Please turn on javascript in your browser to play chess.
Debates Forum

Debates Forum

  1. Subscriber no1marauder
    It's Nice to Be Nice
    05 Mar '16 21:59
    Another exciting US Presidential election thread! (You Euros know you love it!)

    Posted in another thread:

    Today:

    Democrats: Kansas, Louisiana, Nebraska

    Republicans: Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine

    Hasn't been much polling in any of these States except Louisiana where Hillary should romp and Trump holds a double digit lead over Cruz with Rubio and Kasich far back. Bernie might have a shot in Kansas and Nebraska; Trump might lose a State or two.


    About 29% in from Kansas Republicans (though none from its most populous county) and Ted Cruz has a wide lead over Trump so far, about 50%-25% with Rubio and Kasich far back at 13% and 10% respectively. If it holds up, there could be an anti-Trump "wall" being built in the middle of the country from Texas to Minnesota.
  2. Subscriber no1marauder
    It's Nice to Be Nice
    05 Mar '16 22:51 / 1 edit
    Cruz has won Kansas big with more than 50% with 62% of the precincts reporting. Not a shock he would win there as he had won the neighboring States of Iowa and Oklahoma but to beat Trump by about 2:1 there is a surprise.

    EDIT: Iowa doesn't quite border on Kansas (part of Missouri is in the way) but it's geographically close and has a lot of evangelicals just like Iowa.
  3. Subscriber no1marauder
    It's Nice to Be Nice
    05 Mar '16 23:38
    Though there aren't many official vote totals, reports are coming in that Cruz is ahead of Trump in Maine of all places. This would be quite a shock and along with Cruz's big win in Kansas might show that the Donald's "fade" has actually started.
  4. Subscriber no1marauder
    It's Nice to Be Nice
    06 Mar '16 00:07
    Amusing comment on 538 referencing Rubio's tendency to give speeches claiming victory when he finishes second or third:

    If this continues for Rubio, he might have to give a victory drop out speech tomorrow.
  5. Subscriber no1marauder
    It's Nice to Be Nice
    06 Mar '16 00:30 / 1 edit
    With 45% of the precincts reporting in Maine, Cruz holds a 42%-34% lead over Trump in what would be the biggest upset of the campaign so far. Kasich has 14% and Rubio less than 9%. Early returns from Kentucky have Trump with a slight lead over Cruz with Rubio and Kasich far back.

    If these results hold, in all three States Trump and Cruz combined will get about 75% of the vote. Is it now a two man race?

    EDIT: 100% of the precincts in Kansas for the GOP reporting:

    Cruz: 48.2%
    Trump: 23.3%
    Rubio: 16.7%
    Kasich: 10.7%
  6. 06 Mar '16 00:32
    Originally posted by no1marauder
    With 45% of the precincts reporting in Maine, Cruz holds a 42%-34% lead over Trump in what would be the biggest upset of the campaign so far. Kasich has 14% and Rubio less than 9%. Early returns from Kentucky have Trump with a slight lead over Cruz with Rubio and Kasich far back.

    If these results hold, in all three States Trump and Cruz combined will get about 75% of the vote. Is it now a two man race?
    Looks like it, and Cruz gets stronger as the field narrows, especially among the R faithful.
  7. Subscriber no1marauder
    It's Nice to Be Nice
    06 Mar '16 00:40 / 1 edit
    Originally posted by normbenign
    Looks like it, and Cruz gets stronger as the field narrows, especially among the R faithful.
    One wonders if the implicit penis size reference was finally the outrage that turned Republicans against Trump. Frank Luntz's GOP focus group was asked to describe Thursday's debate in one word and virtually all of them used terms like "embarrassing" "disgusting" "shameful" etc. etc. etc.
  8. 06 Mar '16 00:43
    Originally posted by no1marauder
    One wonders if the implicit penis size reference was finally the outrage that turned Republicans against Trump. Frank Luntz's GOP focus group was asked to describe Thursday's debate in one word and virtually all of that used terms like "embarrassing" "disgusting" "shameful" etc. etc. etc.
    I guess it's fair to speculate, but in the end, only the voter at the machine knows the answer.
  9. Subscriber no1marauder
    It's Nice to Be Nice
    06 Mar '16 01:11
    Trump seems likely to win Kentucky; he's held a 5-6 point lead over Cruz since the counting began. Again Rubio and Kasich are far back.

    Bernie has jumped to a sizable lead in early returns from Nebraska.
  10. Standard member sh76
    Civis Americanus Sum
    06 Mar '16 05:04
    There is one last chance to stop Trump. If Rubio gets out now and throws his weight behind Cruz, maybe he can beat Trump.

    Alternatively, if Kasich can win Ohio and help force a brokered convention, maybe the party would choose Kasich.
  11. 06 Mar '16 05:32 / 1 edit
    Originally posted by sh76
    There is one last chance to stop Trump. If Rubio gets out now and throws his weight behind Cruz, maybe he can beat Trump.

    Alternatively, if Kasich can win Ohio and help force a brokered convention, maybe the party would choose Kasich.
    I don't think Rubio has it in him to put his support behind Cruz, but maybe I'm wrong.

    If the GOP is going to win, they need Cruz.
  12. Standard member Soothfast
    0,1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,
    06 Mar '16 06:13
    I'm happy to see Bernie winning Nebraska and especially Kansas by such large margins. The only poll done in Kansas, in late February, had Hillary leading by 10 points, but Bernie won the state by over 35 points. And moreover it was record turnout on the Democratic side in Kansas -- topping even 2008. Sanders is right: when turnout is high, he wins.

    I expect Bernie will win the Maine caucus handily tomorrow (i.e. Sunday). This is going to boost morale for the troops, not to mention donations, going into Tuesday. The fight against Hillary Incorporated is not over yet!
  13. Standard member Soothfast
    0,1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,
    06 Mar '16 06:16
    Originally posted by whodey
    I don't think Rubio has it in him to put his support behind Cruz, but maybe I'm wrong.

    If the GOP is going to win, they need Cruz.
    Cruz is such a dirty little douche nozzle, I expect that Rubio will stick it out all the way to a brokered convention and hope for lady luck to smile upon him with the spin of a roulette wheel. That's certainly Kasisch's dream.
  14. Subscriber no1marauder
    It's Nice to Be Nice
    06 Mar '16 06:29
    Originally posted by sh76
    There is one last chance to stop Trump. If Rubio gets out now and throws his weight behind Cruz, maybe he can beat Trump.

    Alternatively, if Kasich can win Ohio and help force a brokered convention, maybe the party would choose Kasich.
    Rubio will surely stay in and see if he can win the winner take all Florida primary.

    Ditto for Kasich and Ohio.

    It appears doubtful that Cruz could win either one on one versus Trump though perhaps the Donald will free fall. Tuesday in Michigan and Mississippi, two States that would appear Trump friendly based on results so far, could be telling.
  15. Subscriber no1marauder
    It's Nice to Be Nice
    06 Mar '16 06:34
    Originally posted by Soothfast
    I'm happy to see Bernie winning Nebraska and especially Kansas by such large margins. The only poll done in Kansas, in late February, had Hillary leading by 10 points, but Bernie won the state by over 35 points. And moreover it was record turnout on the Democratic side in Kansas -- topping even 2008. Sanders is right: when turnout is high, he wins.

    ...[text shortened]... mention donations, going into Tuesday. The fight against Hillary Incorporated is not over yet!
    Unless Bernie can stop losing black voters by 60%, he'll have no chance to win the primaries in the large Northern States that he must to offset Hillary's delegate hauls from her lopsided victories in the South. Sanders might have won 2 out of 3 tonight, but Clinton still wound up winning more delegates than he did.