# Origin :) the numbers

KellyJay
Spirituality 10 Feb '19 02:16
1. 13 Feb '19 18:481 edit
@kellyjay said
Working out probabilities is a straight up math problem, it doesn’t have to be about the past, present, or future.

What we assume historically may or may not be true. It doesn’t have to be about how you figure it out your math, that could be spot on, yet based on bad assumptions. So not the same thing!

You can look up how they came up the figures it isn’t that difficult.
Are you telling me that molecules bonding are not effected by their environment?
2. KellyJay
13 Feb '19 19:32
@stellspalfie said
Are you telling me that molecules bonding are not effected by their environment?
No
3. 13 Feb '19 20:02
@kellyjay said
No
So its fair to say we would need to know what the environmental conditions were and when they formed to be able to accurately calculate the probability of them forming?
4. KellyJay
13 Feb '19 21:37
@stellspalfie said
So its fair to say we would need to know what the environmental conditions were and when they formed to be able to accurately calculate the probability of them forming?
If we don’t know all the variables then we are missing something.
5. KellyJay
14 Feb '19 00:09
@stellspalfie said
So its fair to say we would need to know what the environmental conditions were and when they formed to be able to accurately calculate the probability of them forming?
We also need to know what is required before we even concern ourselves with the possible good or bad environmental conditions.

6. KellyJay
14 Feb '19 00:20
@kellyjay said
If we don’t know all the variables then we are missing something.
Sorry if we don't know all the variables we don't know if we are missing something.
For that matter if there is something there hindering, or speeding things up, we just don't know.
7. 14 Feb '19 21:04
@kellyjay said
Sorry if we don't know all the variables we don't know if we are missing something.
For that matter if there is something there hindering, or speeding things up, we just don't know.
So you understand now that if we cannot model the correct conditions for weather a million years ago, we cannot model the conditions for organic molecules clumping together a billion years ago.

But of course you will not accept this, cue random tangent post.
8. wolfgang59
Quiz Master
14 Feb '19 21:20
@kellyjay said
A disruption in any generation from one life form into the next game over, start your calculations there and tell me the odds.
Yep.
Game over.

It is called extinction.

Many, many more species have gone extinct than live today.
9. Proper Knob
Cornovii
14 Feb '19 21:41
@kellyjay said
You don’t think I can pull up examples of human errors and bias changing outcomes?
It’s as if the point has just whooshed right over your head again. Whether it’s deliberate or you are completely oblivious I’m really not sure. But it will have to wait till tomorrow now.
10. KellyJay
14 Feb '19 21:41
@stellspalfie said
So you understand now that if we cannot model the correct conditions for weather a million years ago, we cannot model the conditions for organic molecules clumping together a billion years ago.

But of course you will not accept this, cue random tangent post.
The film removes all variables that could hinder success, then setup the perfect theoretical conditions for success to simulate the odds being overcome.

When I bemoan the theory of abiogenesis it is always due to things removed, they are the show stoppers conditions not suitable for life, lack of the necessary ingredients all being in the same place at the same time.

What did you not like about the film you thought was being disingenuous?
11. KellyJay
14 Feb '19 21:43
@proper-knob said
It’s as if the point has just whooshed right over your head again. Whether it’s deliberate or you are completely oblivious I’m really not sure. But it will have to wait till tomorrow now.
What do you make of the odds of a protein forming by chance, you disagree with the math?
12. Proper Knob
Cornovii
14 Feb '19 21:52
@KellyJay

I have no idea. I don’t really see what relevance that has to our discussion of your religious beliefs and the impact they have on mankind’s understanding of the universe and the planet we live on.
13. 14 Feb '19 22:461 edit
@kellyjay said
The film removes all variables that could hinder success, then setup the perfect theoretical conditions for success to simulate the odds being overcome.

When I bemoan the theory of abiogenesis it is always due to things removed, they are the show stoppers conditions not suitable for life, lack of the necessary ingredients all being in the same place at the same time.

What did you not like about the film you thought was being disingenuous?
And just to clarify the film makers know ALL the variables - correct?
14. KellyJay
15 Feb '19 00:43
@proper-knob said
@KellyJay

I have no idea. I don’t really see what relevance that has to our discussion of your religious beliefs and the impact they have on mankind’s understanding of the universe and the planet we live on.
What religious doctrine was in the either video that I displayed. This is purely about probabilities and numbers, you disagree with the likelihood based on anything you have seen, or how any of the variables were put together?

You have not answered my question about the variables, you going to?
15. KellyJay