28 Apr '11 13:22>
rec'd.
Originally posted by KailenDepends on the number of reasonable options for each move, and the length of the game of course.
Compare the moves actually made against an engine - for example I have already had one game where virtually every one of my opponent's moves was the same as Fritz 11. That makes it pretty clear I was playing an engine.
I am not sure the probabilities but I think I read once that if you have around 60% (?) of moves the same as a computer engine first preference then it is pretty strong evidence.
Originally posted by Kailencan someone help me work out how you get a percentage.
Compare the moves actually made against an engine - for example I have already had one game where virtually every one of my opponent's moves was the same as Fritz 11. That makes it pretty clear I was playing an engine.
I am not sure the probabilities but I think I read once that if you have around 60% (?) of moves the same as a computer engine first preference then it is pretty strong evidence.
Originally posted by MontyMoosethankyou so much, now sorry to sound so dumb, but then again maybe its true, how
matches with the computer / total moves x 100 = % match with computer
14 matches in 20 moves:
14/20 = .7 x 100 = 70% match rate
2 matches in 20 moves:
2/20 = .1 x 100 = 10 % match rate
Originally posted by HabeascorpBlack's first-choice matchup rate for last 10 moves was 100% with Houdini 1.5a at 20 sec per move.
I am curious now. game ID6219092 if anyone feels like telling me the match up?
Originally posted by robbie carrobieIn this case, it would be:
thankyou so much, now sorry to sound so dumb, but then again maybe its true, how
would this work for different engine choices, from the top three, for example, say
there was 15 overall engine matches out of a possible 20 non data base moves, 10 of
them were the first choice, 4 of them the second choice and 1 of them the third choice.
Originally posted by robbie carrobiefirst you discard all database moves, then analyse the rest for top 3 matchup against any decent engine. repeat that for a bunch of games (against strong opponents), tally up the results, compare to fischer's results. then ponder whether it's possible or not for an amateur to consistently outplay fischer.
can someone help me work out how you get a percentage.
Originally posted by wormwoodHappy to see database / opening moves excluded from the match-up percentage, but shouldn't forced moves (and forcing moves) also be excluded? Unless I am horribly mistaken I imagine most sequences of forced moves (on both sides) would be near to 100% match-up with any engine. In my opinion it is the eyebrow raising "what-the-?" moves that show evidence of engine use, rather than a sequence of forced moves or the checkmate move.
first you discard all database moves, then analyse the rest for top 3 matchup against any decent engine. repeat that for a bunch of games (against strong opponents), tally up the results, compare to fischer's results. then ponder whether it's possible or not for an amateur to consistently outplay fischer.
that's it in a nutshell.
Originally posted by andrew93The method is a crude method that I think is capable of identifying blatant cheaters, but no more than that. If someone is obtaining significantly high matchups over a big enough sample, then I do regard that as being very suspicious.
I simply fear the risk of a false positive being issued against someone that isn't cheating.
Originally posted by andrew93Happy to see database / opening moves excluded from the match-up percentage, but shouldn't forced moves (and forcing moves) also be excluded?
Originally posted by andrew93that's all been done. to death, I might add. some of the issues you bring up (as dozens or hundreds have before) are non issues, most are testable with control groups (the current masters differ from old ones much less than you'd think, statistically), and the math you can always crunch through yourself when in doubt.
Happy to see database / opening moves excluded from the match-up percentage, but shouldn't forced moves (and forcing moves) also be excluded? Unless I am horribly mistaken I imagine most sequences of forced moves (on both sides) would be near to 100% match-up with any engine. In my opinion it is the eyebrow raising "what-the-?" moves that show evidence of ...[text shortened]... ng these sorts of things in posts causes me some mild concern.
Just my 2c
Andrew