Originally posted by sh76
It all comes down to Ohio, Virginia and Colorado. Romney needs a sweep. If he does it, he wins. Otherwise, he loses.
Yes, I know there are mathematical permutations by which Obama could win Florida and lose the election based on some bizarre combination or lose those three states and win Florida or NC. But those scenarios are not going to happen. If Obama w ...[text shortened]... ins NV, he'll win CO, so I'm not even considering the possibility of winning NV and losing CO.
I don't know about that. Isn't Wisconsin in play now with Ryan in the race? New Hampshire? And I don't think Nevada is certain for Obama, despite the fact that they do seem to be blaming their hard times on the Republicans - not sure why it's true for them and not some other states.
Romney has pulled out of Michigan and Pennsylvania, the latter of which surprises me because the polls are probably going to be off if the voter ID is going to require elderly people to spend hours in line and spending $65.00 to qualify to vote. Not everybody is related to Jim Cramer.
But if I was to come up with a must-win state for both sides, I would say that the real battleground is in Ohio.
There is a Rasmussen poll, which I think is an outlier despite the fact that they tend to favor Republicans in their methodology, which has Romney up by 3 points in Missouri. I don't really think Missouri is going to be in serious play, but it will be bad news if Romney is forced to expend any resources and time to shore that one up. Same with Obama in Connecticut of all places.