Originally posted by DoctorScribbles
The more I look into this, the more I am becoming convinced that this is a myth.
According to www.bishop-accountability.org, there were over 4000 priests accused of molestation in the last 50 years.
There are 400,000 priests worldwide, says http://www.worldpriestday.com/
We thus have an incidence rate of 1% of priests being at least accused ...[text shortened]... lation rate of .2%.
From what statistics do you derive your finding of commensurate averages?
According to www.bishop-accountability.org, there were over 4000 priests accused of molestation in the last 50 years.
Could you provide a specific page link? According to the NY Times study published on the same site [1], that number is closer to 1200.
There are 400,000 priests worldwide
We should be looking specifically at the US. There are about 45,000 priests in the US, of whom 30,000 are diocesan priests [2].
We thus have an incidence rate of 1% of priests being at least accused of molestation, assuming priests remain priests for roughly 50 years.
Using the methodology you've employed and the NY Times figure, that's 2.7%.
However, there is a flaw with your method. The numerator has all priests accused of abuse in the past 50 years
regardless of whether they are serving today or not (or even whether they are still alive!) whereas the denominator only contains [active][3] priests today.
To calculate a correct incidence rate, you need to consider
all priests who served during the period. I'll try to do this using some simplistic assumptions:
1. All priests are active from ordination to death.
2. The average period between ordination and death is 50 years.
3. The number of priests has been constant over the 50 years in question.[4]
It should be easy to see that the estimate of the number of individual priests for the period is 90,000.
So, the correct incidence rate would be 1.3%. The upper limit proposed by Philip Jenkins in
Pedophiles and Priests [5] was 2% [6].
The U.S. Department of Justice states that there are between 250,000 and 500,000 pedophiles in the States... The U.S. population is about 295,000,000. This gives an incidence rate of .2%, a fifth of the rate among priests.
One issue can be identified right away - does this refer to pedophiles (i.e. people with sexual attraction to prepubescent children) or child sexual offenders (including postpubescent minors)? If the former, then the figure is very similar for Catholic priests (refer Jenkins' study mentioned above).
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[1] http://www.bishop-accountability.org/resources/resource-files/timeline/2003-01-12-NYT-PortraitOfAccused.htm
The NY Times covered the period 1952-2002.
[2] Bureau of Labor Statistics:
http://www.bls.gov/oco/ocos063.htm
[3] Not sure if the OCD lists retired priests or priests who have been removed from public office or defrocked.
[4] In fact, the number of priests in the US has declined over the decades:
http://www.beliefnet.com/story/164/story_16491_1.html
[5] http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0195145976?v=glance
[6] For instance:
http://www.catholicity.com/commentary/hudson/tenmyths.html