Uncertainity and information

@sonhouse said
Simple math problem? What problem? the probability of life forming from mud or whatever in planets around the universe like the Drake equation?
In your time in R&D, what was the size of the individual transistors back then?
Now they are striving for TWO frigging nanometers, I think 4 is what is in production.
At that rate they are counting individual atoms! My old ion i ...[text shortened]... to penetrate deep enough to make a buried conductive layer but now you breath on it and you are in.

There is NOTHING that has to be worked out here I am telling you everything happened when and where you say it did, and all I am asking is in the amount of time you decide, to get to a 30 trillion cell creature, how many mutations a year are required. I could have choose a whale, a tree, but went with human.

Every mutation is a successful move toward human life, how many per year are required?

@KellyJay said
There is NOTHING that has to be worked out here I am telling you everything happened when and where you say it did, and all I am asking is in the amount of time you decide, to get to a 30 trillion cell creature, how many mutations a year are required. I could have choose a whale, a tree, but went with human.

Every mutation is a successful move toward human life, how many per year are required?

And I am assuming you know that.

@sonhouse said
And I am assuming you know that.

I am asking to give me a number where we can account for 30 trillion cells, start where you want, how many successful mutations must occur each year? You pick the starting point and do the math, ignore all possible negative effects, how many per year are required?

@KellyJay said
I am asking to give me a number where we can account for 30 trillion cells, start where you want, how many successful mutations must occur each year? You pick the starting point and do the math, ignore all possible negative effects, how many per year are required?

You do realize I TOLD you I was an expert in ion implanters and sputtering machines and CVD's and electron microscopes, right?
So how am I supposed to be able to calculate that s h i t anyway?

@sonhouse said
You do realize I TOLD you I was an expert in ion implanters and sputtering machines and CVD's and electron microscopes, right?
So how am I supposed to be able to calculate that s h i t anyway?

How much time do you think life had from it’s beginning? We are simply asking how much time we have divide that into 30 trillion. That is not exact obviously but it give us some grasp how much work is needed to reach 30 Trillion per year with every mutation moving towards a goal. For this we ignore all the failures. dead ends, meaningless mutations, we don’t worry about mutations going towards other life. If they all move towards 30 trillion how many per year.

@KellyJay said
How much time do you think life had from it’s beginning? We are simply asking how much time we have divide that into 30 trillion. That is not exact obviously but it give us some grasp how much work is needed to reach 30 Trillion per year with every mutation moving towards a goal. For this we ignore all the failures. dead ends, meaningless mutations, we don’t worry about mutations going towards other life. If they all move towards 30 trillion how many per year.

Which of course leads you to your REAL objective, GODDIDIT. You want to prove it by probability theory.
In my opinion, a god ruling over every cell to go from mud to us is a form of slavery that any god would not want, constant attention to every atom on Earth and every atom in the entire Universe culling out mutations that won't lead where said deity wants life to lead.

It is absurd to think a deity would want to do that.
At best if a deity wanted to generate life, it would be a lot less energy intensive to just make the rules of the entire universe to be amenable to life, then it would not have to herd countless quadrillions, quintillions of quadrillions of atoms urged to move together in just the right way so life pops out of mud.

To me that is a preposterous situation a god would not want to be trapped into, herding all those atoms into just the right molecules to force life to come about in an otherwise lifeless universe and without such a deity running the garden atom by atom would never make life.

I think that is the most arrogant stance any religious person could take about life origins that a deity would be so trapped it would have to herd all the atoms in the universe into making life possible, like herding the atoms into molecules that makes for a planet that can support life, like a nice atmosphere like Earth with plenty of water but the evidence AGAINST that is the plethora of planets that maybe USED to be benign enough to have life like Mars or Venus, both from the standpoint of life are failed experiments.

Or the life that may yet be discovered in the far out reaches of the solar system, the moons of Jupiter and Saturn or maybe Uranus, with tidal interactions heating the inside enough for billions of years to create liquid water amenable to life, and therefore life like that all around the universe.

In that scenario that god would maybe wanting to develop life forms it wants that will worship it which seems ridiculous on the face of it since an infinite god would not have to herd uncountable numbers of atoms together to build up life taking billions of years to go from bacteria to us.

A REAL deity could just go FUUK this herding crap, wave its theoretical arms and go Earth, form together NOW, Life, come together NOW, not 3 billion years later like science has already proved is how long it took for life to go from bacteria to us.

That instant Earth is not how it happened, it took billions of years no matter how religious ones like you want to slant it.

And the same with the failed planets, failed in the effort to make viable life, Venus may have had life a couple billion years ago just like Mars but the forces around them screwed that up pretty quickly, Mars because it had little in the way of a shielding magnetic field like Earth that keeps the worse of solar storms from devastating any life that would form so Mars is barren because of that and the mass not being quite high enough to keep gravitationally its atmosphere.
Now Venus on the other hand, not sure about the magnetic field there but it is quite a bit closer to the sun so got more solar intensity in the first place and something happened, like our Earth is toying with right now, but on Venus, total runaway greenhouse gas making a 900 degree surface with basically a sulfuric acid atmosphere at 1500 pounds per square inch so any life that lived there a few billion years ago would have been literally fried out of existance.
Now why would a god WANT that if that god WANTED life to form?

My stance is no god was involved no matter what probability theory you throw at it, at most a god went SCREW that herding every atom, MY universe will be made to be amenable to life and so my rules of physics will be set up in such a way to allow the POSSIBILITY of life to form anywhere half way decent conditions prevail so Earth won out because it got the right stuff billions of years ago with countless asteroid hits and comets loaded down with water to give Earth oceans and a molten core spinning enough to generate that precious magnetic shield needed to keep any new life forming from getting torn apart atom by atom from high UV radiation and even higher energy cosmic rays and such slamming into Earth every second but the magnetic shield keeps the majority of that nasty stuff off of us both by our nice relatively thick atmosphere blocking UV and such.

But Mars and Venus, not so lucky and so it seems to me the same for the rest of the stars and planets around them, maybe it takes a million star/planet systems to make an Earth life planet capable of making life from mud so what, with quadrillions of planets that makes literally millions of Earth like planets available to make life from mud.

That makes a lot more sense than a god trapped into having to herd every frigging atom to make life, which if in fact that was the case then Venus, Mars, the moons of Jupiter would ALL have life thriving on them because the stated goal you guys set up about such a god would force them into a multi billion year trap of herding atoms which to me is from an energy perspective highly unlikely.
Much more likely a god making a universe with the right physics to allow life to form from mud so it can come back like a human managing a garden, some gardens get more production than others and I think that is a much more likely scenario IF in fact it was a god who made up our universe.

With the laws of physics only slightly different, maybe the speed of light is one meter per second instead of 300,000 km per second or the strength of the strong force stronger or weaker not allowing our kind of matter to form at all but all these laws allows matter like ours to thrive in the entire universe because the laws of physics is the same on Earth as it is on Pluto or Alpha Centauri because there are countless stars that are very close to our own sun. That alone says there must be planets around at least some small percentage of them to make life from mud. Energetically speaking that is a much more palatable idea of a deity setting things up to allow the CHANCE of life and if we fuuk up the whole planet like we are doing right now, the top of the food chain like humans or lions or whales may go extinct into a Venus like atmosphere with temperatures of 2 or 300 degrees and a totally poisonous atmosphere that can break apart delicate molecular arrangements like what happens on Venus, NOTHING can form living beings in a 900 degree atmosphere and 1500 PSI sulfuric acid atmosphere. It CAN happen right hear on Earth, maybe not THAT severe because Venus is closer to Sol so any runaway greenhouse would be clearly a lot more severe and Mercury totally blasted 24/7 so no atmosphere could EVER form, no nice magnetic field, not enough mass to retain an atmosphere so from a life perspective just another failed experiment.

@sonhouse said
Which of course leads you to your REAL objective, GODDIDIT. You want to prove it by probability theory.
In my opinion, a god ruling over every cell to go from mud to us is a form of slavery that any god would not want, constant attention to every atom on Earth and every atom in the entire Universe culling out mutations that won't lead where said deity wants life to lead.
...[text shortened]... , not enough mass to retain an atmosphere so from a life perspective just another failed experiment.

You cannot help yourself. I asked a question about numbers, and this is you not answering a simple math problem and making it once again about me. What happened? The answer scared you; I didn't bring up God; you did.

@KellyJay said
You cannot help yourself. I asked a question about numbers, and this is you not answering a simple math problem and making it once again about me. What happened? The answer scared you; I didn't bring up God; you did.

What "Simple" math problem? I TOLD you my expertise is in cleanroom hardware, how is that supposed to give me the answer to your "simple" problem about 30 trillion mutations or some such?

I don't think you even read what I wrote. You didn't even acknowledge I wrote anything.
You didn't try to refute what I wrote, only bitching about some 'simple' math problem I am supposed to have the skills to answer and there is no way I can answer some question about what, 30 trillion mutations or something, Spell out the question in more detail so at least I can understand what you are saying.
I am not a fuuking biologist, what part of THAT do you not understand?

@sonhouse said
What "Simple" math problem? I TOLD you my expertise is in cleanroom hardware, how is that supposed to give me the answer to your "simple" problem about 30 trillion mutations or some such?

I don't think you even read what I wrote. You didn't even acknowledge I wrote anything.
You didn't try to refute what I wrote, only bitching about some 'simple' math problem I am suppo ...[text shortened]... erstand what you are saying.
I am not a fuuking biologist, what part of THAT do you not understand?

You cannot have one of these conversations without bringing God in since you are so hell-bent on keeping Him out of a possibility in life.

@KellyJay said
You cannot have one of these conversations without bringing God in since you are so hell-bent on keeping Him out of a possibility in life.

I never said a WORD about god in that last post. I AKED you what is the math problem you are spouting. Is there no answer to THAT question?
Or does my stance on religion preclude you from answering that question?

@sonhouse said
I never said a WORD about god in that last post. I AKED you what is the math problem you are spouting. Is there no answer to THAT question?
Or does my stance on religion preclude you from answering that question?

If there are 30T cells and we have X amount of time to reach that number from whatever starting point you name, every single mutation counts towards the goal. Can you not do that math? If you cannot figure that out, tell me when the first life appeared on earth, and that will be the starting point, and I'll do it. It isn't that hard.

This would be the best case for the number of mutations required per year. Obviously, that is not possible.

@KellyJay said
If there are 30T cells and we have X amount of time to reach that number from whatever starting point you name, every single mutation counts towards the goal. Can you not do that math? If you cannot figure that out, tell me when the first life appeared on earth, and that will be the starting point, and I'll do it. It isn't that hard.

This would be the best case for the number of mutations required per year. Obviously, that is not possible.

You never mentioned units till now, are we talking about number of mutations per second, minute, hour, day, year, century, millennia? and the number we need is 30 E12? 3 E13?

One question is why is there a needed number of mutations? when you say mutations are you talking about say a bird with previous generation has 4 inch feathers but the next gen, the feathers are 4.2 inches. Is that what you call a mutation?

@sonhouse said
You never mentioned units till now, are we talking about number of mutations per second, minute, hour, day, year, century, millennia? and the number we need is 30 E12? 3 E14?

I have been saying 30 T the starting point is when life began, per year how many mutations get us to 30T. We count them all just looking at what it would take.

@KellyJay said
I have been saying 30 T the starting point is when life began, per year how many mutations get us to 30T. We count them all just looking at what it would take.

So how many mutations do you expect say per century? And I think you mean they have to add up to 30 trillion? Where did that number come from?
Life forms have different mutation rates so what is a number for one is not a number for another.
There are for instance sharks with very low cancer rates and very long lifespans, and cancer rates are tied to the number of mutations some form of life has over its lifespan and life span is tied to the number of mutations per some unit, year? Not sure but Humans have a rather low rate so we can live 110 or more years but cats say live for maybe 20 years so we live 5 times longer than cats and the mutation rate in cats is higher so those numbers seem to pretty much tie into the mutation rate

It seems to me tying this mutation rate may be unwarranted. Where did you get that number? I think you are implying if we need 30 trillion and we get some number per year there are not enough years to get there but I am questioning the need to use that number. How am I supposed to know the validity of that number and what the units are for mutations per year or something?

So your math is to prove it is impossible to go from here to there in some 3 billion years.
Which implies since you said it was not possible and we are therefore back to my thesis, you are trying to prove Goddidit.

@sonhouse said
So how many mutations do you expect say per century? And I think you mean they have to add up to 30 trillion? Where did that number come from?
Life forms have different mutation rates so what is a number for one is not a number for another.
There are for instance sharks with very low cancer rates and very long lifespans, and cancer rates are tied to the number of mutations ...[text shortened]... u said it was not possible and we are therefore back to my thesis, you are trying to prove Goddidit.

The human body is supposed to have 30 trillion cells; there are about 200 different types, but they are all the same for this number exercise. Stop worrying about anything but the numbers; who cares about cancer in this? Are you just stalling? If you are unwilling or unable,, just tell me when you think life started.