@Metal-Brain
Heil Putin! You are good at that. Do you need help getting a Russian passport? We can help you, maybe you need a ticket to Moscow where you would be welcomed with open arms, even get a TV show like Maria....
@no1marauder saidI don't think it's clear that Russia will be satisfied with that at all.
Well sure, the primary goal was to topple the Ukraine's government and impose a puppet, pro-Russian one. But seems clear that failing in that, Russia would be satisfied with either incorporating into itself or establishing as satellite independent States the primarily Russian ethnic parts of the Ukraine. That would leave a much weakened Ukraine.
Militarily, it is already reasonably close to that goal and is slowly getting closer every day.
@sonhouse saidUkraine Fires Own Human Rights Chief For Perpetuating Russian Troop 'Systematic Rape' Stories.
@Metal-Brain
Heil Putin! You are good at that. Do you need help getting a Russian passport? We can help you, maybe you need a ticket to Moscow where you would be welcomed with open arms, even get a TV show like Maria....
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ukraine-fires-human-rights-chief-perpetuating-russian-troop-systematic-rape-stories
You can stop spreading the big lie of Russian Troop 'Systematic Rape' propaganda now.
@no1marauder saidIsn't that entirely up to the Ukrainians ???
I'm waiting for your plan other than to fight to the last Ukrainian.
The "it's another Hitler!" thing has been done to death, to hundreds of thousands of, perhaps millions, of deaths in fact.
I wonder what your "plan" is if North Korea were to actually develop a serious nuclear threat and declare war on Japan and South Korea ? You might just concede that , in order to prevent WWIII , everyone should just surrender to North Korea . I am interested in hearing your reaction .
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@no1marauder saidNow your blatantly lying the Russians invaded the Donbas and Luhansk region in 2014, the aim now is to consolidate their position and extend their front line to take in the whole territory.
You really don't know what you are talking about. Russian forces aren't "retreating to the Donbass" and they haven't controlled that region since 2014. Instead, they are steadily advancing in that area; 40% of the Lukhansk oblast was in separatist hands when the war started- now 95% of it is with the Ukranians about to suffer a major military defeat which will cede the re ...[text shortened]... The bottom line is that your policy prescriptions would be disastrous to the Ukraine and its People.
Ukraines main risk is a large chunk of there army being cut off in the oblast that is the western part of the region still in Ukraines possession.
Maybe you should swat up on the geography of eastern Ukraine, the mighty Russian army is still trying to capture the western Donbas region even though they invaded eastern Donbas about the same time as they invaded the Crimea. They have made ground there and the oblast is narrowing requiring the Ukrainian army to make a difficult choice regarding cutting its losses and giving Russia some momentum or staying and possibly losing a lot of manpower just to slow the Russian armies progress in Donbas.
@no1marauder saidThat would not seriously weaken Ukraine but his push along the coast to south western Ukraine would though which is where he will focus his efforts once he feels he has consolidated his grip on eastern Ukraine. But hopefully those longer range rocket artillery pieces of yours should arrive long before he can achieve that goal, some shore to ship stuff would be nice too.
Well sure, the primary goal was to topple the Ukraine's government and impose a puppet, pro-Russian one. But seems clear that failing in that, Russia would be satisfied with either incorporating into itself or establishing as satellite independent States the primarily Russian ethnic parts of the Ukraine. That would leave a much weakened Ukraine.
Militarily, it is already reasonably close to that goal and is slowly getting closer every day.
@athousandyoung saidThe longer the war lasts, the more Ukranian territory they will hold. So they'll have to be offered something in return for leaving them; this is called "a negotiation".
I don't think it's clear that Russia will be satisfied with that at all.
@kevcvs57 saidRussia already holds most of Ukraine's coast and has securely blockaded the rest.
That would not seriously weaken Ukraine but his push along the coast to south western Ukraine would though which is where he will focus his efforts once he feels he has consolidated his grip on eastern Ukraine. But hopefully those longer range rocket artillery pieces of yours should arrive long before he can achieve that goal, some shore to ship stuff would be nice too.
@no1marauder saidAgain, the Soviets held all of Afghanistan but failed to achieve their objectives - but at least they took the population centers and lines of communication. Russia hasn’t even done that in Ukraine.
The longer the war lasts, the more Ukranian territory they will hold. So they'll have to be offered something in return for leaving them; this is called "a negotiation".
Japan took a lot of territory in WW2 but they didn’t keep it.
@no1marauder saidYeah I know but their ultimate goal there will be Odesa and then link up with Transnistria turning Ukraine into a land locked country which will be unacceptable to Ukraine and its supporters.
Russia already holds most of Ukraine's coast and has securely blockaded the rest.
Russia will ultimate have to decide how long they wish to carry on losing men and equipment to hang on to someone else’s coastline. Permanent Isolation from its natural market place in the west is another price it will have to consider. The EU has now managed to drop 90% if its Russian oil consumption, gas is more problematic and will take longer but it’s only a matter of time.
@kevcvs57 saidPeter Zeihan says they are trying to lock up choke points in Poland and Romania. If that’s true they still have a very long way to go.
Yeah I know but their ultimate goal there will be Odesa and then link up with Transnistria turning Ukraine into a land locked country which will be unacceptable to Ukraine and its supporters.
Russia will ultimate have to decide how long they wish to carry on losing men and equipment to hang on to someone else’s coastline. Permanent Isolation from its natural market place i ...[text shortened]... ussian oil consumption, gas is more problematic and will take longer but it’s only a matter of time.
@athousandyoung saidI'm not sure why you keep trying to compare this conventional war with the Afghan 1980s insurgency. I see little evidence of guerrilla type operations in the occupied areas of the Ukraine, the population of which are arguably ambivalent over whether they prefer to be part of the Ukraine or Russia. At any rate, if Ukranian forces are decisively beaten so that Russia occupies most of the country it will have catastrophic consequences for the Ukraine even if your finger crossing wish that its natives wage a decade or so long insurgency comes true.
Again, the Soviets held all of Afghanistan but failed to achieve their objectives - but at least they took the population centers and lines of communication. Russia hasn’t even done that in Ukraine.
Japan took a lot of territory in WW2 but they didn’t keep it.
Japan was defeated by a coalition of nations which dwarfed it in population and economic resources. There is no such coalition to defeat Russia available except if they wish to trigger probable nuclear war (something Japan could not do).
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@no1marauder saidWell I’ve tried comparing it with the British occupation of Ireland and the American invasion and occupation of Iraq but for some reason no other event in history is acceptable as an analogy. Ukraine is magically different and special for some unspecified reason.
I'm not sure why you keep trying to compare this conventional war with the Afghan 1980s insurgency. I see little evidence of guerrilla type operations in the occupied areas of the Ukraine, the population of which are arguably ambivalent over whether they prefer to be part of the Ukraine or Russia. At any rate, if Ukranian forces are decisively beaten so that Russia occupi ...[text shortened]... Russia available except if they wish to trigger probable nuclear war (something Japan could not do).
But then I remembered YOU mentioning the idea before the invasion that it would be like the USSR in Afghanistan if Russia invaded Ukraine. That’s when I pointed out Russia is not the USSR and they might try a long term ‘frozen conflict’ approach which is a relatively new Russian strategic innovation.
NOW suddenly that’s unthinkable. I don’t know why you changed your mind.
I don’t care what Ukraine does honestly. Russian results just aren’t anything like what Russia wants the world to think they are capable of and Ukraine didn’t roll over like we all thought it would. Considering we in the West have been stockpiling weapons specifically designed for this approximate scenario for half a century…why not send them to Ukraine?
@no1marauder saidWhy do you keep pushing Russian propaganda the insurgency comes after the defeat of a countries regular armed forces. Civilians in the occupied areas are two busy trying to get back to Ukrainian territory before they are raped, murdered or transported deeper into Russian held territories, if they haven’t already died in or fled from the indiscriminate Russian bombardment.
I'm not sure why you keep trying to compare this conventional war with the Afghan 1980s insurgency. I see little evidence of guerrilla type operations in the occupied areas of the Ukraine, the population of which are arguably ambivalent over whether they prefer to be part of the Ukraine or Russia. At any rate, if Ukranian forces are decisively beaten so that Russia occupi ...[text shortened]... Russia available except if they wish to trigger probable nuclear war (something Japan could not do).
Are you still indulging in Putin’s initial fantasy that the ‘Russian liberators’ would be welcomed with open arms during their flower festooned cruise into Kyiv.
It must be difficult for an old comrade like yourself to recognise the truth about Putin and what the Soviets were and are really all about.
@athousandyoung saidThat’s because you’d then be able to point to the hypocrisy of No1s position. Can you imagine him demanding that the native populations subject to those violent invasions negotiate away land and sovereignty to the aggressor. No for No1s purposes the Ukrainian people must be less deserving of sovereignty than all those other peoples, this has to be a war of at least equal blame and not the blatant invasive aggression inflicted by a stronger state upon a weaker one.
Well I’ve tried comparing it with the British occupation of Ireland and the American invasion and occupation of Iraq but for some reason no other event in history is acceptable as an analogy. Ukraine is magically different and special for some unspecified reason.
But then I remembered YOU mentioning the idea before the invasion that it would be like the USSR in Afg ...[text shortened]... specifically designed for this approximate scenario for half a century…why not send them to Ukraine?