I was reading about oil reserves and came across estimates of oil effectively running out in maximum 57 years. Obviously, there will still be oil, but it will be incredibly difficult, expensive and terrible for the environment to get.
Further guesstimates however, state that with new technology, we might have oil for another 100 years instead of 57.
Let’s be super optimistic and assume we will have enough oil for the next 200 years. By magic or something.
How will humanity look after that? Our entire economy is effectively built around oil. What will happen when oil does run out? Are we making enough preparations for when that time comes, or - since we’ll all be dead by then, ironically in time turning into oil - do we not care?
@Great-King-Rat saidThere is nothing to worry about ...somewhere between 50 and 100 years from now, the whole world will be run by the sun. From Claude AI
I was reading about oil reserves and came across estimates of oil effectively running out in maximum 57 years. Obviously, there will still be oil, but it will be incredibly difficult, expensive and terrible for the environment to get.
Further guesstimates however, state that with new technology, we might have oil for another 100 years instead of 57.
Let’s be supe ...[text shortened]... e comes, or - since we’ll all be dead by then, ironically in time turning into oil - do we not care?
*********************************
Over the next 50 to 100 years, several revolutionary advancements in solar technology could completely replace oil and fossil fuels by overcoming the current limits of weather, night, and energy storage.
Space-Based Solar Power (SBSP)
• The Concept: Collecting sunlight in space via orbiting satellites where the sun shines 24/7 without clouds, atmosphere, or night interference.
• How it works: Ultra-lightweight solar arrays in geostationary orbit capture unfiltered solar radiation and beam the energy wirelessly down to Earth using safe, focused microwaves or laser beams.
• Why it replaces fossil fuels: It delivers continuous, base-load power globally, eliminating the intermittency problem of terrestrial solar.
Advanced Artificial Photosynthesis
• The Concept: Mimicking and vastly improving natural plant photosynthesis using synthetic "artificial leaves".
• How it works: Semiconductor materials absorb sunlight to directly split water and combine captured carbon dioxide into storable, carbon-neutral liquid fuels (like hydrogen, methane, or butanol).
• Why it replaces fossil fuels: It bypasses the need for large battery grids by converting solar energy straight into drop-in chemical replacements for gasoline, jet fuel, and plastics.
Ultra-Efficient Perovskite & Multi-Junction Tandem Cells
• The Concept: Stacking multiple specialized crystal layers to capture nearly the entire light spectrum rather than just a single slice.
• How it works: Future manufacturing will push photovoltaic efficiencies past 45%–50% (well above today's silicon limits) while using ultra-thin, flexible coatings applied to everyday surfaces, vehicles, and windows.
• Why it replaces fossil fuels: It turns almost every man-made structure into an active power generator, drastically reducing the required land footprint and cost.
Next-Gen Molecular and Solid-State Energy Storage
• The Concept: Storing solar electricity at a massive scale over weeks or months.
• How it works: Advanced closed-loop thermal systems, ultra-dense solid-state batteries, and large-scale iron-air or redox flow batteries will store excess summer or daytime solar power with zero degradation.
Why it replaces fossil fuels: It ensures 100% reliability for entire continental power
1 edit
@Rajk999 saidBut current foolish governments won't spend a dime doing anything about it until then.
There is nothing to worry about ...somewhere between 50 and 100 years from now, the whole world will be run by the sun. From Claude AI
*********************************
Over the next 50 to 100 years, several revolutionary advancements in solar technology could completely replace oil and fossil fuels by overcoming the current limits of weather, night, and energy storage. ...[text shortened]... gradation.
Why it replaces fossil fuels: It ensures 100% reliability for entire continental power
In the meantime, humanity will go feral and kill each other off.
Same if the fresh water runs out.
@Great-King-Rat saidThe thing is, the time of reckoning will come well before the oil in the ground "runs out." New sources of oil are harder to get at, poorer in quality, and therefore will be much more expensive on the consumer end. Meanwhile renewable energy sources are getting more efficient, cheaper, and can be stored at scale in batteries.
I was reading about oil reserves and came across estimates of oil effectively running out in maximum 57 years. Obviously, there will still be oil, but it will be incredibly difficult, expensive and terrible for the environment to get.
Further guesstimates however, state that with new technology, we might have oil for another 100 years instead of 57.
Let’s be supe ...[text shortened]... e comes, or - since we’ll all be dead by then, ironically in time turning into oil - do we not care?
Oil is the past, not the future. Coal is even further in the past. So naturally MAGA needs to "own the libs" (the welfare of the nation be damned) by doubling down on fossil fuels while China and other nations vault into the future with new technologies and solutions.
The "comeuppance" for the US that you predict in other thread is coming up, all right. The US is flaming out in one last, brilliant burst of paleolithic chest-thumping: hurting, killing, alienating, exploiting, polluting, and bloviating. But then it will be over, the world's geopolitical machinery will have fully realigned around China, the EU, India, and other powers, and Uncle Sam will wane to become a second-rate player on the sidelines of history. Frankly I see the US fracturing into at least two pieces within a generation or two, if not two years from now.
- Joined
- 20 Oct 06
- Moves
- 10916
@Rajk999 saidI think that's unrealistic given the enormous new requirements for power that AI algorithms need projected forward. In this analysis, just one of the massive data centers being built will need the equivalent power of 345,000 households, with a solar footprint of 55,000 acres of land. Maybe solar gets more efficient, and gets thrown in space, but if AI is allowed to continue to proliferate, this will massively increase energy requirements for mankind in the future.
There is nothing to worry about ...somewhere between 50 and 100 years from now, the whole world will be run by the sun. From Claude AI
*********************************
Over the next 50 to 100 years, several revolutionary advancements in solar technology could completely replace oil and fossil fuels by overcoming the current limits of weather, night, and energy storage. ...[text shortened]... gradation.
Why it replaces fossil fuels: It ensures 100% reliability for entire continental power
https://singularityhub.com/2025/07/28/anthropic-says-ai-needs-a-whole-lot-more-power-stat/
- Joined
- 20 Oct 06
- Moves
- 10916
@Suzianne saidAI is eating the fresh water and spitting out garbage.
But current foolish governments won't spend a dime doing anything about it until then.
In the meantime, humanity will go feral and kill each other off.
Same if the fresh water runs out.
When the oil runs out, we will enter the "grey goo hypothesis" scenario.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gray_goo
@wildgrass saidThrough history and in every aspect of human development and progress there were naysayers and doomsday prophets. Thankfully these fell by the wayside were ignored. Here are some of your buddies from the history books... per Claude AI :
I think that's unrealistic given the enormous new requirements for power that AI algorithms need projected forward. In this analysis, just one of the massive data centers being built will need the equivalent power of 345,000 households, with a solar footprint of 55,000 acres of land. Maybe solar gets more efficient, and gets thrown in space, but if AI is allowed to continue ...[text shortened]... uture.
https://singularityhub.com/2025/07/28/anthropic-says-ai-needs-a-whole-lot-more-power-stat/
***************************
Cars
• Automobiles were dismissed as noisy, dangerous novelties that would never replace horses; the Michigan Savings Bank reportedly advised Henry Ford's lawyer against investing, calling the horse "here to stay" and the automobile "a novelty, a fad." (Widely repeated, but I couldn't verify it to primary sourcing — treat with caution.)
• Early automobile speed limits in places like England's 1865 "Red Flag Act" required a person to walk in front of any motor vehicle waving a flag, capping speed near 4 mph — a real, well-documented legal response rooted in fear of the technology.
Computers
• Thomas Watson (IBM) is widely quoted as saying in 1943, "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers" — this one has decent documentation, though some historians dispute the exact wording and context.
• Ken Olson, founder of Digital Equipment Corp, said in 1977: "There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home" — reasonably well-documented, from a speech to the World Future Society.
• A 1957 Prentice Hall business-books editor reportedly said data processing was "a fad that won't last out the year."
• The Duell "everything that can be invented has been invented" (1899, US Patent Office) quote is a documented fabrication — it originated as satire in a comedy magazine, and Duell's actual congressional testimony argued the opposite.
Telephones
• The often-cited 1876 Western Union internal memo calling the telephone valueless with "too many shortcomings" has been investigated by technology historians and found to be unverifiable/likely fabricated, despite being one of the most repeated "doomsayer" quotes in existence.
Medicine
• Ignaz Semmelweis was ridiculed and eventually institutionalized by the medical establishment in the 1840s-60s for proposing that doctors wash their hands to prevent childbed fever — a genuinely well-documented and tragic case of correct science being rejected.
• Anesthesia (ether, 1840s) faced real religious and medical objections — some clergy argued pain in childbirth was divinely ordained and shouldn't be interfered with.
• Vaccination faced organized opposition from its origins with Edward Jenner's smallpox work in the 1790s through anti-vaccination leagues in the 1800s.
Airplanes
• Well-documented: astronomer Simon Newcomb published serious arguments in 1901 that heavier-than-air flight was scientifically implausible — just two years before the Wright brothers flew.
• The Wright brothers reportedly struggled for years to get press or government interest even after demonstrated flights, since it seemed implausible.
Later tech: radio, TV, mobile phones
• David Sarnoff's associates reportedly dismissed radio investment in the 1920s as having "no imaginable commercial value," asking "who would pay for a message sent to nobody in particular?"
• The head of Warner Bros. allegedly asked in 1927, "Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?" regarding sound film — this is another one debunked as partly apocryphal/out of context by researchers.
• Mobile phones were widely mocked as an oversized, impractical luxury item in the 1980s-90s ("who needs to be reachable everywhere"😉 before smartphones became near-universal within about 20 years of the first iPhone.
AI (contemporary, ongoing)
Skepticism today runs in both directions rather than a single "doomsayer" pattern: some dismiss AI capability as overhyped and due to plateau, while others (a different camp) warn of existential/civilizational risk — these are different claims worth not conflating, and unlike the historical examples above, we don't yet have the benefit of hindsight to know which concerns will look prescient versus overblown.
**********************************
- Joined
- 20 Oct 06
- Moves
- 10916
1 edit
@Rajk999 saidThose doomsday scenarios were not necessarily wrong, those scenarios were real in some cases and largely mitigated with regulation and laws as well as cultural adaptation.
Through history and in every aspect of human development and progress there were naysayers and doomsday prophets. Thankfully these fell by the wayside were ignored. Here are some of your buddies from the history books... per Claude AI :
***************************
Cars
• Automobiles were dismissed as noisy, dangerous novelties that would never replace horses; the Mich ...[text shortened]... ght to know which concerns will look prescient versus overblown.
**********************************
For cars, we did implement speed limits, traffic signals and laws, noise restrictions, emergency brakes, emissions standards, seat belt laws, etc. Those things exist because changes were made in response to real problems. You should be thanking people for noticing the harms and fixing them, rather than dismissing them as doomsday prophets.
For the chatbots and AI, I really hope those changes happen soon. Halt all new data center construction unless they are generating their own power and cleaning up their water. Eliminate AI from school classrooms. Block AI from hacking into personal data and issue severe penalties for violations. Block AI from government surveillance. I also hope we learn as a society not to treat AI as a replacement for human thinking, as gospel (as you are doing here), but instead as a tool to help people address bias and be more logical.
- Joined
- 03 Sep 26
- Moves
- 58
Allow me to educate you people.
The world hasn't even scratched the surface when it comes to oil and essential critical resources.
Some oil is held back by lack of development or the government, like in Canada for example.
Other oil is held back by price and other oil is held back by environmental concerns or protest.
The world is covered by water at around 70 percent. Most of our resources come from the 30 percent land coverage.
Just imagine the resources under the ocean floor that haven't even been touched yet. Offshore oil exists in small amounts but imagine deep ocean mining and oil extraction.
I wouldn't worry about running out of oil for the next one thousand years. Long before then, new tech will replace fossil fuel energy.
Like how solar is becoming big. The problem with solar is Silver.
Silver has tripled in cost over the last year or so but that brings us to the ocean floor mining again.
You can literally pick up rocks from the ocean floor that have critical resources in them. That's how rich the ocean floor is and mining will bring in much more.
The problem is tech and cost.
We aren't running out of anything at the moment.
We just need to understand that extraction won't be concerned about your protest or environmental concerns.
A stroke of a pen can change any law.
When you go to the beach you relax and enjoy your time.
When I go to the beach I see wasted opportunities for a desalination plant, waste water disposal systems, strategic mining infrastructure, biohazard waste burial grounds deep under the ocean, etc.
I'll stop before I get ranting and raving about it.
You people have been educated.
@Nemesis saidGood post for wildgrass and his doomsday buddies.
Allow me to educate you people.
The world hasn't even scratched the surface when it comes to oil and essential critical resources.
Some oil is held back by lack of development or the government, like in Canada for example.
Other oil is held back by price and other oil is held back by environmental concerns or protest.
The world is covered by water at around 70 perce ...[text shortened]... ocean, etc.
I'll stop before I get ranting and raving about it.
You people have been educated.
@wildgrass saidRubbish. The world progresses in spite of people like you and not because of.
Those doomsday scenarios were not necessarily wrong, those scenarios were real in some cases and largely mitigated with regulation and laws as well as cultural adaptation.
For cars, we did implement speed limits, traffic signals and laws, noise restrictions, emergency brakes, emissions standards, seat belt laws, etc. Those things exist because changes were made in respon ...[text shortened]... spel (as you are doing here), but instead as a tool to help people address bias and be more logical.
- Joined
- 20 Oct 06
- Moves
- 10916
@Nemesis saidI agree that it is possible to turn the country of Canada into a giant oil field, but you realize this conjures a dystopian future, right? Develop all land and natural resources and we are left with a global hellscape. No more beaches because you built a desalination plant.
Allow me to educate you people.
The world hasn't even scratched the surface when it comes to oil and essential critical resources.
Some oil is held back by lack of development or the government, like in Canada for example.
Other oil is held back by price and other oil is held back by environmental concerns or protest.
The world is covered by water at around 70 perce ...[text shortened]... ocean, etc.
I'll stop before I get ranting and raving about it.
You people have been educated.
There must be a better way than to dredge up the oceans for oil to fuel the chatbots?
- Joined
- 20 Oct 06
- Moves
- 10916
@Rajk999 saidAre you imagining a non-doomsday version of a planet that is stripped of all natural resources because we needed to extract the oil?
Good post for wildgrass and his doomsday buddies.
"Oh hey man, let's go for a hike this weekend in the Canadian woods."
"Sorry mate. Can't do that. They stripped mined the forest for oil and silver to feed the hungry chatbots so instead we're stuck inside staring at our TikTok videos that are all AI-generated but we can't tell the difference and good thing too because we're all dumb and lost our critical thinking skills when our teachers stuck iPads and phones in our faces during school."
Yeah!