Carl Sagan on WatchTower 1914 Prediction

"Doctrines that make no predictions are less compelling than those which make correct predictions; they are in turn more successful than doctrines that make false predictions.

But not always. One prominent American religion confidently predicted that the world would end in 1914. Well, 1914 has come and gone, and -- while the events of that year were certainly of some importance -- the world does not, at least so far as I can see, seem to have ended.

There are at least three responses that an organized religion can make in the face of such a failed and fundamental prophecy.

They could have said, "Oh, did we say '1914'? So sorry, we meant '2014.' A slight error in calculation. Hope you weren't inconvenienced in any way." But they did not.

They could have said, "Well, the world would have ended, except we prayed very hard and interceded with God so He spared the Earth." But they did not. Instead, they did something much more ingenious.

They announced that the world had in fact ended in 1914, and if the rest of us hadn't noticed, that was our lookout. It is astonishing in the face of such transparent evasions that this religion has any adherents at all. But religions are tough. Either they make no contentions which are subject to disproof or they quickly redesign doctrine after disproof.

The fact that religions can be so shamelessly dishonest, so contemptuous of the intelligence of their adherents, and still flourish does not speak very well for the tough-mindedness of the believers. But it does indicate, if a demonstration were needed, that near the core of the religious experience is something remarkably resistant to rational inquiry."

Broca's Brain, Carl Sagan (New York: Ballantine Books, 1979, pp. 332-33)

Originally posted by Rajk999
"Doctrines that make no predictions are less compelling than those which make correct predictions; they are in turn more successful than doctrines that make false predictions.

But not always. One prominent American religion confidently predicted that the world would end in 1914. Well, 1914 has come and gone, and -- while the events of that year were certa quiry."

Broca's Brain, Carl Sagan (New York: Ballantine Books, 1979, pp. 332-33)

Amen!

Originally posted by Rajk999
"Doctrines that make no predictions are less compelling than those which make correct predictions; they are in turn more successful than doctrines that make false predictions.

But not always. One prominent American religion confidently predicted that the world would end in 1914. Well, 1914 has come and gone, and -- while the events of that year were certa ...[text shortened]... quiry."

Broca's Brain, Carl Sagan (New York: Ballantine Books, 1979, pp. 332-33)

"They announced that the world had in fact ended in 1914, and if the rest of us hadn't noticed, that was our lookout."

What? When did they announce this?

Originally posted by galveston75
"They announced that the world had in fact ended in 1914, and if the rest of us hadn't noticed, that was our lookout."

What? When did they announce this?

Haven't you ever bothered to actually read your organization's publications on this? After 1914 came and went, it was claimed by Rutherford and enshrined in your organization's publications (for example, in the publication Millions Now Living Will Never Die! ) that, indeed, the social order of things had "legally" ended in 1914. Please stop pretending like you do not understand that Sagan's comment was in reference to these sorts of antics. Rutherford of course made further ridiculous eschatological predictions for the 1920s, which of course also failed to obtain.

Nowadays, you seem content in continuing to reaffirm the significance of 1914, but you construe "the generation" attached to it in some outrageously grotesque fashion that makes the associated eschatological prediction basically immune to disconfirmation. This was basically done to spare your organization embarrassment (probably a bit too late on that one, don't you think? ). But one problem for you here is that predictions that fail to have conceivable disconfirmation conditions, also fail to actually assert anything meaningful.

Originally posted by Rajk999
The fact that religions can be so shamelessly dishonest, so contemptuous of the intelligence of their adherents, and still flourish does not speak very well for the tough-mindedness of the believers. But it does indicate, if a demonstration were needed, that near the core of the religious experience is something remarkably resistant to rational inquiry.

Carl Sagan

It was worthwhile to have logged into RHP today. Thanks!

Originally posted by LemonJello
Haven't you ever bothered to actually read your organization's publications on this? After 1914 came and went, it was claimed by Rutherford and enshrined in your organization's publications (for example, in the publication Millions Now Living Will Never Die! ) that, indeed, the social order of things had "legally" ended in 1914. Please stop prete nceivable disconfirmation conditions, also fail to actually assert anything meaningful.

I wonder if they are going to dramatize the year 2014 which is not that far away in time. I would bet dimes to donuts they have SOMETHING 'significant' planned.

So many idiots believe the world will end in December of THIS year, they probably want to get into that act since it's only 2 years from now, 1 and one half actually.

http://www.bible.ca/jw-1914-generation.htm

interesting on what a generation is 🙂 and how it can be modified




Manny

Originally posted by LemonJello
Haven't you ever bothered to actually read your organization's publications on this? After 1914 came and went, it was claimed by Rutherford and enshrined in your organization's publications (for example, in the publication Millions Now Living Will Never Die! ) that, indeed, the social order of things had "legally" ended in 1914. Please stop prete ...[text shortened]... nceivable disconfirmation conditions, also fail to actually assert anything meaningful.

" the social order of things had "legally" ended in 1914 "

No clue of what he meant by that do you? Of course you don't and I doubt you even care. So I'll not waist my time trying.

But he did not say on any level the world had ended as we are still here aren't we as well as he was alive when he stated that, right? So that's bull no matter what Mr. Sagan says.

Originally posted by galveston75
" the social order of things had "legally" ended in 1914 "

No clue of what he meant by that do you? Of course you don't and I doubt you even care. So I'll not waist my time trying.

But he did not say on any level the world had ended as we are still here aren't we as well as he was alive when he stated that, right? So that's bull no matter what Mr. Sagan says.

Yeah, right, you have no clue what he meant by that. You lie like a rug.

And, yes, he did state on some level that the world had ended. Duh!

Originally posted by LemonJello
Yeah, right, you have no clue what he meant by that. You lie like a rug.

And, yes, he did state on some level that the world had ended. Duh!

Yes he did and on a level you don't understand. So there ya go.

Originally posted by sonhouse

So many idiots believe the world will end in December of THIS year,...

August, according to the stellar film.

Having been born after the Modernists, I've always understood that I am a figment of my own imagination.

Originally posted by Wulebgr
Having been born after the Modernists, I've always understood that I am a figment of my own imagination.

I sometimes think of myself as a useful fiction, but I have yet to think of you that way.😉

Originally posted by sonhouse
I wonder if they are going to dramatize the year 2014 which is not that far away in time. I would bet dimes to donuts they have SOMETHING 'significant' planned.

So many idiots believe the world will end in December of THIS year, they probably want to get into that act since it's only 2 years from now, 1 and one half actually.

This is about Planet X and 2012/2013.

YouTube&feature=related

Originally posted by Rajk999
"Doctrines that make no predictions are less compelling than those which make correct predictions; they are in turn more successful than doctrines that make false predictions.

But not always. One prominent American religion confidently predicted that the world would end in 1914. Well, 1914 has come and gone, and -- while the events of that year were certa ...[text shortened]... quiry."

Broca's Brain, Carl Sagan (New York: Ballantine Books, 1979, pp. 332-33)

Brilliant.