@humysaid Are you implying it probably was C19?
If not, you make no point and everything I said there is exactly correct.
All I said was that nobody can rule it out and someone challenged that. That person made no point. I stand by my statement. You cannot rule it out, that is my point.
Which is irrelevant because I never claimed the contrary.
Few things can be completely rules out but they can be shown to be unlikely.
You make no point.
@humysaid Which is irrelevant because I never claimed the contrary.
Few things can be completely rules out but they can be shown to be unlikely.
You make no point.
I already made my point. You simply forgot what it was and imagined something else.
@humysaid Since the epidemic was noticed in China first, it would seem that the most rational default assumption for one to make is that it probably started in China first until if or when one has good evidence or is given good reason to think otherwise, such as a confirmed case of it outside of China before it was noticed in China etc.
I would not rule out the possibility of the existe ...[text shortened]... s anyone here think I am in some way wrong for doing that and, if so, can they explain to me why so?
From the link below:
"In a strongly worded tweet, written in English on his verified Twitter account, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said it was the United States that lacked transparency.
“When did patient zero begin in US? How many people are infected? What are the names of the hospitals? It might be US army who brought the epidemic to Wuhan. Be transparent! Make public your data! US owe us an explanation!” Zhao wrote. "
Did my government make the data public and explain when did patient zero begin in US as he demanded? Perhaps you should find out before jumping to conclusions.
"In a strongly worded tweet, written in English on his verified Twitter account, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said it was the United States that lacked transparency.
“When did patient zero begin in US? How many people are infected? What are the names of the hospitals? It might be US army who brought the epidemic to Wuhan. Be tr ...[text shortened]... patient zero begin in US as he demanded? Perhaps you should find out before jumping to conclusions.
I said in that post;
"Since the epidemic was noticed in China first, it would seem that the most rational default assumption for one to make is that it probably started in China first until if or when one has good evidence or is given good reason to think otherwise, such as a confirmed case of it outside of China before it was noticed in China etc. "
and you STILL haven't given good evidence or is given good reason to think otherwise so you make no point.
"lacked transparency" doesn't imply "it was probably specifically C19".
A wild unproven baseless conspiracy theory also isn't good evidence or good reason.
You haven't shown my above asserted reasoning of what is probably so to be flawed. My above asserted reasoning of what is probably so still stands.
Try again.
"Since the epidemic was noticed in China first, it would seem that the most rational default assumption for one to make is that it probably started in China first until if or when one has good evidence or is given good reason to think otherwise, such as a confirmed case of it outside of China before it was noticed in China etc. "
and you STILL haven't ...[text shortened]... obably so to be flawed. My above asserted reasoning of what is probably so still stands.
Try again.
Noticed and started are two different things. Why no answers to his questions? Is my government unwilling to make the data public? Why? Is it a secret?
@metal-brainsaid Is my government unwilling to make the data public?
I wouldn't know. Unless that moron Trump has something to do with it, I cannot think of any credible reason why they should be unwilling to make the data public nor how they can shut up all the many doctors and medical experts and all the press to keep it secret; I don't see how that's doable as it would be extremely difficult in a country with democracy and free press to hide a suspiciously large cluster and number of deaths. That's two of the main problems for most of these wild conspiracy theories; no plausible motive nor plausible feasible way of stopping someone blowing the whistle.
Your point?
Is it a secret?
Although I cannot know for sure, I have yet to see any evidence that its a secret so at least for now my default assumption should be there is probably no secret there. But lets say its a secret; OK; HOW did they keep secret huge numbers of extra and earlier deaths that would have occurred in the US if it had started earlier there? And exactly by WHO? and exactly WHY? -exactly what is your theory here? Why should we assume this is probably what happened if you cannot even answer these basic questions of HOW and by WHO and WHY? Our default assumption should be given it was first noticed in China it probably started in China until if or when we are given a good reason to think it probably didn't. So far you have yet to give us any good reason to think it probably didn't.
@humysaid I wouldn't know. Unless that moron Trump has something to do with it, I cannot think of any credible reason why they should be unwilling to make the data public nor how they can shut up all the many doctors and medical experts and all the press to keep it secret; I don't see how that's doable as it would be extremely difficult in a country with democracy and free press to hide a ...[text shortened]... hink it probably didn't. So far you have yet to give us any good reason to think it probably didn't.
Keep it secret? People may have thought it was the flu. The symptoms are similar. Without tests how would you know? What part of no tests were available do you not understand? Mostly old people die. That is what happens with the flu.
Until you know the death toll attributed to the flu this season you do not know. If it is unusually high it may be an indication of SARS2 blamed on the flu.
The 1918 Spanish flu came there from France and the Spanish called it the French Flu. Where is was first noticed means nothing.
@metal-brainsaid Keep it secret? People may have thought it was the flu. The symptoms are similar. Without tests how would you know?
How would you know it probably wasn't flu?
How would you know it probably was specifically C19?
Why specifically C19 and not, say, SARS? Or any one of the many other dangerous viruses that give flu-like symptoms?
You still haven't answered any of my questions nor shown any evidence that it probably was C19 thus your theory is baseless and my (and our) default assumption should rationally be it probably wasn't C19.
If it looked exactly like flu to the doctors and they saw no evidence to the contrary then it probably was just flu.
@humysaid How would you know it probably wasn't flu?
How would you know it probably was specifically C19?
Why specifically C19 and not, say, SARS? Or any one of the many other dangerous viruses that give flu-like symptoms?
You still haven't answered any of my questions nor shown any evidence that it probably was C19 thus your theory is baseless and my (and our) default assumption shou ...[text shortened]... ly was just flu.
Keep it secret?
You were the one that clearly implied it, not me.
How did the Chinese know it was not the flu? Maybe they thought that it was the flu at first, or SARS since China is where SARS was a problem. How did China know it was not SARS and a different kind of SARS? Did it have anything to do with testing? Other nations may have never suspected a SARS outbreak that never happened there before. They would have blamed the flu. Why would the USA suspect a new type of SARS virus? We never had a SARS1 outbreak.
@metal-brainsaid How did the Chinese know it was not the flu?
They tested it and it wasn't flu. Do you now say it probably was flu? If so, how do you explain how according to tests its now C19?
You have not proven anything.
and I never claimed 'proof' but rather good reasons to think C19 probably didn't start in the US due to the complete absence of evidence that it probably did. -your new straw man?
You have yet to explain why C19 probably DID start in the US; A wild unproven conspiracy theory unsupported by the evidence isn't valid evidence of why it probably happened.
Sadly, I don't believe most governments, including the US and UK governments, will learn or take heed of any of those lessons any time soon. They don't adapt their strategies or try to think more radically. This is sadly just part of their mentality. So we can expect them to let the next big epidemic get out of control when there are now known doable strategies for them to prevent that.
As someone once said;
Those that ignore history are doomed to repeat it.
(not those exact words but words of that effect)
Sadly, I don't believe most governments, including the US and UK governments, will learn or take heed of any of those lessons any time soon. They don't adapt their strategies or try to think more radically. ...[text shortened]... hose that ignore history are doomed to repeat it.
(not those exact words but words of that effect)
The Conservatives here cannot avoid having a public inquiry over this. They'll have little control over the scope of the inquiry, so the type of holistic changes you're thinking about may actually happen.
28 Mar '20 08:27
Panspermia & Corona
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