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Debates Forum

  1. Standard member sh76
    Civis Americanus Sum
    05 Nov '12 21:02
    Last chance I suppose.

    My prediction:

    Romney takes FL, VA, CO, NC

    Obama takes NH, WI, PA, OH, NV, IA

    EC total: Obama 281 Romney 257

    Popular vote: Obama + 1.5%
  2. Subscriber no1marauder
    It's Nice to Be Nice
    05 Nov '12 21:12
    Originally posted by sh76
    Last chance I suppose.

    My prediction:

    Romney takes FL, VA, CO, NC

    Obama takes NH, WI, PA, OH, NV, IA

    EC total: Obama 281 Romney 257

    Popular vote: Obama + 1.5%
    Colorado went bigger for Democrats than expected in 2008 and 2010; there is an article with the thesis that that is because there is a fair amount of Spanish speaking Hispanics who tend Democrat there and in Nevada (which had similar disparities) who are underrepresented in the polls. So I think Obama wins there. I think he squeaks out Virginia which seems to be moving his way.

    I'll go out on a limb and predict Romney wins Iowa where he has some positive movement (probably from evangelicals) and where Obama under-performed by almost 6 points comparing the 2008 results to the RCP average.

    I figure that as Obama 297 Romney 241.

    Obama wins the popular by right around 1%.
  3. Donation rwingett
    Ming the Merciless
    05 Nov '12 21:40 / 1 edit
    Johnson Toribiong will top the 5,000 vote mark to retain the presidency of Palau, +3.4% over Tommy Remengesau.
  4. Subscriber invigorate
    Only 1 F in Uckfield
    05 Nov '12 21:48
    Originally posted by sh76
    Last chance I suppose.

    My prediction:

    Romney takes FL, VA, CO, NC

    Obama takes NH, WI, PA, OH, NV, IA

    EC total: Obama 281 Romney 257

    Popular vote: Obama + 1.5%
    WI - the Ryan factor could take 10 to Romney - still Obama but only just.
    However Obama will win CO too!

    Have a play with your predictions here:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-19794259
  5. 05 Nov '12 21:54
    286 Obama, 252 Romney. To enhance my chances of being correct, I'll not list the states.
  6. Standard member sh76
    Civis Americanus Sum
    05 Nov '12 22:09
    Originally posted by KazetNagorra
    286 Obama, 252 Romney. To enhance my chances of being correct, I'll not list the states.
    286 happens to be a number that doesn't seem to apply to any remotely likely combination scenario. 287 is much more likely.
  7. Standard member vivify
    rain
    05 Nov '12 22:13
    This could seriously go either way. While I felt somewhat sure that Obama would beat McCain, I can't call this one.
  8. 05 Nov '12 22:14
    Originally posted by sh76
    Last chance I suppose.

    My prediction:

    Romney takes FL, VA, CO, NC

    Obama takes NH, WI, PA, OH, NV, IA

    EC total: Obama 281 Romney 257

    Popular vote: Obama + 1.5%
    I agree with everything you listed, except that I think Obama will take Virginia and maybe lose New Hampshire.

    Senate Predictions – close races only:

    Nevada – Dean Heller (R) wins

    New Mex – Martin Heinrich (D) wins

    Montana – really close to call, but Tester (D) has been inches ahead for months and the voters like him. Calling it for him.

    North Dakota – Berg (R) wins. Heitcamp has run a spirited campaign, but I just don’t see ND sending a Democrat this time around no matter what the polls say.

    Wisconsin – Tommy Thompson (R) wins. Tammy Baldwin gave it a good try, but Wisconsin loves Thompson. I could be misreading this one big time however, as a friend in Wisconsin almost convinced me.

    Missouri – McCaskill (D), despite all the late secret money Republicans have dumped into the state in a desperate attempt to save Akin.

    Indiana – Donnelly (D). Mourdock’s stupid rape comment turned it around permanently.

    Ohio – Brown (D) seems to have it under control in the latest polls.

    Pennsylvania – Casey (D)

    Massachusetts – Warren (D) pulled well ahead a month ago, and hasn’t looked back.

    Connecticut – Murphy (D) is almost to double digit leads, even with the McMahan campaign putting up door hangers which endorse her and Obama.

    Maine – King (I) who will probably caucus with Democrats. At least the Democratic voters think so.

    Virginia – Kaine (D) – haven’t seen a poll with Allen ahead since August.

    Florida – Nelson (D) – Mack really ran a poor campaign.



    I posted this not thinking about Nebraska because I don't think Kerry will even come close to an upset.
  9. 05 Nov '12 22:17
    Originally posted by no1marauder
    Colorado went bigger for Democrats than expected in 2008 and 2010; there is an article with the thesis that that is because there is a fair amount of Spanish speaking Hispanics who tend Democrat there and in Nevada (which had similar disparities) who are underrepresented in the polls. So I think Obama wins there. I think he squeaks out Virginia which see ...[text shortened]... figure that as Obama 297 Romney 241.

    Obama wins the popular by right around 1%.
    Colorado also went to Dole when Clinton otherwise blew him out of the water. Colorado is a fickle place, and the polls bother me in that they've been close even when Obama was way ahead. I predict Romney takes it, unless there's one hell of an Hispanic turnout.
  10. Subscriber no1marauder
    It's Nice to Be Nice
    05 Nov '12 22:17
    Originally posted by Kunsoo
    I agree with everything you listed, except that I think Obama will take Virginia and maybe lose New Hampshire.

    Senate Predictions – close races only:

    Nevada – Dean Heller (R) wins

    New Mex – Martin Heinrich (D) wins

    Montana – really close to call, but Tester (D) has been inches ahead for months and the voters like him. Calling it for him.

    No ...[text shortened]... this not thinking about Nebraska because I don't think Kerry will even come close to an upset.
    I think Baldwin wins and Tester loses.
  11. Subscriber no1marauder
    It's Nice to Be Nice
    05 Nov '12 22:21
    Originally posted by Kunsoo
    Colorado also went to Dole when Clinton otherwise blew him out of the water. Colorado is a fickle place, and the polls bother me in that they've been close even when Obama was way ahead. I predict Romney takes it, unless there's one hell of an Hispanic turnout.
    The article I was referring to:

    Shortly after the 2010 midterm elections, Jim Margolis, a longtime Democratic pollster who's now a top media consultant for Obama's reelection campaign, cowrote a memo outlining how the Democrats had managed to save his then-boss, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.). During the fall, Reid had looked like he was going to get swept away in the tea party wave that handed the GOP a majority in the House of Representatives. Polls showed Reid trailing his Republican opponent, Sharron Angle, by an average of nearly 3 points. Republicans were about to knock off the second Democratic Senate leader in a row, having ended Tom Daschle's Senate career in 2004.

    Then something weird happened. Reid won—by almost 6 points. In Colorado, another state with a large Latino population, Democratic Senate candidate Michael Bennet eked out a 1-point win despite polls showing his GOP rival, Ken Buck, up by an average of about 3 points. For good reason, politicos have calloused fingers from hitting refresh on New York Times' numbers guru Nate Silver's website, but even his model predicted likely Republican wins in Nevada and Colorado in 2010.

    "Nobody had Reid winning, nobody had Reid ahead," says Brad Coker, a pollster for Mason-Dixon, the firm hired by the Las Vegas Review-Journal to poll the state. "People underestimated the ability to turn out Hispanic voters the way they had turned out for Obama." In the memo written after Reid's win, Margolis and Reid pollster Mark Mellman said the same thing: Latino voters, undersampled by pollsters and written off as unlikely voters, had made a huge difference for Democrats.

    How did this happen? According to Matt Barreto of Latino Decisions, a polling firm that specializes in public opinion surveys of the Latino community, pollsters were using outdated methods that simply missed the Latino voter surge. Small sample sizes of Latinos, ineffective or inadequate efforts to reach "Spanish-dominant" Latino voters, and failing to account for how many Latino voters would turn out kept most pollsters from identifying what immigration reform advocate Frank Sharry called the Democrats' Latino "firewall" in 2010. Barreto argues that the polls often miss working-class Latinos, who are more likely to use cellphones, work long hours, and prefer to speak Spanish. Instead, the polls are more likely to reach more financially comfortable, "English-dominant" Latinos who are more likely to vote Republican. Robopolls, in which an automated prompt calls voters, tend to be particularly bad at measuring Latino public opinion, even when they have a Spanish-language option, Barreto says.

    "When you start polling in any state that's competitive with a big component of the electorate being Latino, you tend to see that they tend to underestimate the Latino vote," says David Damore, a political science professor at the University of Nevada. "[The result] tends to be more Republican than it actually will be."

    Barreto says it's happening again this year. "Pollsters who are missing that component of the correct proportion of Spanish interviews, they are completely underestimating a growing part of the electorate, and this is the part that is most heavily Democratic," he argues. "They're are operating on models that are at best 20 years old." (Barreto expanded on his theory in a post written Monday.)

    http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/10/polls-undercounting-latino-voters


    The Colorado electorate is a lot difference from 1996 and the piece makes a persuasive case.
  12. 05 Nov '12 22:26
    Originally posted by sh76
    Last chance I suppose.

    My prediction:

    Romney takes FL, VA, CO, NC

    Obama takes NH, WI, PA, OH, NV, IA

    EC total: Obama 281 Romney 257

    Popular vote: Obama + 1.5%
    Looking at Obama at 277 at

    http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map

    I give Obama NH 4, VA 13, CO 9, for a total of 303, Romney of course FL, NC and the rest.

    Obama 54%
  13. Standard member Soothfast
    0,1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,
    05 Nov '12 23:31
    I go with the poll aggregates, which are nearly never wrong:

    Obama will win every state he won in 2008 except for Indiana, North Carolina, and Florida.

    Hence: Obama 303 & Romney 235.

    As for the popular vote, my wild-assed wager is that Obama will win it by 1.1%.
  14. Standard member Soothfast
    0,1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,
    05 Nov '12 23:36
    Originally posted by no1marauder
    The article I was referring to:

    Shortly after the 2010 midterm elections, Jim Margolis, a longtime Democratic pollster who's now a top media consultant for Obama's reelection campaign, cowrote a memo outlining how the Democrats had managed to save his then-boss, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.). During the fall, Reid had looked like he was g ...[text shortened]... is a lot difference from 1996 and the piece makes a persuasive case.
    All that, plus Reid has probably the most incredibly efficient GOTV machine in the country. And it's working for Obama this year, which is why I have no doubt Nevada will be in Obama's column when the votes are counted.
  15. 05 Nov '12 23:40
    Originally posted by rwingett
    Johnson Toribiong will top the 5,000 vote mark to retain the presidency of Palau, +3.4% over Tommy Remengesau.
    I have been to Palau.

    Just saying.