@moonbus saidI know the electoral college is the most obvious bulwark against actual representative democracy in the US but I understand it was designed to keep a bunch economically and socially disparate states in a union.
I believe that the reality on the ground is that the Republican Party does not represent the majority of Americans' interests, or even as many as the Democratic Party does. So, in a straightforward majority-rule system, Republicans are bound to take a back seat unless they game the system somehow. In both Bush-Gore and Trump-Clinton, the Democratic candidate polled more popu ...[text shortened]... ir possible terms of office. In the current situation, neither candidate fulfils all three criteria.
There is no reason why they cannot open up the White House to the popular vote whilst retaining the representation that the states have via congress.
Either way I think the Republican Right will lose control of the whole system due to the sort of demographic changes that have been highlighted in Georgia and it’s neighbours.
@Earl-of-Trumps
Is there some huge problem with Americans just starting to work together again, like where the senate and house and repubs and dems used to dicker and come to a deal after negotiations and such. There is a huge problem with that outcome?
Don't forget, dems did pick up a seat in senate so it only takes one nay repub vote to cause a 50/50 and then the VP casts the deciding vote so it may come down to that.
I suppose that kind of thinking now is anti American, right?
Do you seriously think the senate is going to be as hard headed as they have been for the past ten years or so?
I think they are going to change their stance and start dealing with dems.
I may be wrong but that is my take.
BTW, on an aside, we took a trip to Stroudsburg PA and on 209 N found a HUGE sign, TRUMP STORE.
A very short lived business. I think they were counting on a Trump win.....
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@earl-of-trumps saidOr an heir like Trump.
@Zahlanzi - Amerika is great if you're a millionaire.
America is great if you are a millionaire industrialist, or a politician.
@moonbus saidIt's going to be Kamala
A word of advice to the Democratic Party: start today to groom a credible candidate for 2024. A credible candidate this time around should have knocked Trumpashenko into a cocked hat.
A word of advice to the Republican party: dump Trump. He's a wanna-be dictator who is destroying the institutions of democracy. Adopt his policies if you find them soun ...[text shortened]... he process, otherwise Putin and Jinping will be gloating over the beginning of the end of democracy.
@sonhouse saidMcConnell has already said that he will take every opportunity to stand in Biden's way.
@Earl-of-Trumps
Is there some huge problem with Americans just starting to work together again, like where the senate and house and repubs and dems used to dicker and come to a deal after negotiations and such. There is a huge problem with that outcome?
Don't forget, dems did pick up a seat in senate so it only takes one nay repub vote to cause a 50/50 and then the VP ca ...[text shortened]... E sign, TRUMP STORE.
A very short lived business. I think they were counting on a Trump win.....
Assuming this "result" holds (I'll believe it when I see it), I think it is for the best.
There are many good things about America that were obscured from sight by having the embodiment of the ugly side of the country as leader. A Biden win without the ability to go knee-jerk in the other direction will hopefully heal the partisan divide and allow Americans to trust each other again. From an international perspective, he'll certainly be easier to deal with.
It seems I correctly estimated the margin by which the polls were off, but my models didn't control for turnout and mail-in voting. Leaving these critically correlated variables in the error term lead, in effect, to substantial omitted variable bias - not that those variables had much in the way of precedent that would have caused their data to have much predictive power.
Oh well. The road to being a good statistician is paved with many failures. And I couldn't be happier to get this one wrong.
@earl-of-trumps saidWhich obviously means it is not a communist State.
@Zahlanzi - Amerika is great if you're a millionaire.
America is great if you are a millionaire industrialist, or a politician.
In Commie countries, the only millionaires are the politicians and their butt kissers.
Dude, sometimes you’re so stupid you make trump sound like Einstein.
@ashiitaka said“It seems I correctly estimated the margin by which the polls were off, but my models didn't control for turnout and mail-in voting. Leaving these critically correlated variables in the error term lead, in effect, to substantial omitted variable bias - not that those variables had much in the way of precedent that would have caused their data to have much predictive power.“
Assuming this "result" holds (I'll believe it when I see it), I think it is for the best.
There are many good things about America that were obscured from sight by having the embodiment of the ugly side of the country as leader. A Biden win without the ability to go knee-jerk in the other direction will hopefully heal the partisan divide and allow Americans to trust eac ...[text shortened]... ng a good statistician is paved with many failures. And I couldn't be happier to get this one wrong.
Not very pretentious at all.
🙄
@shavixmir saidModelling to solve real-world problems (such as in economics) is what I do. I'm sorry you find it pretentious.
“It seems I correctly estimated the margin by which the polls were off, but my models didn't control for turnout and mail-in voting. Leaving these critically correlated variables in the error term lead, in effect, to substantial omitted variable bias - not that those variables had much in the way of precedent that would have caused their data to have much predictive power.“
Not very pretentious at all.
🙄
I find your potty-mouthed proselytising about the greatness of Europe to be more than a little pretentious.
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@ashiitaka saidSorry about that.
Modelling to solve real-world problems (such as in economics) is what I do. I'm sorry you find it pretentious.
I find your potty-mouthed proselytising about the greatness of Europe to be more than a little pretentious.
I can’t help it that Europe’s the greatest place in the world.
Damn, licking the hairy, sweaty armpits of an unwashed French geriatric is better than anything non-European.
The modelling isn’t what was pretentious:
“...Leaving these critically correlated variables in the error term lead, in effect, to substantial omitted variable bias - not that those variables had much in the way of precedent...”
Most of us are just smart enough to tie our shoelaces.
@ashiitaka saidA model that didn't control for turnout and mail in voting in the US 2020 was pretty worthless.
Assuming this "result" holds (I'll believe it when I see it), I think it is for the best.
There are many good things about America that were obscured from sight by having the embodiment of the ugly side of the country as leader. A Biden win without the ability to go knee-jerk in the other direction will hopefully heal the partisan divide and allow Americans to trust eac ...[text shortened]... ng a good statistician is paved with many failures. And I couldn't be happier to get this one wrong.
Turnout should have been anticipated to be very high after 2018 turnout set records for a midterm US election.
Mail in votes shouldn't have altered any estimation of final vote results; whether you vote by mail or in person is irrelevant to your vote. Yes, more Democrats voted by mail and more Republicans voted in person but either way the vote counts are the same irrespective of method.
I'll admit my original estimate was cruder though based on relevant historical and other factors to wit:
1) Trump was an unpopular President with a low approval rating who had gotten only about 46% of the vote in 2016:
2) He ran a "base" campaign making little effort to expand beyond the Trump voters in 2016. If you want to look at it in poker terms, he thought he could pull an inside straight twice in a row.
@no1marauder saidFlawed? Yes. Worthless? No.
A model that didn't control for turnout and mail in voting in the US 2020 was pretty worthless.
Turnout should have been anticipated to be very high after 2018 turnout set records for a midterm US election.
Mail in votes shouldn't have altered any estimation of final vote results; whether you vote by mail or in person is irrelevant to your vote. Yes, more Democrats ...[text shortened]... f you want to look at it in poker terms, he thought he could pull an inside straight twice in a row.
You risked nothing with your prediction. Like many others, you predicted a landslide win for a superior candidate with a rather large poll lead. When I made my prediction about the states, you might have been polite, but in truth you were thinking "this silly kid is going to be humiliated".
I'm not American and I've never set foot in the US, yet I came pretty close - many of the states I called for Trump slipped away at the last second.
I would tell you to be gracious but that seems to go without saying.