@athousandyoung saidThat was terrorism to fight a militarily superior occupier. That was not a conventional war. You are being silly.
Just want to point out the IRA fought for over half a century without constant influx of weapons from foreign governments and never militarily drove the British out of Ireland.
@metal-brain saidI have to mention it. This is no1marauder I'm talking to.
That was terrorism to fight a militarily superior occupier. That was not a conventional war. You are being silly.
@metal-brain saidI avoid the term because it's poorly defined but if I had to define "win" in this case:
How do you define win?
20 years from now Ukraine is in NATO, the EU and controls Donbas, Crimea etc. This is a Ukraine win.
@athousandyoung saidThat will never happen.
I avoid the term because it's poorly defined but if I had to define "win" in this case:
20 years from now Ukraine is in NATO, the EU and controls Donbas, Crimea etc. This is a Ukraine win.
@metal-brain saidDon't forget in 20 years Vlad Putin will probably be long dead.
That will never happen.
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@no1marauder saidYes
Do you think the Ukraine is willing to engage in a decade or more long struggle to recover every inch of its territory including the Donbass and the Crimea?
Do you think they are likely to be successful in that enterprise even if they are?
And do you think the West will be willing to fund it for an indefinite period of time?
Yes
Yes
But I’d rather the Ukrainians accepted a return to pre invasion map and a complete decoupling from the Crimea and breakaway republics who would have no political, economic or military powers of veto over the remainder of Ukraine.
But in order to do this Ukraine would need NATO membership in order to guarantee the future security of the remnant state.
@metal-brain saidNeither can Russia their army is not up to the task, that was obvious after the first couple of weeks.
Ukraine cannot win.
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@no1marauder saidhttps://www.npr.org/2022/04/21/1094008336/biden-announces-another-800-million-to-support-ukraine-military
Any other theories?
Biden pledged "another" 800 million in military aid to Ukraine in addition to aiding with tactical support, such as giving Ukraine the location of a Russian warship that sank after reportedly being hit by Ukrainian missiles.
All that in addition to other western nations like Germany supporting Ukraine in similar ways. including giving them 1,000 anti-tank weapons and anti-aircraft defense weapons.
You say Ukraine's position is "unrealistic"; this is not a purely one-on-one fight anymore, and hasn't been for quite a while.
@athousandyoung saidWhat will be left of the Ukraine in a "decade or two" of war at this present level?
It might take a decade or two for the Russians to get tired of the constant drain on their resources and leave in the same sort of way both the USSR and USA left Afghanistan to the Taliban. Possibly the Russian government will collapse before then like it did in the middle of WW1 (edit or like it did in the 90's)
@no1marauder saidThe land isn’t going anywhere.
What will be left of the Ukraine in a "decade or two" of war at this present level?
@athousandyoung saidThat's not how the UN sees it:
As far as militarily driving the Russians out of the Black Sea...well Ukraine might actually pull that off. They've already sunk several Russian ships including their flagship cruiser Moskva. A cruiser is not a small ship.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-flagship-black-sea-fleet-badly-damaged-by-blast-2022-04-14/
If Russia loses its Black Sea f ...[text shortened]... the war?
[youtube New Jersey museum guy analyzes Moskva sinking 18 minutes]AWwZVwCrgsQ[/youtube]
"Moscow's comments followed an appeal by the United Nations food chief to Vladimir Putin that millions would die around the world because of the Russian blockade."
"Earlier, United Nations food chief David Beasley appealed directly to the Russian president.
"If you have any heart at all for the rest of the world, regardless of how you feel about Ukraine, you need to open up those ports," he said.
The United Nations is calling on Russia to ensure food supplies get to where they are most needed.
“There is no effective solution to the food crisis without reintegrating Ukraine’s food production, as well as the food and fertilizer produced by Russia and Belarus, into world markets -- despite the war,” said António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations.
“Russia must permit the safe and secure export of grain stored in Ukrainian ports.
https://www.euronews.com/2022/05/19/russia-says-easing-ukraine-black-sea-ports-blockade-dependent-on-sanctions-review
This is another byproduct of continuation of the war.
@athousandyoung saidThat is unlikely, but it would be more likely IF the Ukraine negotiated a reasonable settlement now.
I avoid the term because it's poorly defined but if I had to define "win" in this case:
20 years from now Ukraine is in NATO, the EU and controls Donbas, Crimea etc. This is a Ukraine win.