Originally posted by DeepThought
I wondered about applying the same test to King Arthur. Whether there is any historical basis at all depends on which historian one asks. He fits with the god 'historicized' model JS357 mentioned earlier, but there is also disputed physical evidence.
You can apply a Bayesian analysis to any 'historical/mythical' figure to see whether the
evidence indicates that they really existed [in some form] or are entirely myth.
The methodology is, and should be, universally applicable.
The answer may often be that it's entirely inconclusive, and we can't make any strong
assertion either way. But the strength of the system is not that it guarantees decisive
answers, but that it defines the scope of what you can or cannot justifiably say.
It tells you how confident you should be about any given explanation for any given phenomena.
Sometimes the answer is that you shouldn't be confident, because there are things that we
[currently] don't and cannot know. This helps us tell what they are.
EDIT: It also provides a path to objectively arbitrating these disputes, which history as a subject
currently lacks. The process is completely transparent in that everyone can see all the
evidence being plugged into the equation, and everyone can agree on reasonable upper and/or
lower limits to the probability bias of each piece of evidence. And all can see all the evidence being
taken into account. And then the equation spits out the answer. There is no cherry picking evidence,
there is no accepting the arguments of the greatest authority... All the evidence goes in, and the
impartial equation tells you the result. If someone misses out some evidence in an analysis then
that is immediately apparent, and you can add it in to see what effect it has/had.