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  1. Joined
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    24 Mar '20 23:521 edit
    @wolfe63 said
    Yeah, yeah, yeah... it was the Bilderberg's or IMF or Italian Mafia or Falun Gong or Antifa or the Tri-Lateral Comission or the Council on Foreign Relations or any number of the "Secret Societies" like Skull and Bones, Freemasons or Illuminati.

    Crackpots have ready-made conspiracies to order these days.

    But: Don't get vaccinated; reduce the carbon footprint or drink unbottled water.
    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3076334/coronavirus-strange-pneumonia-seen-lombardy-november-leading?fbclid=IwAR2HE8apkFt1RX3C-QjKaeyHUeN7iyVvFxhsNHRyoxx8yNkHr205igcQRf8


    “If I were reincarnated I would wish to be returned to earth as a killer virus to lower human population levels.”

    ― Prince Philip
  2. Standard memberDeepThought
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    25 Mar '20 16:33
    @metal-brain said
    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3076334/coronavirus-strange-pneumonia-seen-lombardy-november-leading?fbclid=IwAR2HE8apkFt1RX3C-QjKaeyHUeN7iyVvFxhsNHRyoxx8yNkHr205igcQRf8


    “If I were reincarnated I would wish to be returned to earth as a killer virus to lower human population levels.”

    ― Prince Philip
    That article is chock full of speculation. It also does not contain the quotation you've attributed to Prince Phillip.
  3. Zugzwang
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    25 Mar '20 23:11
    @deepthought said
    That article is chock full of speculation. It also does not contain the quotation you've attributed to Prince Phillip.
    DeepThought replied to MetalBrain.

    "Italian doctors became aware of a “strange pneumonia” circulating in the Lombardy region in November.
    Coronavirus: ‘strange pneumonia’ seen in Lombardy in November, leading Italian doctor says.

    Virus was circulating ‘before we were aware of the outbreak in China’, says Giuseppe Remuzzi, director of the Mario Negri Institute for Pharmacological Research."

    I think it's premature to claim certainty of Covid-19's origins.
  4. Subscribersonhouse
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    26 Mar '20 04:50
    @Duchess64
    How could C19 get to Italy before the first cases were reported in China in December?
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    26 Mar '20 09:01
    @duchess64 said
    DeepThought replied to MetalBrain.

    "Italian doctors became aware of a “strange pneumonia” circulating in the Lombardy region in November.
    Coronavirus: ‘strange pneumonia’ seen in Lombardy in November, leading Italian doctor says.

    Virus was circulating ‘before we were aware of the outbreak in China’, says Giuseppe Remuzzi, director of the Mario Negri Institute for Pharmacological Research."

    I think it's premature to claim certainty of Covid-19's origins.
    We see what you did there.
  6. Standard memberDeepThought
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    26 Mar '20 14:291 edit
    @sonhouse said
    @Duchess64
    How could C19 get to Italy before the first cases were reported in China in December?
    There's a one to two week incubation period and most cases are either mild or asymptomatic. The Chinese had to recognize the presence of the Corona virus, a case is a person who has been diagnosed with the disease and it's entirely plausible that the disease had started spreading in Italy before the Chinese had registered that there was a problem.

    Edit: The first confirmed case in China presented on the 1st of December. There's a possible case from the 17th of November [1]. Given the level of globalisation the first infections in Italy can have been occurring early in December or late in November. I don't think the timing of the outbreak in Italy can be seen as evidence that the outbreak did not originate in Hubei.

    [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019-20_coronavirus_pandemic_in_mainland_China#Mysterious_pneumonia_outbreak
  7. Subscribersonhouse
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    26 Mar '20 14:57
    @DeepThought
    So you are saying it still originated In China and was in Italy before anyone, even the Chinese, knew what was going on?
  8. Standard memberDeepThought
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    26 Mar '20 15:26
    @sonhouse said
    @DeepThought
    So you are saying it still originated In China and was in Italy before anyone, even the Chinese, knew what was going on?
    The virus spreads like wild fire. One would have to explain why the epidemic was unnoticed in Italy while people were dying of it in China. It really is the most parsimonious explanation. I edited my last post, the addition's relevant here.
  9. Joined
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    26 Mar '20 15:377 edits
    Since the epidemic was noticed in China first, it would seem that the most rational default assumption for one to make is that it probably started in China first until if or when one has good evidence or is given good reason to think otherwise, such as a confirmed case of it outside of China before it was noticed in China etc.
    I would not rule out the possibility of the existence of such good evidence or is given good reason to think otherwise, but, so far I haven't personally seen any such good evidence or given any good reason to think otherwise so, until if or when that happens, I will continue to think it probably started in China.
    Does anyone here think I am in some way wrong for doing that and, if so, can they explain to me why so?
  10. Zugzwang
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    26 Mar '20 17:141 edit
    @sonhouse said
    @Duchess64
    How could C19 get to Italy before the first cases were reported in China in December?
    That's like asking how Harvey Weinstein could have
    raped any woman before any woman officially accused him of rape.

    The article claims that Italian doctors noticed an unusual
    kind of pneumonia in November 2019, but they did
    not recognize and report it as a new disease.
  11. Zugzwang
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    26 Mar '20 17:23
    @deepthought said
    There's a one to two week incubation period and most cases are either mild or asymptomatic. The Chinese had to recognize the presence of the Corona virus, a case is a person who has been diagnosed with the disease and it's entirely plausible that the disease had started spreading in Italy before the Chinese had registered that there was a problem.

    Edit: The first conf ...[text shortened]... //en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019-20_coronavirus_pandemic_in_mainland_China#Mysterious_pneumonia_outbreak
    I never claimed that the article disproves a Hubei origin.

    Did someone infected from Hubei travel to Italy in November 2019?
    We could look up airline records.

    I simply assert that a thorough investigation of
    chains of transmission has yet to be done.
    Covid19 still has many unknowns.
  12. Zugzwang
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    26 Mar '20 17:281 edit
    @humy said
    Since the epidemic was noticed in China first, it would seem that the most rational default assumption for one to make is that it probably started in China first until if or when one has good evidence or is given good reason to think otherwise, such as a confirmed case of it outside of China before it was noticed in China etc.
    I would not rule out the possibility of the existe ...[text shortened]... s anyone here think I am in some way wrong for doing that and, if so, can they explain to me why so?
    I concur that the best *default"* hypothesis now is a Hubei origin.

    "I think it's premature to claim *certainty* of Covid-19's origins."
    --Duchess64
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    27 Mar '20 00:28
    @humy said
    Since the epidemic was noticed in China first, it would seem that the most rational default assumption for one to make is that it probably started in China first until if or when one has good evidence or is given good reason to think otherwise, such as a confirmed case of it outside of China before it was noticed in China etc.
    I would not rule out the possibility of the existe ...[text shortened]... s anyone here think I am in some way wrong for doing that and, if so, can they explain to me why so?
    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/wuhan-seafood-market-may-not-be-source-novel-virus-spreading-globally?fbclid=IwAR2FQ-21Q6NMvhnWXl_o0iyJmKdfoe5_feLe-Gny7tTlfjQBJdZuubaGaWc

    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3076334/coronavirus-strange-pneumonia-seen-lombardy-november-leading?fbclid=IwAR2cOHHXx1orKgKHEl2jW4f8WMzDjOU837bSE7GWmlC4LnkyJsJxSTPEo48

    It is not clear where it started. It could have started here in the states last fall and the deaths were blamed on the flu. Here in Michigan the use of tests revealed lots of cases. I suspect the more testing that is done the more cases will be revealed.

    The big question is this:
    Was the virus already here for months and testing simply revealed an ongoing pandemic or was it a very fast spreading of the disease? I doubt it spread that fast. I think it was already here and people thought it was a bad chest cold or flu. The absence of tests made it impossible to detect last fall.

    Governments often suppress the existence of a deadly virus giving them problems. During the 1918 flu pandemic Spain was one of the few nations that didn't pretend it wasn't a problem. Perhaps my government knew it was a problem last fall and pretended it didn't exist until they exported it to claim it started elsewhere.
  14. Standard memberDeepThought
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    27 Mar '20 01:17
    @metal-brain said
    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/wuhan-seafood-market-may-not-be-source-novel-virus-spreading-globally?fbclid=IwAR2FQ-21Q6NMvhnWXl_o0iyJmKdfoe5_feLe-Gny7tTlfjQBJdZuubaGaWc

    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3076334/coronavirus-strange-pneumonia-seen-lombardy-november-leading?fbclid=IwAR2cOHHXx1orKgKHEl2jW4f8WMzDjOU837bSE7GWmlC4LnkyJsJxSTPEo48

    It ...[text shortened]... roblem last fall and pretended it didn't exist until they exported it to claim it started elsewhere.
    I know I'm going to regret asking this, but I'm going to anyway. Why would the US government wish to pretend that a disease originating in their country started in China?
  15. Joined
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    27 Mar '20 08:12
    @deepthought said
    I know I'm going to regret asking this, but I'm going to anyway. Why would the US government wish to pretend that a disease originating in their country started in China?
    https://www.fredericknewspost.com/news/health/fort-detrick-lab-shut-down-after-failed-safety-inspection-all/article_767f3459-59c2-510f-9067-bb215db4396d.html
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