Chance or by Design ?

Originally posted by boonon
Hi,

I would say by design.

I have been doing a little research lately on mathematical probabilities.

I am neither a mathematician nor a scientist so the numbers and concepts are a little hard for me to follow.

From what I have been studying the probability of a living cell to form by itself is next to zero.

I know that you are talking about stars and galaxies but I think they fit together with your question (chance/design).

Ok here is the thing.

If you were to take some complex arrangement of atoms in a molecule (like say DNA) and ask what are the
odds of a bunch of atoms randomly forming themselves into that pattern then you will get a probability of
1 in some stupidly large number.


However that is not how molecules (or DNA) forms.

Atoms don't just come together randomly.


If you take a mixture of atoms of different elements, stick them in a container, and add energy (heat) then they
will start to organise themselves.

As the atoms move around they will collide with and bond to other elements to form molecules.

Different types of atoms (elements) bond to other atoms more strongly than others and some pairings of elements
don't work as the atoms really don't like to bond with each other.

For example many elements bond strongly to oxygen.

And some elements don't like bonding at all.

So while these initially free atoms might start out by bonding to the first thing they hit, as they continue to whiz around
they will continue to have collisions and weak bonds will likely break and strong ones survive, so the elements will form
predictable molecules based on the elements that like to bond to each other.

Different levels of energy (heat/light/electricity) in different environments with different combinations of starter elements
will result in different types of molecules being formed.

Some chemical reactions happen preferentially on certain 'catalysts' which make those reactions easier and more likely.

Some molecules that form act as catalysts that make subsequent reactions more likely.


And some molecules actually actively build copies of themselves, they self replicate (in the right environment).


Now the formation of a successful self replicating molecule requires a fairly long string of events to happen in the right order.

However in the conditions likely to exist on the early earth there were the relevant chemicals coming together in trillions
of different ways every second over the entire planets surface for tens of millions of years.

And the earth is almost certainly only one of millions if not billions of potential locations life could form in in the universe.


So the question of the probability of life forming is thus not like the question of how likely are you to win the lottery.

But more like the question of how likely is it that someone will win the lottery.


The odds of someone winning the lottery are pretty good, which is why it happens most weeks.


Unlikely events are in fact not just likely to happen, they are inevitable.

This is the problem conspiracy theorists have.

They look at events like 9:11 and scrutinise the events of the day in huge detail and they spot coincidences and unexplained
and possibly inexplicable unlikely events and coincidences and then because they think that because those events and coincidences
are unlikely that they couldn't have happened by chance they see it as evidence of a conspiracy.

It's not. Unlikely events and coincidences happen all the time.

Originally posted by googlefudge
Ok here is the thing.

If you were to take some complex arrangement of atoms in a molecule (like say DNA) and ask what are the
odds of a bunch of atoms randomly forming themselves into that pattern then you will get a probability of
1 in some stupidly large number.


However that is not how molecules (or DNA) forms.

Atoms don't just come toge ...[text shortened]... ence of a conspiracy.

It's not. Unlikely events and coincidences happen all the time.

wow,

That is a lot to take in so I will re-read it again. Thanks

How did atoms form?

I just heard someone say the other day that atoms naturally want to 'divide' (Something like putting two north ends of a magnet together). They said that not only can man not figure out what holds them together (keeps them from dividing like they want to), but man himself can only split two 'unstable atoms'.

Is any of that true?

Thanks

Originally posted by boonon
wow,

That is a lot to take in so I will re-read it again. Thanks

How did atoms form?

I just heard someone say the other day that atoms naturally want to 'divide' (Something like putting two north ends of a magnet together). They said that not only can man not figure out what holds them together (keeps them from dividing like they want to), but man himself can only split two 'unstable atoms'.

Is any of that true?

Thanks

How did atoms form?

This would, of course, be changing the topic of conversation for he didn't say anything about how atoms themselves form but rather he spoke of how atoms form into molecules i.e. two or more atoms combine together to form molecules.

But if you want to know how atoms formed; mainly hydrogen was made in the big bang but other heavier types of atoms were made as a result of nuclear fusion in stars that turns lighter elements ( starting with hydrogen ) into heavier elements that then escape from exploding stars to then form nebulae, planets, etc and even form yet more stars.

Originally posted by boonon
Hi,

Thank you for the links, I will check them out.

I noticed you used the word 'inevitable' twice.

I'm not sure that I agree with what you are putting forth as 'inevitable', that is a very strong word to use.


I was listening to a Mathematician the other day and they said that it is generally accepted that anything with a probability of more t ...[text shortened]... s true?

I only pose this to you because you seem versed in math and science.

Thanks..

I was listening to a Mathematician the other day and they said that it is generally accepted that anything with a probability of more than 10 to the 12th power is considered mathematically impossible to occur. Is this true?

No.

Originally posted by RJHinds
[b]You write, "Nobody is suggesting that a modern cell just formed “by itself”.

Does that mean you believe there is intelligence behind its forming?

What about the first cell that was ever formed, that is, did it just form by itself? Or do you believe there was intelligence behind it? If not, how did it form and gain the ability to reproduce itself without intelligence behind it?[/b]

You write, "Nobody is suggesting that a modern cell just formed “by itself”.

Does that mean you believe there is intelligence behind its forming?

No.

I took the words “by itself” here in this context to imply the strawman argument that all the molecules just magically and miraculously combined together by pure random accident rather that as a result of the laws of chemistry/physics in the right conditions making the process inevitable.

What about the first cell that was ever formed, that is, did it just form by itself? Or do you believe there was intelligence behind it?

if what you mean by “just form by itself” is that all the molecules just magically and miraculously combined together by pure random accident rather that as a result of the laws of chemistry/physics in the right conditions; NEITHER.

Under the right natural conditions, protocells inevitably would form.

Originally posted by googlefudge
Ok here is the thing.

If you were to take some complex arrangement of atoms in a molecule (like say DNA) and ask what are the
odds of a bunch of atoms randomly forming themselves into that pattern then you will get a probability of
1 in some stupidly large number.


However that is not how molecules (or DNA) forms.

Atoms don't just come toge ...[text shortened]... ence of a conspiracy.

It's not. Unlikely events and coincidences happen all the time.

The molecules organize themselves in the manner god designed them to organize themselves. HalleluYah !!! Praise the Lord! 😏

Originally posted by RJHinds
The molecules organize themselves in the manner god designed them to organize themselves. HalleluYah !!! Praise the Lord! 😏

Well he did a piss poor job with humans then.

I could have done better.

Originally posted by humy

How did atoms form?

This would, of course, be changing the topic of conversation for he didn't say anything about how atoms themselves form but rather he spoke of how atoms form into molecules i.e. two or more atoms combine together to form molecules.

But if you want to know how atoms formed; mainly hydrogen was made in the big bang but ...[text shortened]... en escape from exploding stars to then form nebulae, planets, etc and even form yet more stars.

God formed them. HalleluYah !!! Praise the Lord! 😏

Originally posted by sonhouse
Well he did a piss poor job with humans then.

I could have done better.

You could not make one hair on your head. Ignoramus!

Originally posted by RJHinds
You could not make one hair on your head. Ignoramus!

You can't even understand the argument. If I had had the powers your so-called god allegedly has, I could have done LOT better. For instance, built in more compassion into humans, just for starters.

Originally posted by humy

You write, "Nobody is suggesting that a modern cell just formed “by itself”.

Does that mean you believe there is intelligence behind its forming?

No.

I took the words “by itself” here in this context to imply the strawman argument that all the molecules just magically and miraculously combined together by pure random accident rather ...[text shortened]... conditions; NEITHER.

Under the right natural conditions, protocells inevitably would form.

How do the right natural conditions come together without someone directing them? By chance? What is the probability of that happening by chance?

Originally posted by sonhouse
You can't even understand the argument. If I had had the powers your so-called god allegedly has, I could have done LOT better. For instance, built in more compassion into humans, just for starters.

It is a good thing you don't have the powers of God. God help us.

Originally posted by RJHinds
It is a good thing you don't have the powers of God. God help us.

Yeah, building in more compassion into humans would have been SO evil.

Originally posted by sonhouse
Yeah, building in more compassion into humans would have been SO evil.

I am pretty sure you would have screwed it up.

Originally posted by boonon
I was listening to a Mathematician the other day and they said that it is generally accepted that anything with a probability of more than 10 to the 12th power is considered mathematically impossible to occur. Is this true?

No, it is not true. Events with a probability that low occur all the time. There are more planets in the universe than 10 to the 12th power. There are more atoms in the sun than 10 to the 12th power. The universe is a big place.