MLB Predictions

Originally posted by shortcircuit
What part of what I said do you not understand moron?

I have no desire to allow you to wriggle off the hook and change the terms of your original statement. If your word is no good, then why should I believe you would pay off when you lost anyway.

I guess that makes you out to be a liar, because, as you say, the words don't lie and we all saw what you wrote.

I just offered a bet backing up my original statement. If you're too queer to back up YOUR statement i.e. the one asking for a wager, just admit it and crawl back under the nearest rock with the rest of the slime.

I've already made bets on this forum and paid up when I lost. Ask darvlay. If you're too much of a punk to wager when called out, you shouldn't run your suck in the first place.

Originally posted by no1marauder
A simple bet (so you can understand it):

IF Oswalt wins more than he loses against the Reds this season (W-L - no decisions don't count), you win.

IF he loses more than he wins against the Reds this season(W-L - no decisions don't count), I win.

IF he wins the same number as he loses against the Reds ...[text shortened]... don't count), it's a push.

Stakes: $25.

In or out, Mary?

I guess Mary is OUT.

Originally posted by no1marauder
A simple bet (so you can understand it):

IF Oswalt wins more than he loses against the Reds this season (W-L - no decisions don't count), you win.

IF he loses more than he wins against the Reds this season(W-L - no decisions don't count), I win.

IF he wins the same number as he loses against the Reds ...[text shortened]... don't count), it's a push.

Stakes: $25.

In or out, Mary?

I already know you are hard headed, but i gave you credit (too much it appears) for not being ignorant too.

I am not wagering based on what any other pitcher in an Astros uniform does. I am wagering ONLY on Roy Oswalt, and the fact that the Reds won't "own him" as your original post suggested.

I will type this out slowly because it is apparent your comprehension skills are in short supply.

Under your "simplified plan" that "backs up your original statement in your eyes" ain't squat. Follow this example and you will see why your offer is not matching your statement.

For arguement's sake, let's say Oswalt throws 6 games against the Reds,

Game 1 Oswalt throws a complete game and loses 1-0 on an unearned run. He only gives up 2 hits in the game. ( record is 0-1)

Game 2 Oswalt throws 7 innings of shutout ball, leaves the game with a 4-0 lead. The Astros bullpen coughs up 5 runs and the Astros lose the game (record is still 0-1)

Game 3 The Reds nick Oswalt fo 5 hits and one earned run. Roy pitches 8 strong innings. Valverde gets nicked for a run in the top of the 9th, Astros win it in the bottom of the 9th. (record is still 0-1)

Game 4 Oswalt hurls a perfect game for 8 innings. He pulls his groin in the 9th and is force to leave the game witha tenuous 2-0 lead and a man on first. Hawkins comes in and promptly serves up a 2 run dinger to Bruce and the score is tied. The Astros finally win it in 13 innings. (record is still 0-1)

Game 5 Oswalt is human. He finally gives up 2 earned runs on 5 hits in 8 innings of work, but leaves the game with the score tied so he gets no decision. (record is still 0-1)

Game 6 Oswalt pitches 6 shutout innings and leaves with a blister problem in a 0-0 game. (record ends up 0-1)

The guy game up 2 earned runs and a dozen or so hits in 6 games and 46 innings pitched. As a former pitcher myself with plenty of credibility to back up my statements, Oswalt dominated the Reds with a microscopic ERA of 0.39 and an average of .25 hits per inning allowed. But in your scenrio, he loses the bet because he lost one and the Astros blew all of his leads in the other games, and you believe that will show that the Reds dominated him.

Sorry, that dog won't hunt. If you want to back up your stement, then we deal only with Oswalt's pitching against the Reds. The score at the time of his exit from the game will stand. Let his pitching stats speak to the "domination" not the Astros inabilities, and there will be plenty of those I believe this year.

Pony yourself up to the bar Mary and bet what you originally said, not what you are trying to contrive. If you want to back this up, I will bet you as much as you want to put on the line, up to $100,000.00.
As a sign of exceptional faith, if you do sack up and take this bet backing up what you originally said, then i will also agree to take your hybrid bet that you are trying to pawn off as the true measure. And, because I am a sporting man, I will take that bet at the same level of value that you wager in the bet above.

Your move Nancy!!

Originally posted by shortcircuit
I already know you are hard headed, but i gave you credit (too much it appears) for not being ignorant too.

I am not wagering based on what any other pitcher in an Astros uniform does. I am wagering ONLY on Roy Oswalt, and the fact that the Reds won't "own him" as your original post suggested.

I will type this out slowly because it is apparent you ...[text shortened]... t at the same level of value that you wager in the bet above.

Your move Nancy!!

So, on your new wager if Oswalt leaves behind, that's a LOSS even if the Astros win? And that means the moment he leaves; you'd get no credit for any runs the Astros might get after he's pinch hitted for. But also if Oswalt left with the bases loaded and no one out and ahead 4-3 you'd get a WIN even though the chances of at least one run scoring is overwhelming. Your purposed wager hardly sounds logical to me.

If you knew anything about baseball, you'd know the scenario you constructed has never occurred for any pitcher in the history of baseball. Why you are so afraid of such an implausible event, I'm not sure; shouldn't you also worry that Oswalt might get hit by a meteor after giving up 1 run in the first inning of his first game with the Reds?

Since for some reason you don't think whether a pitcher wins the game is important, how about something simpler; the Reds will average more than 4 runs per innings against Oswalt. That's all on him, not any other pitcher. Of course, inherited runners count.

Originally posted by no1marauder
So, on your new wager if Oswalt leaves behind, that's a LOSS even if the Astros win? And that means the moment he leaves; you'd get no credit for any runs the Astros might get after he's pinch hitted for. But also if Oswalt left with the bases loaded and no one out and ahead 4-3 you'd get a WIN even though the chances of at least one run scoring is overw ...[text shortened]... t Oswalt. That's all on him, not any other pitcher. Of course, inherited runners count.

You see, I do know about baseball. It is you that doesn't understand all of the nuances of the game. You like to manipulate everything to your terms. If you are seriously so thick that you cannot see that I am saying, I have faith in Oswalt but not the bullpen. You seem vapor-locked on wins. Wins don't determine the best pitchers necessarily. Nolan Ryan got screwed out of the Cy Young award when he was clearly the best pitcher in the league, but Houston couldn't score for him and he won only 10 or 11 games. Then there have been pitchers who had gaudy win totals but did not pitch very well. There success was due to tremendous offensive production when he pitched. He would give up 6 earned runs but his team would score 8 to get him a win.

You are correct, in my scenario, I have separated Roy Oswalt's performance (which is the topic of the wager) from the games' actual outcome (because the winner of the game is not relevant to your charge). It is doable and I am amenable because if will prove that you are as full of crap as a christmas turkey once again. Furthermore, I believe I said I would take credit for Oswalt's baserunners when he was removed from the game. So the win isn't mine until his pitching line is completed.

I am not sure I understand what your counter-proposal means. Are you saying the Reds will post a 4.00 ERA on Oswalt for the season?

Originally posted by shortcircuit
You see, I do know about baseball. It is you that doesn't understand all of the nuances of the game. You like to manipulate everything to your terms. If you are seriously so thick that you cannot see that I am saying, I have faith in Oswalt but not the bullpen. You seem vapor-locked on wins. Wins don't determine the best pitchers necessarily. Nolan Ryan ...[text shortened]... er-proposal means. Are you saying the Reds will post a 4.00 ERA on Oswalt for the season?

My counter proposal includes unearned runs. It would be computed just like ERA but include all runs allowed. We both know that ERA is a flawed stat and pitchers can get lit up but because of one error the stats might give him a decent ERA.

When I said the Reds would "light up" Oswalt, I meant they would hit him hard. That's kind of a subjective statement; making it into an objective wager is a little difficult. We've both seen games where pitchers got hit hard, but their team bailed them out with great defensive plays. We've also seen games where the reverse was true; where a pitcher was victimized by poor fielding. So no matter what the wager is, it's possible that the result will be inequitable.

A wager was your idea. I'm not adverse to one, but so far none that you have proposed primarily measures Oswalt's pitching performance. You make a good argument against using wins and losses but your proposed wager still relies on the Astros' offensive performance i.e. Oswalt could pitch the same 6 inning game and give up 2 runs, but you'd lose if the Astros scored 1 in those six and win if they scored 4.

So my final proposal is based exclusively on Oswalt's performance. If he gives up more than 4 runs per 9 innings against the Reds, they've successfully hit against him no matter how many runs the Astros do or don't score and no matter what the Astro bullpen does or doesn't do. If he holds them to less than 4 runs per 9 innings, then he's held them regardless of what the offense or bullpen does.

So that's my proposal. $25 on it. In or out?

Originally posted by no1marauder
My counter proposal includes unearned runs. It would be computed just like ERA but include all runs allowed. We both know that ERA is a flawed stat and pitchers can get lit up but because of one error the stats might give him a decent ERA.

When I said the Reds would "light up" Oswalt, I meant they would hit him hard. That's kind of a subje nse or bullpen does.

So that's my proposal. $25 on it. In or out?

I've got $50 that says you don't have $25.
Any takers? 😛

Originally posted by no1marauder
My counter proposal includes unearned runs. It would be computed just like ERA but include all runs allowed. We both know that ERA is a flawed stat and pitchers can get lit up but because of one error the stats might give him a decent ERA.

When I said the Reds would "light up" Oswalt, I meant they would hit him hard. That's kind of a subje ...[text shortened]... nse or bullpen does.

So that's my proposal. $25 on it. In or out?

You are mad!! ERA is not now, nor never has been a flawed stat. You have now shown your ignorance on the topic once again. I guess you also believe that WHIP is flawed as well?

Unearned runs are not the fault of the pitcher, except in one rare occurance...that the error that caused the unearned run was on the pitcher.

If ERA is flawed, why the hell do you think that the brain trust of the game continue to base salaries and award on the statistic?

Give me a break!! Go back to scoring Little League games where all that matters is runs scored.

I know it's a week late but

AL East: Boston is tops with the Rays suffering a slight slump (85-90 wins) and falling short of the playoffs
AL West: No one can challenge the Angels
AL Central: Twins, but thats my hometown bias as much as anything else.

NL West: Like the AL not a lot of competition here, I expect the Dodgers to win but I have no great feelings about any of the teams.
NL East: The Metz are chokers and I expect Philly to win again
NL Central: St. Louis easily wins the division while the Cubs see how foolhardy their offseason moves were and the the Brewers are a good but not great team.

Boys, boys, baseball is a TEAM sport. When one wagers as to whether or not a pitcher like Oswalt will win a particular game, one is also beating on how:
1. The catcher calls the game
2. Defense behind the pitcher in the game
3. Run support for that particular pitcher.
4. When the manager yanks him during the game, if at all, when his stuff starts to go south.

In effect, divorcing yourselves from the "team" aspect of the wager seems propostorous to me. In short, place the wager regarding the whole game or call the whole thing off!!

Originally posted by whodey
Boys, boys, baseball is a TEAM sport. When one wagers as to whether or not a pitcher like Oswalt will win a particular game, one is also beating on how:
1. The catcher calls the game
2. Defense behind the pitcher in the game
3. Run support for that particular pitcher.
4. When the manager yanks him during the game, if at all, when his stuff starts to go s ...[text shortened]... orous to me. In short, place the wager regarding the whole game or call the whole thing off!!

I agree with you, fellow Red fan. SC's lame attempt to pretend that pitching performance can somehow be separated from the rest of the game is quite absurd.

I'm done bending over backwards to try to get a fair wager out of him. I repeat my original statement: the Reds will OWN Oswalt this year.

Originally posted by shortcircuit
You are mad!! ERA is not now, nor never has been a flawed stat. You have now shown your ignorance on the topic once again. I guess you also believe that WHIP is flawed as well?

Unearned runs are not the fault of the pitcher, except in one rare occurance...that the error that caused the unearned run was on the pitcher.

If ERA is flawed, why the hel ...[text shortened]...
Give me a break!! Go back to scoring Little League games where all that matters is runs scored.

Funny, the highest paid pitchers are the ones who win the most games, not who have the lowest ERAs. Although you think otherwise, that is the most important stat.

I hate to tell you this, but it's not just in Little League games where all that matters is runs scored. Last I checked, that particular stat decides whether every game is won or lost.

Originally posted by darvlay
Alright, it's early - let's see how wrong the lot of us can be this year!

American League

AL East - NY Yankees over the Bosox by a squeak. NY's investment in starting pitching pays off. Tampa will suffer a sophomore slump and finish just over .500.

AL Central - THE KC ROYALS by default. Besides the power on the Detroit team, this division ...[text shortened]... ild Card - NY Mets

[b]World Series
Philadelphia Phillies over LA Angels in 7 games.[/b]

Minnesota again will only be adequate??? They tied for first last years with numerous first place division tiltles this decade. Canucks know nothing about baseball.

Originally posted by no1marauder
I agree with you, fellow Red fan. SC's lame attempt to pretend that pitching performance can somehow be separated from the rest of the game is quite absurd.

I'm done bending over backwards to try to get a fair wager out of him. I repeat my original statement: the Reds will OWN Oswalt this year.

I repeat my original statement that you are full of crap and it will be proven once again.

Originally posted by no1marauder
Funny, the highest paid pitchers are the ones who win the most games, not who have the lowest ERAs. Although you think otherwise, that is the most important stat.

I hate to tell you this, but it's not just in Little League games where all that matters is runs scored. Last I checked, that particular stat decides whether every game is won or lost.

What??? you are a rube. That statement is without any merit.

You obviously never played the game and you know nothing about the system. In an economy where overzealous owners frequently overpay for mediocre talent both offensively and in the pitching department it is a very well known fact among the "knowledgeable" baseball community that it is 10 times easier to find good hitting than it is to find good pitching. The expansion of baseball has made this even worse because the quality of pitching has been on the decline for years because the average has been pulled down by the multitude of mediocre pitchers in baseball. This problem is further worsened by the AL utilizing the DH which further erodes the ERA in the AL. The DH will allow teams to keep their starters in the games longer, but it also drives their ERA up in the process. So, you will see more wins with a higher ERA in the AL.

In the NL, the story is slightly different. Because pitching moves are predicated by pinch hitting opportunities to score runs at key situations, you find pitchers not getting as many innings, and possibly fewer wins, but their ERA's generally tend to be lower than in the AL.

Now, when you elect to factor salary structure into the equation, you have to also consider, 1) what was the quantity of available pitching at the time of the long term contract; 2) what was the injury history of the particular pitcher; 3) what is the durability of the particular pitcher and do they possess the ability to throw a lot of innings; 4) how many earned runs do they give up on average in a game; and 5) does the pitcher carry any excess baggage in their personal life which may impact their abilities in the future.

This is how they make their decisions in the big leagues. The amount of money and the duration of the long term deals depend on the ecomomy of the team trying to sign the player. NO ONE, repeat NO ONE, was stupid enough to throw out the two contracts that the Yankees did last off season for Sabbathia and Burnett. Both of those contracts will bite them in the ass before it is done. But the Yankees are a financial juggernaut that no one can match so they buy who they want to and hope they pan out.

If Roy Oswalt and Jake Peavy had been on the market this past offseason, their salaries would have dwarfed Sabbathia's and Burnetts.