Originally posted by DawgHausI would give myself and David Tebb less chance, and more to Korch. I would give Franz007at the same chance as David Tebb or maybe one percent less, if any. And I would give Cludi the same chance as English Tal, because they are both very deep thinkers and strategical players which counts a lot in the long run. Cludi has more chance than Maris61 in my eyes, for certain and I don't have a clue about Gatecrasher, but if I really had to I wouldn't put him so much below David Tebb, either.
Odds of winning the 2007 championship, calculated at the beginning of round 2.
22%2285EveRyDay
14%2226David Tebb
10%2172franz007at
9%2270Korch
9%2153English Tal
8%2236Gatecrasher
7%2170maris61
6%2174cludi
6%2168tigerking
6%2156CypherOz
1%2095DawgHaus
1%2086Salin i Vitalik
1%2061sastorey
Note that this is totally blished on the Internet, it's extremely unlikely that anyone will have any alternate opinions.
Originally posted by EveRyDayProbably a much more accurate prediction (though Maris61 has really shown me how to play chess)
I would give myself and David Tebb less chance, and more to Korch. I would give Franz007at the same chance as David Tebb or maybe one percent less, if any. And I would give Cludi the same chance as English Tal, because they are both very deep thinkers and strategical players which counts a lot in the long run. Cludi has more chance than Maris61 in my eyes, about Gatecrasher, but if I really had to I wouldn't put him so much below David Tebb, either.
17% - Korch
15% - EveRyDay
13% - Gatecrasher
13% - David Tebb
12% - Franz007at
10% - English Tal
10% - Cludi
10% - Someone Else
Only a sketch. Probably could say something more precise if I took more than two minutes. 🙂 But it really is lottery. It's like in poke. When there's more than two players are 'in the pot' you have a better chance to win with a small pair, simply because the ratios of chances are different. It really cannot be said. I think the chance for someone else is less than 10%, but I will leave it to that - odd things might happen in a round robin. Just check out some of Kasparov's later competitions. He drew a lot against the weaker players but he won the competitions by beating his main rivals.
Originally posted by ItsYouThatIAdoreMy bet's on Korch or EveryDay, with Tebb a close third. It depends on how much time Everyday burns, as he seems to go on vacation pretty often. If you take him out of the mix, it's a tossup between Tebb and Korch, IMO.
Wow, games are starting to finish like crazy now...look at group 2, some very interesting games, good for some of the lower rated players following the tourney to look in too...anyone changing their predictions yet on who is going to win the tourney?
I think Everyday is the strongest player in the tourney, but there is so much potential for an upset with the level of talent involved. I think I might put up a good performance in my group hopefully. So far i am 0 wins 1 loss 2 draws, but i have a forsure victory against Caissad...and some strong games going against other players, i just need to finish out my games strong.
I agree with those saying that EveRyDay, David Tebb, and Korch are the strongest three players in the tourney. Of these, Korch will have the toughest time qualifying as his section (4) is stronger than most of the others.
The original hardest section (section 3) has been weakened somewhat by the banning of CypherOz. But no clear frontrunner has emerged.
Section 2 is much further along than most. But aside from ED's and DT's sections they're all tossups.
Originally posted by ItsYouThatIAdoreYeah, I've won my first game in round 2 too. Bet it'll be my only one though.... :'(
I agree, its a big toss up in most sections still, its going to be real fun to watch the rest of the games unfold, i just officially won my first game in the tourney round, so im off to a decent start 1 - 1 - 2