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Debates Forum

  1. 14 Sep '12 01:58 / 2 edits
    The blog begins with this (and has a couple of graphics):

    The Republican Dilemma on a Map

    The Republican Party’s most electable candidate starts this race trailing Obama by only a few points in national polls. That seems like a promising development until you look at the map. At this point the most likely outcome of the 2012 Presidential race is a modest win by Obama in terms of the popular vote, but an Electoral College landslide virtually identical to 2008.


    http://blog.chron.com/goplifer/2012/09/the-republican-dilemma-on-a-map/
  2. 14 Sep '12 01:59
    An excerpt:
    In a single generation we have abandoned our overwhelming center-right majority and replaced it at the national level with a bitter, racially-tinged fortress strategy. Facing the weakest Democratic competition in decades, this year’s Republican nominee has a chance to win your state if:

    1) It failed to outlaw slavery prior to the Civil War, or

    2) It has no major metropolitan areas, or

    3) You live in Ohio and the vote suppression campaign works

    . . .

    Instead of competing nationally, the GOP is embracing a strategy of extreme ideological rigidity in the areas where its message still resonates. What we have lost in breadth we are compensating for in intensity.

    The national GOP has set itself firmly against every dominant demographic trend. America is becoming more ethnically diverse, less religious, and more urban in an unrelenting march. Hispanics are the country’s fastest growing ethnic group. Two elections ago George Bush carried almost half of the Hispanic vote. Now they support Obama at a whopping 70% rate. City-dwellers are solidly Democratic. Obama holds more than a 10-point lead among women.

    The future looks even worse as young people are trending Democratic at rates not seen in decades. In 1980, Reagan carried 60% of young voters. As recently as 1992 more voters under thirty identified as Republicans than Democrats. In 2008 two-thirds of young people voted for Obama, and he retains a 26-point lead going into this election.
  3. 14 Sep '12 02:05
    Originally posted by moon1969
    An excerpt:
    In a single generation we have abandoned our overwhelming center-right majority and replaced it at the national level with a bitter, racially-tinged fortress strategy. Facing the weakest Democratic competition in decades, this year’s Republican nominee has a chance to win your state if:

    1) It failed to outlaw slavery prior to th ...[text shortened]... f young people voted for Obama, and he retains a 26-point lead going into this election.
    If Republicans are just to be foils for the Democrats, to go along with what they dictate, perhaps moderating with an amendment now and then, then what good are they?

    Many people believe that the nation needs an about face from its trend toward central planning and socialism, and a return to its classical liberal roots. If the Republican party doesn't represent that, then let it pass on like the Federalists before it.
  4. 14 Sep '12 02:17 / 1 edit
    Originally posted by normbenign
    If Republicans are just to be foils for the Democrats, to go along with what they dictate, perhaps moderating with an amendment now and then, then what good are they?

    Many people believe that the nation needs an about face from its trend toward central planning and socialism, and a return to its classical liberal roots. If the Republican party doesn't represent that, then let it pass on like the Federalists before it.
    I think it likely especially as the demographics continue to evolve, the Democrat party will generally become the majority party. I happen to agree with this GOPlifer blogger (I have commented to him he should become Democrat) that the only chance the GOP has on the national level is to go center right and not far right.

    You raise an interesting point, i.e., the complete demise and essential dissolution of the Republican party. Yet, in my feeble opinion, if a far left or far right party were to replace the GOP, that party would also be a minority party. Same goes for some sort of party having a "classical" position as you call it.

    Instead, center-right or center-left is the way to win nationally. In contrast, you can have lofty ideas about what you and your party think the nation should be, but if your party can't win, your ideas are not implemented and only at most marginally affect what is implemented.
  5. 14 Sep '12 02:43
    Originally posted by normbenign
    If Republicans are just to be foils for the Democrats, to go along with what they dictate, perhaps moderating with an amendment now and then, then what good are they?

    Many people believe that the nation needs an about face from its trend toward central planning and socialism, and a return to its classical liberal roots. If the Republican party doesn't represent that, then let it pass on like the Federalists before it.
    It's not dictated by "the Democrats", but by demographic and sociological trends among voters. A political party has only a limited power to change the facts on the ground.

    Of course, to the extent that the US Constitution is a classical liberal document, the Supreme Court can look after it.
  6. 14 Sep '12 02:55
    Originally posted by normbenign
    If Republicans are just to be foils for the Democrats, to go along with what they dictate, perhaps moderating with an amendment now and then, then what good are they?

    Many people believe that the nation needs an about face from its trend toward central planning and socialism, and a return to its classical liberal roots. If the Republican party doesn't represent that, then let it pass on like the Federalists before it.
    Yah well both parties are led by Statists, so all you are going to get out of either party are people who will do nothing but centralize power into the hands of the Federal government.
  7. 14 Sep '12 02:56
    Originally posted by Teinosuke
    It's not dictated by "the Democrats", but by demographic and sociological trends among voters. A political party has only a limited power to change the facts on the ground.

    Of course, to the extent that the US Constitution is a classical liberal document, the Supreme Court can look after it.
    You mean redefine it. The Supreme Court is the US Constitution.
  8. Standard member sh76
    Civis Americanus Sum
    14 Sep '12 12:53
    Originally posted by moon1969
    An excerpt:
    In a single generation we have abandoned our overwhelming center-right majority and replaced it at the national level with a bitter, racially-tinged fortress strategy. Facing the weakest Democratic competition in decades, this year’s Republican nominee has a chance to win your state if:

    1) It failed to outlaw slavery prior to th ...[text shortened]... f young people voted for Obama, and he retains a 26-point lead going into this election.
    While I think the voter suppression in Ohio line was a nonsensical cheap shot that sounds like it's coming from a bitter far left nut, not a moderate Republican, I do agree with the basic sentiment; i.e., that a moderate Republican party that is pro-business but understands the need for some regulation and Reagan/Clinton era taxation and is moderate on social issues could have a permanent majority in this country.

    Because of the conservative majority in this country, the conservative Republicans have gotten greedy and moved the party to the right, while the Dems have by and large moderated and have not allowed the party to be run by the left wing fringe.

    After Obama wins this year, I wouldn't be surprised to see the GOP moderate a little in response and the Dems get overconfident and move left. If that happens, you'll see the pendulum start to swing back again to the GOP. Standard 2 party political game.
  9. Standard member sh76
    Civis Americanus Sum
    14 Sep '12 12:56
    Oh, and by the way, Phoenix is a major metropolitan area.
  10. 14 Sep '12 15:44
    Originally posted by moon1969
    An excerpt:
    In a single generation we have abandoned our overwhelming center-right majority and replaced it at the national level with a bitter, racially-tinged fortress strategy. Facing the weakest Democratic competition in decades, this year’s Republican nominee has a chance to win your state if:

    1) It failed to outlaw slavery prior to th ...[text shortened]... f young people voted for Obama, and he retains a 26-point lead going into this election.
    This predicted outcome begs for comparison to Johnson versus Goldwater 1964, excepting that Goldwater was more genuinely committed to his party's platform.
  11. 14 Sep '12 18:00
    Originally posted by sh76
    While I think the voter suppression in Ohio line was a nonsensical cheap shot that sounds like it's coming from a bitter far left nut, not a moderate Republican, I do agree with the basic sentiment; i.e., that a moderate Republican party that is pro-business but understands the need for some regulation and Reagan/Clinton era taxation and is moderate on social i ...[text shortened]... ou'll see the pendulum start to swing back again to the GOP. Standard 2 party political game.
    Good insight but we'll see.
  12. 14 Sep '12 20:09
    Originally posted by moon1969
    I think it likely especially as the demographics continue to evolve, the Democrat party will generally become the majority party. I happen to agree with this GOPlifer blogger (I have commented to him he should become Democrat) that the only chance the GOP has on the national level is to go center right and not far right.

    You raise an interesting point, ...[text shortened]... t win, your ideas are not implemented and only at most marginally affect what is implemented.
    "Moderate" Republicans lose predictably, or when they win, it is by the thinnest of margins. The common wisdom is that independents all occupy a middle ground between the conveniently defined left and right.

    Unfortunately, neither the democrat nor republican parties are purely left or right., and what people understand by those terms differs wildly. Independents, in my view, don't buy the party labels or the coalitions that form them, and are more moved by particular individual populist issues, or such things as how good the candidate looks on TV, or whether they like his sound bites.

    One thing that seems to me to motivate is a perception of honesty, and integrity, though all too often that is a false front for most politicians. I fully recognize that almost every American is voting for the lesser of two evils in their perception.
  13. 14 Sep '12 20:34 / 1 edit
    Originally posted by moon1969
    An excerpt:
    In a single generation we have abandoned our overwhelming center-right majority and replaced it at the national level with a bitter, racially-tinged fortress strategy. Facing the weakest Democratic competition in decades, this year’s Republican nominee has a chance to win your state if:

    1) It failed to outlaw slavery prior to th ...[text shortened]... f young people voted for Obama, and he retains a 26-point lead going into this election.
    "Hispanics are the country's fastest growing ethnic group."

    Actually, Hispanics include many ethnic groups, who may speak different
    dialects (or subdialects) of Spanish. There are some tensions between some
    different Hispanic ethnic groups in the United States. And a Brazilian, who speaks
    Portuguese, may be accurately regarded as a 'Latino', but not as a 'Hispanic'.

    How would a Hispanic whose family's from Guatemala, for instance, feel about
    being told by a nativist American, "Why don't you go back to Mexico?", as
    though Mexico would welcome its immigrants or refugees from Central America?
  14. Subscriber AThousandYoung
    It's only business
    14 Sep '12 20:36
    The "Hispanics" in question are generally "American Indians" from the southern part of north American who have been Hispanicized by conquistadors. We're not getting an influx of people from Spain.
  15. 14 Sep '12 21:27
    Originally posted by Duchess64
    "Hispanics are the country's fastest growing ethnic group."

    Actually, Hispanics include many ethnic groups, who may speak different
    dialects (or subdialects) of Spanish. There are some tensions between some
    different Hispanic ethnic groups in the United States. And a Brazilian, who speaks
    Portuguese, may be accurately regarded as a 'Latino', but n ...[text shortened]... ?", as
    though Mexico would welcome its immigrants or refugees from Central America?
    True, but the point remains that Obama is polling at 70% among Latino Americans generally.