@joe-shmo saidYour statistical incompetence in this area has been a given on this Forum since, oh, about March.
Out - In = Change
Why are you talking about the rate of change of the CFR rate? We are talking about a change in the CFR rate over time. Those are different things.
The bulk CFR rate according to the CDC = 0.0175 ( up to 221k Deaths, 12.6*10^6 Cases )
The bulk CFR according to Worldometers currently ( 320 k, deaths, 17.8 *10^6 Cases ) = 0.0179
.0179/0.0175 = ...[text shortened]... lemanly of you to admit your mistaken, thus letting me know that you now understand the calculation?
No, I'm not "wrong"; I'm talking about an increase in the CFR that is likely to persist in the future. 220,000 will probably be less than half of the total death toll (slightly higher than your confident 40,000 predicted figure) and if it is currently in the .0193 range rather than the .0175, than all those figures will have to been adjusted upward. And that may well be a mere beginning of an increase, not the end.
@no1marauder saidHer we go...personal attacks...
Your statistical incompetence in this area has been a given on this Forum since, oh, about March.
No, I'm not "wrong"; I'm talking about an increase in the CFR that is likely to persist in the future. 220,000 will probably be less than half of the total death toll (slightly higher than your confident 40,000 predicted figure) and if it is currently in the .0193 range ra ...[text shortened]... ill have to been adjusted upward. And that may well be a mere beginning of an increase, not the end.
Where are you getting that it is currently 0.0193! Show me that calulation!?!
Its current Cumulative Deaths ( 320,028 ) divided by Cumulative Cases ( 17,806,984 )
320,028/17,806,894 ≈ 0.01797...
@no1marauder
The numbers published are no doubt too low since there would be thousands of deaths from individuals who live alone and nobody knows them and so won't be discovered for weeks if not months.
It is SHAMEFUL that here we are one hundred years after the last pandemic, the 'Spanish flu' and we are well on our way to getting close to the last death count of near 700,000.
A hundred years of continuous medical advances and we let, well TRUMP let it get this far.
History is going CASTIGATE our corrupter in chief.
BTW Joe, that was not a personal attack, it was an attack on your competence in statistics.
He did not call you an assswipe like I would have done🙂
@joe-shmo saidFrom YOUR post:
Her we go...personal attacks...
Where are you getting that it is currently 0.0193! Show me that calulation!?!
"The bulk CFR reported by the CDC ( lagging Data ):
221,366/12,646,498 = 0.0175
Currently the bulk CFR according to Worldometer:
320,028/17,806,984 = 0.0179"
Do the math.
98,662/5,160,486 = 0.0191
Sorry, .0191 rather than 0.0193.
And you started with the personal s**t, so don't play offended.
Is a 9% increase in the CFR in the last month or so, "statistically significant"?
@no1marauder saidOMG...you are so frustrating becuase of your arrogance! How many times do I have to say it! That's the RATE OF CHANGE IN RATE, not the CHANGE IN RATE!
From YOUR post:
"The bulk CFR reported by the CDC ( lagging Data ):
221,366/12,646,498 = 0.0175
Currently the bulk CFR according to Worldometer:
320,028/17,806,984 = 0.0179"
Do the math.
98,662/5,160,486 = 0.0191
Sorry, .0191 rather than 0.0193.
And you started with the personal s**t, so don't play offended.
From the day the CDC stops compiling data until NOW ( according to WM ) the CFR has increased by 2%
@joe-shmo saidLOL! You're really a sad story.
OMG...you are so frustrating becuase of your arrogance! How many time do I have to say it! That's the RATE OF CHANGE IN RATE, not the CHANGE IN RATE!
From the day the CDC stops compiling data until NOW ( according to WM ) the CFR has increased by 2%
I suggest you reread my posts and perhaps a light will turn on at some point. My claim was that the increases in death toll due to a higher CFR will eventually lead to increases in the CFR figures you cited. Quite obviously, the figures I have cited strongly support that argument, your petulant foot stamping notwithstanding.
@no1marauder saidThre has been a 2% increase in CFR to date from whenever that CDC data stops to now. It might go up ( things due tend to vary ), but so far the rate hasn't changed much from the CDC data! You were arguing that CDC data was behind so I used WM data and I've gotten nearly the same result! I'm not making a projection! I'm saying that it hasn't changed more than 2% in the time period of the data lag in which you constantly bring up...that's all.
LOL! You're really a sad story.
I suggest you reread my posts and perhaps a light will turn on at some point. My claim was that the increases in death toll due to a higher CFR will eventually lead to increases in the CFR figures you cited. Quite obviously, the figures I have cited strongly support that argument, your petulant foot stamping notwithstanding.
If I am forced to make a projection, my projection is its not going to change as much as you think. That denominator is large in comparison to the numerator.
@joe-shmo
Well I can see one thing: You could care less the death count, regardless of statistics, is now approaching a third of a million.
You never say anything about the sadness of hundreds of thousands of families who cannot even SEE their loved ones on their dying day.
ALL you are interested in is arguing about fukkking STATISTICS.
Tell me, how many deaths will it take till you know too many people have died.
That might make a good song.
@sonhouse saidI had a friend that lost their father ( in his 60's), they stayed away from him for the last couple months because of fakkking COVID and he died of something else ( NOT COVID ). That is happening all the time now. Young people are committing suicide right and left losing their employment, businesses, etc...The elderly need healthy young people to care for them or they will die...They don't have much time left on this earth to begin with! Its not nearly as simple as "shut it down" as you think it is.
@joe-shmo
Well I can see one thing: You could care less the death count, regardless of statistics, is now approaching a third of a million.
You never say anything about the sadness of hundreds of thousands of families who cannot even SEE their loved ones on their dying day.
ALL you are interested in is arguing about fukkking STATISTICS.
Tell me, how many deaths will it take till you know too many people have died.
That might make a good song.
Don't tell me what I know sonhouse.
@joe-shmo
Well you are admitting you don't think the death toll is anything serious.
So your friend died of NOT Covid. So did my MOM but I don't use that as a political talking point.
We ALL lose people, our daughter died in a motorcycle accident but I don't go on Youtube saying motorcycles are death traps and we should outlaw them.
We just MOURN our dead loved ones.
That is the whole POINT, I ONLY see you touting statistics while saying NOTHING about hundreds of thousands of deaths, where in my opinion at least HALF those deaths are DIRECTLY on the hands of Trump who played down the virus from day one, 'Well, I didn't want to cause PANIC' That is a QUOTE.
He has NEVER said anything consoling about those deaths, just 'It will be down to ZERO cases soon or take Chloroquine, it is a CURE or inject bleach, kills the virus in 30 seconds.
How can you support a criminal, a TRATOROUS criminal at that?
You want statistics, how about the four BILLION he stole from the military budget to supposedly build his stupid WALL? There was a real need for that 4 bil where bases now will not get the repairs and updates they need since Trump could care less about the military, actually calling top generals STUPID.
Yet you support the creep.
@sonhouse said3 million people die in the US annually. COVID is less than heart Disease, less than Cancer and is predominantly dangerous to the very elderly...I'm just a realist.
@joe-shmo
Well you are admitting you don't think the death toll is anything serious.
So your friend died of NOT Covid. So did my MOM but I don't use that as a political talking point.
We ALL lose people, our daughter died in a motorcycle accident but I don't go on Youtube saying motorcycles are death traps and we should outlaw them.
We just MOURN our dead loved ones.
...[text shortened]... d care less about the military, actually calling top generals STUPID.
Yet you support the creep.
@joe-shmo
No you are NOT a realist, you are a pathetic imitation of a real person.
You might have a nice engineering degree but that alone does not make you a real person.
Your last statement PROVES you could care less a third of a million NEEDLESS deaths have happened, and at LEAST half of those deaths are DIRECTLY on the small hands of your buddy Trump.
Try to argue THAT one.
@dood111 saidThank for being a willing Guinea Pig.
I will the first chance I get.
Pfizer and Moderna claim their COVID vaccines are “more than 90% effective,” but people should know that those claims are based on inadequate testing. “They just used PCR tests, not the gold standard for testing which requires following up those PCR test results with genetic sequencing.