexit here in the UK. Hearts are more likely to turn out for elections than heads.
I’m not confident about Biden winning, too many variables like migration concerns, Gaza, at least suppressing the young and minority votes that he counts on, I don’t think inflation and the economy will be bd enough in November to make a difference.
As you say Trump is Biden’s only hope and by his own words he gets more toxic everyday.

@kevcvs57 said
I stopped being confidant about electorates after Brexit here in the UK. Hearts are more likely to turn out for elections than heads.
I’m not confident about Biden winning, too many variables like migration concerns, Gaza, at least suppressing the young and minority votes that he counts on, I don’t think inflation and the economy will be bd enough in November to make a difference.
As you say Trump is Biden’s only hope and by his own words he gets more toxic everyday.

I don't agree about inflation. Even if inflation comes down between now and November, people aren't just going to forget that their dollar buys half of what it did in 2020.

Yes, it's partially Trump's fault too, but the incumbent President always eats the blame for economic woes and Biden certainly deserves his fair share of the blame for the runaway inflation of 2021 and 2022.

The first stimulus in March of 2020 was necessary to stave off a covid depression. Everything after that was political pandering.

@sh76 said
I don't agree about inflation. Even if inflation comes down between now and November, people aren't just going to forget that their dollar buys half of what it did in 2020.

Yes, it's partially Trump's fault too, but the incumbent President always eats the blame for economic woes and Biden certainly deserves his fair share of the blame for the runaway inflation of 2021 and 202 ...[text shortened]... f 2020 was necessary to stave off a covid depression. Everything after that was political pandering.

I don’t like a financial stimulus as in ( quantitative easing ) printing money to support the banking system but one that is targeted at infrastructure and manufacturing at home can’t really go wrong because at the end of the day a modern economy must have a reliable and functional infrastructure to operate and it generates jobs that can only be done by tax paying Americans

@suzianne said
You assume that Trump gives one hot damn for America.

ALL he cares about is himself.

If that means lying his ass off, so be it.

This is the post from me that Sue is responding to, or, has a semblance of responding. Sounds like it comes fromSHouse. She mentions Trump, but my premise made no reference which would necessitate writing about Trump? Go figure.
So, we all still await your response.

My Post from somewhere above:

"Sue. Candidate A is running, and proposes that successful citizens would have to give a lot of their wealth to people who have had the same opportunities but squandered their wealth.
Candidate B is running and believes in self reliance and is against requiring the successful responsible citizens among us to be punished for their success by giving over their savings to other people, people that they do not even know.
I know which you would vote for, but may I ask you to state it here?"

@kevcvs57 said
I don’t like a financial stimulus as in ( quantitative easing ) printing money to support the banking system but one that is targeted at infrastructure and manufacturing at home can’t really go wrong because at the end of the day a modern economy must have a reliable and functional infrastructure to operate and it generates jobs that can only be done by tax paying Americans

Of course it can go wrong.

Infrastructure spending is fine in principle, but when you don't bring in the money to pay for it, deficits explode, and when you're not pulling it out of the economy in taxes at (roughly) the same rate that you're bringing it in, runaway inflation is inevitable eventually.

If you want to spend on infrastructure, fine. But then you need to slash the budget somewhere else, figure out a way to bring in that money from somewhere that doesn't cripple the economy, or a combination thereof.

Hey, I'm a Keynesian. I am fully in favor of some level of deficit spending or loosening the money supply in a crisis or recession, but to do it just because "infrastructure is good" must lead ultimately to disaster.

@sh76 said
Of course it can go wrong.

Infrastructure spending is fine in principle, but when you don't bring in the money to pay for it, deficits explode, and when you're not pulling it out of the economy in taxes at (roughly) the same rate that you're bringing it in, runaway inflation is inevitable eventually.

If you want to spend on infrastructure, fine. But then you need to slash ...[text shortened]... s or recession, but to do it just because "infrastructure is good" must lead ultimately to disaster.

Well Keynesian economics says it pays for itself in the end result and pump priming has its critics but it’s a better way of getting an economy moving that giving billionaires even more money.
FDR pulled the USA out of the gutter using those principles and it was ready to come out of wwwII as the only real super power apart from the heavily centralised and low growth Stalinist USSR

@djj said
Don't you know America is the land of opportunity?

Absolutely, if you're white, or male (bonus for both), and rich.

@kevcvs57 said
Well Keynesian economics says it pays for itself in the end result and pump priming has its critics but it’s a better way of getting an economy moving that giving billionaires even more money.
FDR pulled the USA out of the gutter using those principles and it was ready to come out of wwwII as the only real super power apart from the heavily centralised and low growth Stalinist USSR

I'm not sure it's clear whether the New Deal shortened or lengthened the Great Depression, but even assuming the New Deal was the perfect thing to do at the time, it was such because of the Depression. Even FDR would never have proposed his package other than to fight the Depression.