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  1. 31 Oct '16 22:20 / 1 edit
    So far no real movement.

    http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/clinton-emails-comey-poll-politico-morning-consult-230519

    http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/data-points/poll-clinton-maintains-national-lead-over-trump-despite-fbi-letter-n675771


    I'm thinking that to the extent her email controversy is going to affect HRC's campaign, the voter opinions of it are baked in. Maybe a few undecideds on the fence will move away from her, but certain no hemorrhaging.
  2. Subscriber FreakyKBH
    Acquired Taste...
    01 Nov '16 00:37
    Originally posted by Kunsoo
    So far no real movement.

    http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/clinton-emails-comey-poll-politico-morning-consult-230519

    http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/data-points/poll-clinton-maintains-national-lead-over-trump-despite-fbi-letter-n675771


    I'm thinking that to the extent her email controversy is going to affect HRC's campaign, the voter opinions o ...[text shortened]... d in. Maybe a few undecideds on the fence will move away from her, but certain no hemorrhaging.
    The MSM is the worst possible place from which to get information.
    Any 'reporting' they broadcast is a simple reading from the script of much, much higher ups.
    Their polls are tainted, if even conducted at all.
    If they thought they could get away with it, they'll have her in the White House as the clear-cut winner while she's sitting in a jail cell.

    Work release program?
  3. 02 Nov '16 14:08
    Originally posted by FreakyKBH
    The MSM is the worst possible place from which to get information.
    Any 'reporting' they broadcast is a simple reading from the script of much, much higher ups.
    Their polls are tainted, if even conducted at all.
    If they thought they could get away with it, they'll have her in the White House as the clear-cut winner while she's sitting in a jail cell.

    Work release program?
    Considering how clueless voters are I think these polls are probably correct.

    Trump once said he could win even if he murdered someone on TV, but I think that really applies to Hillary.
  4. Subscriber mchill
    Infinitorum
    02 Nov '16 14:29 / 1 edit
    Originally posted by FreakyKBH
    The MSM is the worst possible place from which to get information.
    Any 'reporting' they broadcast is a simple reading from the script of much, much higher ups.
    Their polls are tainted, if even conducted at all.
    If they thought they could get away with it, they'll have her in the White House as the clear-cut winner while she's sitting in a jail cell.

    Work release program?
    Sorry to break the bad news to you, but the fact is there is very little movement here. Trump is still down by 4-6 points. The reason for this is simple: The GOP has played this email card too many times in the last year. Like the little boy that cried wolf too many times, people are just ignoring them now. A smarter course would have simply let law enforcement folks do their jobs, and stay out of it, but Republicans are not known for their intellect.
  5. 02 Nov '16 14:53
    Originally posted by Kunsoo
    So far no real movement.
    Actually Trump's chances according to 538's aggregate have gone up significantly, although it is not clear whether this is due to Comey.
  6. Standard member sh76
    Civis Americanus Sum
    02 Nov '16 16:04
    Originally posted by mchill
    Sorry to break the bad news to you, but the fact is there is very little movement here. Trump is still down by 4-6 points. The reason for this is simple: The GOP has played this email card too many times in the last year. Like the little boy that cried wolf too many times, people are just ignoring them now. A smarter course would have simply let law enforcement folks do their jobs, and stay out of it, but Republicans are not known for their intellect.
    I don't know how much of an effect Comey's revelation will have on the election, but the idea that "allowing" (if "Republicans" in fact, had any say in the matter) Comey to make the revelation is bad strategy is downright insane. Are you saying that last Friday's revelations could be a net NEGATIVE for Trump?
  7. Subscriber FreakyKBH
    Acquired Taste...
    02 Nov '16 16:06
    Originally posted by mchill
    Sorry to break the bad news to you, but the fact is there is very little movement here. Trump is still down by 4-6 points. The reason for this is simple: The GOP has played this email card too many times in the last year. Like the little boy that cried wolf too many times, people are just ignoring them now. A smarter course would have simply let law enforcement folks do their jobs, and stay out of it, but Republicans are not known for their intellect.
    It's not bad news if it's not really news.
    More accurate: "I've got some bad propaganda for you..."

    It might indeed be a "card" in the hands of political miscreants, but this is a card which has the added bonus of being absolutely true.
    These emails aren't being manufactured by the politically minded: they have been hacked from the source.
    They offer an honest glimpse of people's true intentions and motivations which publicly are never acknowledged, even if their actions align directly with the words found in private.
    When the various politicians act on these motivations, they publicly spin those actions in attempt to disguise their intentions.
    Of course, they are constantly called out on their spin, but here at last they are faced with their own private words which explain their public policies--- now there's no one to fight against... except themselves!
    At last, their own words which are only discussed privately are brought to light and they will have to give an account accordingly.
  8. Standard member sh76
    Civis Americanus Sum
    02 Nov '16 16:07 / 3 edits
    Originally posted by KazetNagorra
    Actually Trump's chances according to 538's aggregate have gone up significantly, although it is not clear whether this is due to Comey.
    Avoiding the "post hoc ergo proptor hoc" fallacy is always difficult in political analyses, but the evidence is clearly that the race is tightening, though Trump is still at least a 2:1 underdog.

    My very educated guess is that the Comey revelation has hurt Clinton substantially and may have increased Trump's chance of winning the election by about 50% (perhaps from 20% to 30% ).
  9. Standard member sh76
    Civis Americanus Sum
    02 Nov '16 16:10
    Incidentally, having viewed the 538 odds several times a day for many months now, it seems to take at least a week for the effect of any one event to fully be reflected in Nate's model. There's even a lag of 3-4 days between a polling trend and when the polling trend is reflected in the model.
  10. 02 Nov '16 16:41 / 1 edit
    Originally posted by sh76
    Incidentally, having viewed the 538 odds several times a day for many months now, it seems to take at least a week for the effect of any one event to fully be reflected in Nate's model. There's even a lag of 3-4 days between a polling trend and when the polling trend is reflected in the model.
    This should be expected as the polls which are aggregated by 538 don't instantly capture recent developments - it takes time to conduct a poll, and the aggregate has to strike a balance between including as many polls as possible and including only recent (and thus fewer) polls.

    I would expect the odds to tighten a bit more, but I still have my popcorn ready for more revelations that might affect the election. I read some rumours that someone is sitting on a tape of Trump saying the n-word. Who knows what is going to get leaked in the coming week?
  11. Subscriber kmax87
    You've got Kevin
    03 Nov '16 13:06 / 1 edit
    Originally posted by sh76
    Incidentally, having viewed the 538 odds several times a day for many months now, it seems to take at least a week for the effect of any one event to fully be reflected in Nate's model. There's even a lag of 3-4 days between a polling trend and when the polling trend is reflected in the model.
    If 3 to 4 days makes the magic number thrn this weekend seems primetime for the final big revelation. I'm buying popcorn too. Roll tape!
  12. Subscriber no1marauder
    It's Nice to Be Nice
    04 Nov '16 00:24
    Originally posted by kmax87
    If 3 to 4 days makes the magic number thrn this weekend seems primetime for the final big revelation. I'm buying popcorn too. Roll tape!
    This baby is allegedly waiting to see the light of day: http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/10/09/is_there_apprentice_footage_of_donald_trump_saying_the_n_word.html

    Probably wouldn't hurt him much among his supporters but might gag a few independents.
  13. Subscriber FreakyKBH
    Acquired Taste...
    04 Nov '16 00:39
    Originally posted by no1marauder
    This baby is allegedly waiting to see the light of day: http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/10/09/is_there_apprentice_footage_of_donald_trump_saying_the_n_word.html

    Probably wouldn't hurt him much among his supporters but might gag a few independents.
    Five million dollars to expose Trump saying the word 'nigger'?
    You really think that's even a drop in the bucket for those currying favor with the proven criminal, Clinton?
    The pedophile Clintons?
    The Lolita Express frequent flyer program holders, Clintons?

    Hilary could write that check last week.

    Have something approaching a basic clue, will you?
    Or, as they say in the hood...
    Nigger, please.
  14. Subscriber no1marauder
    It's Nice to Be Nice
    04 Nov '16 01:28
    Originally posted by FreakyKBH
    Five million dollars to expose Trump saying the word 'nigger'?
    You really think that's even a drop in the bucket for those currying favor with the proven criminal, Clinton?
    The pedophile Clintons?
    The Lolita Express frequent flyer program holders, Clintons?

    Hilary could write that check last week.

    Have something approaching a basic clue, will you?
    Or, as they say in the hood...
    Nigger, please.
    A good conspiracy nut like yourself might consider when it would be most politically advantageous to release such a video.

    Weekend before the election? Hmmmm
  15. Subscriber FreakyKBH
    Acquired Taste...
    04 Nov '16 01:33
    Originally posted by no1marauder
    A good conspiracy nut like yourself might consider when it would be most politically advantageous to release such a video.

    Weekend before the election? Hmmmm
    Oh, so you speak conspiracy, do you?
    The man is going to landslide that crook into irrelevance, and then when the scales are tared, she's either going to end up losing her life for the traitor she is, or at least in jail until the Parkinson mercifully ends her miserable existence.

    That sounds a bit harsh, huh.